While we’re still a ways away from the NHL trade deadline in early March, it’s still not too early to begin thinking about 2024 unrestricted free agents to keep an eye on as trade targets throughout the 2023-24 season. It’s a stacked UFA class for 2024, and a few pending UFAs who play on teams that’ll likely be out of the playoff picture are worth monitoring.
Victor Olofsson
The Buffalo Sabres will likely be in the playoff hunt this season. But even if they are, Victor Olofsson is someone they could move for a couple of reasons. One) If a prospect like Jiri Kulich is ready for the NHL, they could trade Olofsson to open up a roster spot. This would also apply to making room for Jack Quinn once he returns from an injury in a couple of months.
Two) Olofsson’s name has been in the rumor mill for quite some time (from ‘Victor Olofsson and his camp expect a trade from Sabres, but it could take a while’ – The Buffalo News, 6/12/2023). The Sabres just haven’t found a suitable trade partner for him. He’s coming off a 28-goal, 40-point season and could have value as a middle-six upgrade for a playoff contender.
Though Olofsson can pot 20-plus goals and 40-50 points a season, he doesn’t provide much value at even strength. He can score at that game state, but he’s very much a passenger instead of a play driver. His added value comes via the power play. That could appeal to a team looking to upgrade their man advantage ahead of the postseason, though the Sabres would likely have to retain on his $4.75 million cap hit.
Kevin Labanc
On the Oct. 3, 2023, episode of DFO Rundown, Frank Seravalli mentioned that the San Jose Sharks have been trying to trade Kevin Labanc for years. But like the Sabres with Olofsson, they haven’t been able to strike the right deal.
With the Sharks likely heading for a top-three pick in the 2024 draft, this season may be when they find the right trade partner for Labanc since he’s entering the final year of his contract. It helps that he rebounded a bit last season, finishing with 15 goals and 33 points in 72 games. But they will need him to build off that to increase his trade value.
Fortunately for the Sharks, Labanc has always been one of their better even-strength players, even during these lean years. He’s a good two-way winger, and he’s shown he can be an efficient scorer at that game state, though that has been inconsistent over the last three seasons. The Sharks will likely have to retain on his $4.725 million cap hit to push a deal through, but he should help a contender upgrade their middle-six, so expect him to have suitors.
Adam Henrique
Like the Sharks, the Anaheim Ducks will likely be heading for the draft lottery again. They have a stacked prospect pool and a bright future, but they’re still a year or two away from making some noise in the Western Conference, meaning they should be sellers.
One of their best trade chips heading into 2023-24 will be Adam Henrique, who finished with 22 goals and 38 points in 62 games a season ago — a 29-goal, 50-point pace over 82 games. Even at 33 years old, he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.
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Henrique has always been a plus finisher and has continued to show that during the Ducks’ down years. His cap hit of $5.875 million is a bit pricey, but he brings quite a bit to the table. He can play left wing or center, is good on faceoffs, having won 53.8 percent of his draws over the last three seasons, is an efficient five-on-five scorer, and can play anywhere in the top-nine. The Ducks should have plenty of suitors for him, despite his cap hit, if they trade him ahead of the deadline.
Jason Zucker
The Arizona Coyotes may be an improved team in 2023-24, but chances are they’ll be sellers come the deadline. That means Jason Zucker, who signed a one-year, $5.3 million deal with the Coyotes as a UFA this summer, could get moved elsewhere in the weeks leading up to the deadline.
Zucker had a bounce-back season with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2022-23, totaling 27 goals and 48 points in 78 games. He was one of their best chance creators, averaging 6.24 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, ranking him first on the team. As evidenced by his 27 goals, he converted on his chances too.
If Zucker is pacing for 25-plus goals again in the desert, the Coyotes will have a valuable trade chip on their hands. He should get plenty of top-six minutes, perhaps alongside Logan Cooley, who the Coyotes drafted third overall in the 2022 draft. Cooley has a chance to be the team’s most dynamic player this season, which should benefit Zucker and help increase his production and trade value.
Jakub Vrana
It’s a big year for Jakub Vrana. His tenure in Detroit with the Red Wings did not go as hoped, and he needs to build back some of his value in a contract year. There are signs he’s starting to do so, as he played well for the St. Louis Blues to close 2022-23 after getting dealt there by the Red Wings ahead of the 2023 trade deadline.
Vrana finished with 10 goals and 14 points in 20 games with the Blues — a 41-goal, 57-point pace over 82 games. The Blues should have a pretty formidable offense this season, but their defense and goaltending are significant question marks and could drag the team down, even in a weak Central Division.
If the Blues are out of the playoff race, Vrana could be one of the most valuable trade chips in the NHL. The Blues have his contract retained at 50 percent, bringing his cap hit down to $2.625 million, and they can retain 50 percent on that.
