Warren Foegele just hit 20 goals in a single season for the first time in his career. It’s been a solid run in 2023-24 for the top-nine winger who is showing his ability and has stepped up his production in a contract year. The Oilers were right to hang onto him at the NHL Trade Deadline, and he’ll be useful in the postseason, but questions this summer will revolve around how much Edmonton can afford to pay to keep him in the fold.
Making $2.75 million this year, it will be tough to get him to come in around that number moving forward. Still, the Oilers have to be careful not to overspend. They have big-money extensions coming due in the next few seasons and they’ll need to round out the top-end of their roster with cost-effective contracts. Are they better off going a different route with Foegele, letting him test the market?
What Is Foegele Going to Be Worth Next Season?
A trade that has worked out quite well for the Oilers, Ken Holland has to be happy with what Foegele has provided since acquiring him in a trade for defenseman Ethan Bear. Holland signed Foegele immediately after that trade was made and it’s turned out to be a fair-value deal throughout the extension.
According to Edmonton Journal scribe Jim Matheson, Foegele could get four years from another team in free agency.
He writes:
Warren Foegele off 20 goals and career-high 41 points is likely getting 4-year UFA deal from somebody this summer. Do Oilers have enough money for, say, $3.5m x 4? He makes $2.75m now. We know one thing: he’s top 9 NHL forward all day long. He just turned 28.
$3.5 million is a fair, but hefty jump. The four-year deal is perhaps the most concerning part. That would take Foegele to 32 years old and while that’s not incredibly old by NHL standards, it’s enough term that if Foegele takes a step backward, his contract becomes much more difficult to trade.
What Other Options Are Available to the Oilers?
Internally, Edmonton has a few ways they can go. The easiest solution is to either trade Foegele’s rights at the draft or let him walk if he wants too much. From there, promoting Dylan Holloway to a top-nine role seems like the quickest fix. There are already questions about Holloway playing in this season’s playoffs and if he does, who comes out of the lineup. If Foegele moves on, that question is answered.
Related: Oilers’ Dylan Holloway Deserves Top-6 Shot Next Season
Externally, Edmonton could go after other free agents that either badly want to come to Edmonton or will be a bit less expensive. Jake DeBrusk is someone who has been linked to the Oilers for some time. He’s a pending UFA coming off a $4 million contract. He’ll come in at a higher number than Foegele, but the Oilers could potentially get him at a discount, and investing in him longer term is less of a risk. He’s got the talent to play top-six minutes.
Edmonton could look to shorter-term options too. Tyler Toffoli (32) and David Perron (36) are both older, but proven. Each could earn around or slightly less than they are making this season (Perron less for sure), meaning they could potentially come in around the Foegele $3.5 million per season number, without having to commit.
What Is the Ideal Situation?
Ideally, Foegele doesn’t want to leave Edmonton and is willing to stick around for a similar number to what he’s making in exchange for the extra term. Foegele has earned the right to test the market, but for some players, the grass isn’t always greener elsewhere.
If Edmonton is open to giving him $3 million per season over three years, would Foegele be open to taking it knowing he’s staying in an ideal situation? In the shorter term, he could elevate his game and compete for the Stanley Cup. All the while, he could look to sign one more deal at the age of 31 and when the cap has jumped significantly.
He’s well-liked and he likes this team. If he’s open to finding a solution so he doesn’t have to move on, $3 million per season is a number the Oilers should feel comfortable with.
