There have been plenty of terrible contracts handed out in free agency, as is the case most offseasons. But there have also been plenty of valuable contracts signed, especially with many players taking one-year deals in hopes of cashing in when the salary cap ceiling is expected to take a significant jump next summer. Which free-agent deals have the potential to provide the most value in 2023-24?
Tyler Bertuzzi
Contract: One year, $5.5 million
The thought was Tyler Bertuzzi would get a long-term deal, perhaps with the Boston Bruins, in free agency. But when the market wasn’t there, he and his camp pivoted and signed a one-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs at a cap hit of $5.5 million. He finished this past season with 30 points in 50 games, though he played well with the Bruins after getting moved there at the trade deadline, totaling 16 points in 21 contests.
Bertuzzi has struggled to stay on the ice over the last three seasons; he’s only played 127 games. But he’s been quite productive, averaging 28 goals and 64 points per 82 games. His play has been worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of plus-22.6 since 2020, so he’s been valuable, especially offensively.
Having taken a one-year deal with the Maple Leafs, Bertuzzi will get chances to play alongside Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. If he can stay healthy, there’s potential for him to reach the 30/30 mark he did during the 2021-22 season. It might lead to a payday with another team next summer, but the Maple Leafs should get proper value out of him with this short-term deal.
Blake Wheeler
Contract: One year, $800,000 (plus incentives)
Since the New York Rangers are tight on cap space this summer, they had to find value buys on the free agent market. One of those was Blake Wheeler, who agreed to a one-year deal at a cap hit of $800,000. While he isn’t the player he was in his prime, the 36-year-old winger can still produce offensively, finishing with 55 points in 72 games in 2022-23.
Wheeler isn’t without his flaws. He’s a defensive liability, with his even-strength defense worth a GAR of minus-9.6 over the last three years. He’s still one of the league’s better passers, but he has trouble turning his own chances into goals. Still, his even-strength offense has been worth a GAR of 11.6, and he should help the Rangers’ power play.
If that sounds familiar to Rangers fans, it’s because they’ve had more than a few similar players over the years. Had the Rangers signed him to anything above $2 million, it would’ve been difficult to include him on this list based on some of his shortcomings. But at $800,000 for one year, he should add some offensive value this coming season.
Matt Duchene
Contract: One year, $3 million
The Nashville Predators buying out the remaining three years of Matt Duchene‘s contract was a shock to almost everyone. He had a productive 2022-23, finishing with 56 points in 71 games. But new general manager Barry Trotz was clearly looking to reset things in Nashville by moving out some veterans and signing others like Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Schenn in free agency.
As surprising as it was to see Duchene hit the free agent market, it wasn’t surprising to see him find a landing spot within hours of Day 1 of free agency on July 1. The Dallas Stars, who were just in the Western Conference Final this season, signed him to one of the best contracts this summer for one year at $3 million.
Duchene finished this season with a total GAR of plus-8.3, a decrease from the plus-17.4 he totaled in 2021-22, but still a good number. He can play center or either wing position, so Stars head coach Pete DeBoer can use him where he’d like in the top-9. If at center, a 1-2 punch with Roope Hintz could be one of the best center duos in the Western Conference. The Stars were already a bonafide contender before adding Duchene, but they should easily be one of the favorites to win the West in 2023-24.
Kailer Yamamoto
Contract: One year, $1.5 million
In desperate need of cap space, the Edmonton Oilers had some difficult decisions to make this offseason. One was not tendering a qualifying offer to Kailer Yamamoto, their first-round pick at the 2017 draft. His previous cap hit was $3.1 million and came with a qualifying offer of $3.2 million, something the Oilers couldn’t afford.
Related: 7 Worst Contracts Signed in Free Agency
But even though Yamamoto struggled with injuries this past season, he finished with 25 points in 58 games — a 35-point pace over 82 games. That’s not far off from the 41 points that came with 20 goals in 81 games a season ago. He finished with a total GAR of 6.1 this past season, which would’ve put him on pace for a GAR of 8.2 over 82 games.
He was a good value buy in free agency, which the Seattle Kraken seemed to think too. If he can stay healthy, he could add 40-45 points on a Kraken squad without many star players but plenty of depth. He should fit in somewhere in their top-nine, and if he clicks, he’ll likely provide more value than his $1.5 million cap hit.
