There has been much debate regarding the play of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci this season. The Edmonton Oilers have had relatively consistent success with their other two defensive pairs, but Nurse and Ceci have been boom or bust over various stretches. Management explored potential solutions in the trade market but ultimately couldn’t get a deal that made sense to them. This duo is back for another playoff run, and if the Oilers want to win the Stanley Cup, they will need both players to be at their best.
Nurse and Ceci in the Playoffs
Over the past three seasons, Nurse and Ceci have spent most of their even-strength time on ice (TOI) together. Since 2021-22, the Oilers have a 5-on-5 goal share (GF%) of 51.36 when they are on the ice together. Without them, Edmonton’s GF% is 57.25.
Their on-ice numbers could be better, but they’re serviceable, and the Oilers still outscore the opposition. The problem is, when the competition ramps up in the playoffs, they’ve both been unable to elevate their games to keep up. In the 2022 Playoffs, the Colorado Avalanche crushed the Nurse-Ceci pair, out-chancing them 42-27 and outscoring them 6-2 at 5-on-5. Nurse’s torn hip flexor hindered his ability to skate with the speedy Avalanche, but there are no excuses for what happened the following season. In the second round of the 2023 Playoffs, the Nurse-Ceci pair was outscored 6-1 by the Vegas Golden Knights and out-chanced 25-21. This duo was ineffective at the most crucial time of year in back-to-back seasons.
Nurse and Ceci’s Playstyle
Part of the problem with relying on the Nurse-Ceci pair is that they have some notable weaknesses that can be exploited. One of their biggest concerns is that they tend to give up too many chances in transition. According to All Three Zones, both players are in the bottom third of the league in preventing chances against on opposition zone entries. The Oilers have been better defending the rush since head coach Kris Knoblauch and defensive coach Paul Coffey were brought into the fold. However, bad pinches leading to odd-man rushes occasionally creep into Nurse and Ceci’s games.
Related: Oilers’ Ceci/Nurse Pair Needs to Be Split & Ceci Needs to Be Dealt
While Nurse and Ceci are better in-zone defenders than they get credit for, their ability to retrieve pucks and break out of the zone isn’t particularly strong, especially against faster and more aggressive opponents. The consequence is that the Oilers have less puck possession when they’re on the ice.
Shot attempt differential, also known as Corsi (CF%), is commonly used to estimate puck possession. Since 2021-22, the Oilers’ CF% without Nurse and Ceci on the ice has dropped from 54.36 in the regular season to 53.00 in the playoffs. It’s only a 1.36% decrease. With both players on the ice, though, Edmonton’s CF% drops from 50.91 to 46.46 from the regular season to playoffs, a decrease of 4.45%. Simply put, Nurse and Ceci have had much more trouble getting possession in the postseason and spend far too much time in their own zone to keep the puck out of the net.
Oilers Have Changed Their Deployment of Nurse and Ceci
Knoblauch has clearly recognized that this duo has a few issues, and he’s experimented with ways to remedy the situation over the past few months. One solution he tested in early March was elevating Vincent Desharnais to the second pair while dropping Ceci down to the third to play with Brett Kulak. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out as they had hoped. The Nurse-Desharnais duo were outscored and out-chanced at 5-on-5, and Kulak-Ceci was a significantly worse third pair than Kulak-Desharnais. Both of the new-look defensive pairs had a GF% in the mid-30s, and the Oilers won only six out of 11 games during this stretch.
Knoblauch ended the experiment and reverted to the previous duos. That isn’t the only change that he had made, though; he was also beginning to give Kulak and Desharnais more difficult matchups while giving Nurse and Ceci more favourable ones. Here is each defenceman’s percentage of TOI against elite competition since March 3:
- Ekholm: 33.8%
- Desharnais: 32.8%
- Bouchard: 31.5%
- Kulak: 29.1%
- Nurse: 27.2%
- Ceci: 23.5%
Over this timeframe, Nurse and Ceci have a GF% of 75.00 and an expected goal share of 59.38, both vast improvements. This strategy makes perfect sense. They have had the worst results against elite competition among Oiler defencemen this season, so rather than splitting them up, Knoblauch changed how he deploys Nurse and Ceci. So far, they are having some success with it, so we’ll see if this strategy continues into the playoffs.
This Postseason Will Likely Be Ceci’s Last Chance
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. If the Nurse-Ceci duo fails to get the job done in the postseason for a third consecutive season, the Oilers might be wise to move on from Ceci. Nurse carries a $9.25 million price tag, with a no-movement clause until the end of 2026-27, so moving him is off the table. On the other hand, Ceci has no trade protection, and his $3.25 million cap hit is definitely tradable.
The 2024 postseason may be the last chance for Nurse and Ceci to be a defensive pairing, and they will be one of the Oilers’ keys to success or failure. They have played well under the right circumstances but have also fallen apart before. If they can carry their recent play into the playoffs and continue their dominance in easier minutes, the Oilers will have a good chance to make a deep run this spring.
On-Ice Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Microstats via All Three Zones, Quality of Competition metrics via PuckIQ