Vrana may not score at a 41-goal pace again, but don’t doubt his goal-scoring ability. He was the second-most efficient goal scorer in the NHL over the last three seasons, averaging 1.52 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Only Auston Matthews has scored goals at a more efficient rate than him, which will appeal to teams looking to add a cost-effective scorer.
Noah Hanifin
TSN and The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported earlier this summer that all signs were pointing toward Noah Hanifin not re-signing with the Calgary Flames (From ‘LeBrun: Erik Karlsson ‘open-minded’ on trade destinations, plus latest rumblings on Meier, Barbashev, Hellebuyck, more’ – The Athletic, 6/16/2023).
There hasn’t been much news since then, but if Hanifin does remain unsigned heading toward the deadline, the Flames will have a decision to make on him, even if they’re in a playoff spot. He finished last season with seven goals and 38 points in 71 games and is still a highly regarded top-four defenseman.
The issue with the Flames trying to move Hanifin this offseason was his $4.95 million cap hit. Most teams, especially contenders, are tight to the cap and couldn’t afford to take on the final year of his contract. But that should change as we approach the deadline and teams accrue cap space. If he still wants out of Calgary, then it seems likely that GM Craig Conroy will move him.
Anthony Duclair
Anthony Duclair struggled a bit last season, finishing with two goals and nine points in 20 games. But he was working his way back from a torn Achilles he suffered training during the 2022 offseason. Now he’s fully healthy and should help the San Jose Sharks, who acquired him from the Florida Panthers this offseason.
Duclair can pot 25-30 goals and 55-plus points when he’s healthy. The Sharks may be a bottom-feeder and heading toward the draft lottery again, but there is some top-six talent for Duclair to work with in San Jose. Expect him to bounce back if that’s the case and if he’s consistently playing alongside Logan Couture or Tomáš Hertl.
What will make Duclair appealing to contenders is his cap hit, which is $3 million for the final year of his deal. Even teams tight on the cap should have the means to afford that around the deadline. If the Sharks decide to trade him, which seems like a strong possibility, expect them to get a decent return.
David Perron
The Red Wings were one of the most active teams this offseason, if not the most active, with their most notable move being the acquisition of Alex DeBrincat from the Ottawa Senators. The Atlantic Division isn’t the gauntlet it once was and should be more balanced this season, but the Red Wings may still be a year away from being playoff contenders.
Most sportsbooks have the Red Wings’ over/under around 85.5 points for the 2023-24 season. That won’t be enough to make the playoffs, meaning GM Steve Yzerman could trade some players on expiring contracts. One of their more notable pending UFAs is David Perron, who finished with 24 goals and 56 points in 82 games a season ago.
Not only is Perron still a legitimate top-six winger at 35 years old, but he has plenty of playoff experience, having won the Stanley Cup in 2019 with the St. Louis Blues and having played for the Vegas Golden Knights when they made the Final in their inaugural season in 2017-18.
Given his production and playoff pedigree, Perron could be a top trade target if the Red Wings are out of the playoff race headed toward the deadline. His $4.75 million cap hit may be a tad pricey, but Yzerman has shown a willingness to retain on expiring deals in the past.
Tyson Barrie
It was a bit of a surprise when the Edmonton Oilers announced they had traded Tyson Barrie for Mattias Ekholm ahead of last season’s trade deadline. Now, a season later, he could be someone who finds himself on the move again at the 2024 deadline.
Barrie has long been one of the better offensive defensemen in the league, as was the case a season ago when he finished with 13 goals and 55 points in 85 games between the Oilers and Nashville Predators. His defensive game was always a liability, but he posted some of the best defensive metrics of his career in 2022-23.
The Predators are still in retool mode and might not be a playoff contender this season, even in a weak Central Division. If Barrie can repeat that two-way performance, he will have incredible value on the trade market since he’s a right-handed defenseman, assuming the Predators decide to sell.
Connor Hellebuyck
There were plenty of trade rumors surrounding Connor Hellebuyck this offseason, but nothing ever came to fruition. Barring something unforeseen, he’ll begin the 2023-24 season with the Winnipeg Jets, who should contend for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
The Jets may have bought out Blake Wheeler and traded Pierre-Luc Dubois this offseason. But their return for Dubois — Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari — should help make up for a good portion of the offense they lost in buying out Wheeler and moving Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
If the Jets are in the playoff race, then it’s hard to imagine them trading Hellebuyck. But if they’re out of it, trading him could be their best option. Goalies like him don’t become available often, if ever, at the trade deadline. The Jets could get quite the return for him and help them reset quicker than most teams who’d give up a goalie of his caliber, something they’d need to do in that market.
Some of these free players will get dealt, and others won’t. But it’s worth keeping an eye on them as the 2023-24 season progresses. Because if their teams fall out of the postseason race, they could be valuable additions to playoff contenders.