Erik Gustafsson
Contract: One year, $825,000
Another one of the Rangers’ depth moves, and this one has the potential to pay off more than Wheeler’s. Gustafsson spent most of the season playing for the Washington Capitals under Peter Laviolette, who’s now the Rangers’ coach. Between the Capitals and Maple Leafs, he totaled seven goals and 42 points in 71 games.
Gustafsson has bounced around from team to team, but he has been an underrated puck-moving defenseman in the NHL. This year, his defensive game went up a level, making him one of the better two-way defenders in the league while playing second-pair minutes. He finished with a total GAR of 11.8, placing him 28th in the NHL among blueliners and ranking in the 85th percentile in GAR:
Evolving-Hockey projected Gustafsson for a four-year deal at a cap hit of $4.599 million this offseason. Even for one year, they had him at $1.577 million. He did struggle after getting traded to the Maple Leafs at the deadline this year, but I’d expect him to look closer to the defenseman he was in Washington with Laviolette since the two are reuniting in New York. The Rangers should get much more from him than his $825,000 cap hit suggests.
Evan Rodrigues
Contract: four years, $3 million cap hit
Evan Rodrigues always seemed to be a player that got undervalued in free agency. But this year, a team seemed to know his worth. After producing at a 47-point pace with the Colorado Avalanche in 2022-23, the Florida Panthers inked him to a four-year contract at a cap hit of $3 million.
Rodrigues had long been one of the more underrated bottom-six forwards in the NHL. But his scoring has picked up over the last couple of years, making him a more viable top-nine option. He’s one of the better rush players in the league and has excellent two-way impacts at even strength. The only downside is he’s a high-volume shooter who doesn’t always convert his chances:
Evolving-Hockey had Rodrigues projected at a cap hit of $4.843 million on a four-year deal. After trading Anthony Duclair to the Sharks, the Panthers opted to replace him with Rodrigues, a wise choice on their part. There are some questions if he can keep up his scoring rates from the last two seasons. But the Panthers have enough talent up front to suggest he can chip in 15 to 20 goals and 40 to 45 points. That’s good value for someone making $3 million a year.
Daniel Sprong
Contract: One year, $2 million
A Daniel Sprong breakout season has been in the cards for a while, and it finally came to fruition in 2022-23. After putting up efficient scoring rates for a few seasons, it translated on the scoresheet, as he finished with 21 goals and 46 points in 66 games — a 26-goal, 57-point pace over 82 games. The Kraken likely couldn’t afford to pay him, so the Detroit Red Wings pounced in free agency and signed him to a one-year deal worth $2 million.
Sprong finished this season with a total GAR of 12.8. He averaged 3.10 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, making him the Kraken’s most efficient point producer, and 1.45 goals per 60, making him their second-most efficient goal scorer behind Jared McCann.
Most of Sprong’s minutes came in a bottom-six role this season, but if he gets a shot alongside Dylan Larkin in Detroit, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue being one of the NHL’s more efficient scoring wingers. If he comes anywhere close to his pace from 2022-23, the Red Wings will find incredible value for him at $2 million.
Michael Bunting
Contract: Three years, $4.5 million cap hit
If you thought the Carolina Hurricanes were already annoying to play against, signing Michael Bunting doesn’t make it any easier. He had a breakout year in 2021-22, finishing with 23 goals and 63 points while getting minutes alongside some of the Maple Leafs’ best players. His production this season slipped a bit to 46 points, but he still totaled 23 goals.
Bunting finished with a total GAR of plus-25.6 in 2021-22, an outrageous number that got propped up by playing next to Matthews, Nylander, Marner, etc. That came down to a more sustainable plus-8.1 this season, a number he should be able to replicate over the three years the Hurricanes signed him to.
Bunting struggles on the rush, but for a team like the Hurricanes that barely plays off the rush, it shouldn’t matter. They’re a grit-and-grind forechecking team, something he does very well. And he’s quite good at generating shots in the offensive zone.
At this point, there’s enough to suggest Bunting is a consistent 20-25 goal scorer. Evolving-Hockey projected him for a four-year contract at a cap hit of $5.436 million. At three years, it would’ve been $5.127 million, so the Hurricanes got good value for someone who fits their system and should put up 20-plus goals and close to 50 points.
Value Still to Be Had in Free Agency
There are still a couple of notable free agents, such as Vladimir Tarasenko and Tomáš Tatar, who could make this list, depending on what they sign for. But to this point, these have been some of the better contracts agreed to in a year where plenty of teams dished out some terrible free-agent deals.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey
