With their 6-0 victory over the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday (April 1), captain Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers clinched a berth in the 2023 NHL Playoffs. They will be participating in the postseason for a fourth consecutive year, their longest such streak since five in a row from 1997 to 2001.
But while Edmonton now knows it will be part of the Stanley Cup tournament, the Oilers don’t yet know who and where they’ll be playing when the playoffs begin on April 17. Following NHL action on Monday (April 3), they mathematically can still finish anywhere from first through fourth in the Pacific Division, leaving them will no less than nine potential first round opponents.
The Oilers (99 points in 77 games) are currently third in the division, four points back of the Vegas Golden Knights (103 points in 77 games), one point behind the Los Angeles Kings (100 points in 77 games) and seven points clear of the fourth-place Seattle Kraken (92 points in 76 games).
The Oilers are also playing to finish first in the entire Western Conference, which would secure home-ice advantage through the first three rounds of the playoffs. The conference comprises the Central and Pacific Divisions, and Edmonton has one more point than the Central-leading Minnesota Wild (98 points in 77 games).
Edmonton has five games left to play, including a four-stop road trip that kicks off in Los Angeles on Tuesday (April 4) and continues against the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday (April 5), the San Jose Sharks on April 8, and Colorado Avalanche on April 11. The Oilers then return home to close out the regular season against the San Jose Sharks at Rogers Place on April 13. With so much up in the air, here’s a look at how everything could shake out over the next week and a half.
Oilers in the Race for First Place
It’s essentially a three-horse race for the division title, with Vegas trying to hold off the Kings and Oilers. Suffice it to say Tuesday’s game between Edmonton and Los Angeles at Crypto.com Arena is of monstrous importance, as is the matchup at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday (April 6) when the Golden Knights host the Kings in a game the Oilers can only hope ends in regulation.
Vegas has a game in hand on both Edmonton and Los Angeles, but the Golden Knights also have the toughest stretch of games among the three. According to Tankathon, their remaining strength of schedule is the fourth most difficult in the NHL, and all of their opponents (Dallas Stars, Los Angeles, Nashville Predators, and twice against Seattle) are in the thick of playoff races, whether it be to qualify for the postseason or improve their seeding. Meanwhile, the Kings have the 15th most difficult remaining schedule, and the Oilers’ is ranked as the second easiest.
Oilers Come Out on Top of Tiebreakers
That softer schedule is not the only good news for the Oilers: they also win tiebreakers over both Los Angeles and Vegas. The first tiebreaker in the NHL standings is not, as commonly thought, head-to-head record, but rather regulation wins, and Edmonton is already assured of having the most regulation wins in the Western Conference.
Related: 5 Reasons the Oilers Made the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Edmonton has won 41 times in regulation, six more than the next closest teams in the Western Conference, Vegas, L.A., and Dallas. Those three are tied with 35 regulation wins apiece and each has only five games remaining, leaving them unable to catch up to the Oilers.
That could prove huge for the Oilers, not only for seeding within the Pacific Division, but also for home-ice advantage should they find themselves facing a Central Division team in a best-of-seven series.
Oilers Have Several Potential Opponents
If the Oilers manage to finish atop the Pacific Division standings, they will have home-ice advantage for a matchup with one of the Western Conference’s two wild card playoff teams, which would currently be the Kraken or Winnipeg Jets. Edmonton is 3-1 (1-1 at Rogers Place) against Seattle but has dropped one of two at home and two of three overall to the Jets this season.
An intriguing possibility has the Oilers facing the Calgary Flames (87 points in 77 games), who have won four straight games to pull within two points of the Jets (89 points in 77 games) for the final wild card spot in the West. A second straight spring of playoff hockey between the Oilers and Flames would electrify a province that went without a postseason Battle of Alberta for 31 years, from 1991 until Edmonton defeated Calgary 4-1 in the second round last May. The Oilers are 2-1 (0-1 at home) against the Flames in 2022-23.
Also, former Oilers blueliner Tyson Barrie and the Nashville Predators are a longshot to sneak into the wild card. The Predators (84 points in 76 games), who are 1-2 (0-1 in Edmonton) against the Oilers this season, are five points back of the Jets.
At this juncture, the most likely scenario sees the Oilers finishing second or third in the Pacific Division, and drawing Vegas or L.A. as their first round opponent. The Kings have given the Oilers fits this season (heading into Tuesday’s tilt, L.A. is 2-1 with a tidy 2.00 goals against average against Edmonton) while the Oilers have gotten the better of the Golden Knights, winning three of their four meetings over the 2022-23 schedule.
Other teams the Oilers could cross paths with during the Western Conference playoffs include the Avalanche (against whom the Oilers have lost twice in overtime so far this season), the Stars (Edmonton is 2-1 head-to-head), and the Wild (1-2). Things could become clearer following the outcome of the Oilers’ game in Los Angeles on Tuesday – or they could be even more muddied. Fans in Oil Country will be watching the out-of-town scoreboard with great interest, with a key game involving the Golden Knights and Predators taking place in Nashville earlier in the evening.
