In the time it takes to play three periods of NHL hockey, the Edmonton Oilers went from controlling their own destiny to having only a minuscule chance at finishing first in the Pacific Division.
After suffering a 3-1 loss to the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Place on Saturday (April 13), Edmonton is now five points behind the division-leading Canucks and has just three games remaining on its regular season schedule.
Dakota Joshua, Sam Lafferty and Pius Suter scored for the Canucks, who won all four of their games against Edmonton this season. Edmonton forward Evander Kane had his team’s lone goal as the Oilers again struggled to score while playing without injured captain Connor McDavid.
With the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs now just one week away, Saturday’s result may have answered some questions while raising others for the Oilers.
Oilers’ Playoff Picture Gets Clearer
Coming into the game Saturday, the Oilers were in a position where they could finish atop the Pacific standings by simply winning their final four games, including a regulation victory over the Canucks, regardless of Vancouver’s results in its two remaining games. But by losing to the Canucks in regulation, Edmonton is now on the verge of being eliminated from first-place contention.
Because they win all tiebreakers with Edmonton, the Canucks’ magic number for clinching first place in the Pacific is one, meaning either a single point gained by Vancouver or lost by the Oilers. The only way Edmonton can finish first is by winning its last three games, and the Canucks going 0-2-0 in their remaining contests.
In all likelihood, the Oilers will finish second in the Pacific and face off in Round 1 of the playoffs against the third-place team, either the Vegas Golden Knights or Los Angeles Kings. Los Angeles currently leads the Golden Knights by three points.
McDavid’s Return Remains Unclear
McDavid has now missed three consecutive contests, and while the Oilers played terrific in the first game without their captain, a 5-1 triumph over Vegas last Wednesday (April 10), they’ve struggled since, falling 3-2 in overtime to the Arizona Coyotes at home on Friday (April 13) before getting bested by Vancouver.
Related: Oilers Crush Golden Knights 5-1 Despite Being Without McDavid
While Edmonton clearly and dearly misses McDavid, who has 31 goals and 99 assists in 74 games this season, the fact that the Oilers are now practically locked into second place in the Pacific might influence their decision about his return to action.
McDavid looked good in a morning skate on Saturday, but Edmonton is clearly erring on the side of caution when it comes to the health of their five-time Art Ross Trophy winner.
With Edmonton’s next opponent being one it should easily defeat, the last-place San Jose Sharks, no one should be surprised if the Oilers decide to hold McDavid out of the lineup for that game at Rogers Place at 7:30 p.m. MDT on Monday (April 15).
On the other hand, the Oilers probably don’t want to leave McDavid out of the lineup for too long, and there is something to be said for getting his wheels back under him by playing a game or two before the postseason begins.
There is almost a matter of 100 assists. McDavid is sitting on 99 apples, just one from becoming only the fourth player in NHL history with a 100-assist season, and that milestone surely means something to the Oilers center.
As an added twist, Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov is also chasing 100 assists and has 98 with two games left to play. Tampa Bay’s next game is at 5 p.m. MDT on Monday, meaning Kucherov could be the first to 100 assists even if McDavid does play against San Jose.
In five games without McDavid this season, Edmonton is 1-3-1 for a point percentage of .300 and scoring an average of 2.40 goals. With McDavid, the Oilers are 47-22-5 with a point percentage of .669 and scoring an average of 3.62 goals.
Oilers Dominated in Season Series
The Oilers wind up going 0-4-0 against Vancouver in 2023-24, being outscored by a total of 21-7, and while each of their losses to Vancouver carries an asterisk (the first three defeats occurred during the opening four weeks of the season when the Oilers were a shell of the team they are now, prior to head coach Jay Woodcroft being replaced Kris Knoblauch; Saturday’s loss came with McDavid sidelined), there is surely some psychological impact from such a lopsided season series.
Should Edmonton and Vancouver each win their respective series in Round 1 of the playoffs, the teams will meet in the second round, and the Canucks have to be feeling pretty good about playing Edmonton, while the Oilers might be questioning their ability to beat Vancouver.
Granted, if Edmonton’s confidence is shaken, the Oilers certainly weren’t letting on when they spoke to the media following Saturday’s game. Asked if he read anything into being winless against the Canucks this season, Oilers winger Zach Hyman responded decisively: “Not at all. Different game in the playoffs.”
The next few days will be interesting in Oil Country, from the Pacific standings to McDavid’s status to getting into optimal form for the postseason. After hosting San Jose on Monday, the Oilers close out their season with a pair of road games: in Tempe against the Arizona Coyotes next Wednesday (April 17) and in Denver against the Colorado Avalanche next Thursday (April 18). The 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin April 20.
