While the Edmonton Oilers’ focus is on making a push for a Stanley Cup this season, they will soon have to shift their focus toward the 2024-25 season as they try to continue being a competitive team that can consistently make deep playoff runs. Aside from the two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers have done well filling out the rest of their lineup with strong pieces, including Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm, and Evander Kane, who have all been huge parts of the Oilers’ playoff success in the past several seasons.
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With that being said, the Oilers will have to try and figure out a way to continue dominating and improve their team if they hope to make another deep playoff run next season. With the Toronto Maple Leafs being eliminated in the first round by the Boston Bruins and expected to make some major changes, moving a big name in hopes of altering their roster and shocking the system could be exactly what they choose to do. The Maple Leafs decided to relieve Sheldon Keefe of his duties as head coach on Thursday (May 9), and it’s expected that they will be making a few more moves before next season. One player who could find himself in trade rumours is forward Mitch Marner.
The Maple Leafs have a really strong team that could be contenders every season, and in a big market, they have high expectations. With yet another season going by when they couldn’t get anything done, there is a growing belief that things will look much different in Toronto next season. If the Oilers are unable to make it past the Vancouver Canucks and are eliminated in the second round for the second straight season, I would expect them to be another team looking to make some massive changes.
Where Would Marner Fit In?
The Oilers need to shift their focus to re-signing Draisaitl to an extension as he becomes eligible on July 1, but they could look to fill out the rest of their roster just in case negotiations go sideways. I would expect the Oilers and Draisaitl to come to an agreement before his contract expires, but it would be surprising if they didn’t at least explore other options to see if there was a trade worth making. If the Oilers can somehow bring Marner in while retaining Draisaitl, they may become the strongest team on paper in the entire league.
Hypothetically, if the Oilers can bring Marner in and have a “core four” group of forwards, it’s interesting to think about where he would fit into their lineup. The Oilers will likely lose Warren Foegele in free agency as he prices himself out of Edmonton. Dylan Holloway will likely get a shot between the second and third line next season but will almost surely start the season in the bottom six. With that being said, Marner coming to the Oilers could make for one of the strongest lines in NHL history, with McDavid up the middle and Hyman and Marner on the wings.
The second line could look like Draisaitl up the middle, with Kane or Ryan McLeod on the wing and either Adam Henrique or Holloway on that line, depending on whether or not Henrique re-signs for the right price. The good thing about bringing in Marner is that the Oilers would get some serious flexibility with their lineup next season and could try some different things, finally being able to try and spread out their offensive production through all four lines.
This would be an extremely tough trade to pull off and would be one that Marner has to approve because of the no-movement clause that gives him the power to choose whether or not he gets moved at all and where he gets traded. If he decides the Oilers are a team he wants to join, the Maple Leafs would likely have to retain 50% of Marner’s current contract, dropping his cap hit to $5.4515 million, which is much more affordable. The Oilers could part with a package involving Kane or Cody Ceci to bring the money closer (Kane makes $5.125 million & Ceci makes $3.25 million), two top prospects like Raphael Lavoie and Xavier Bourgault, as well as several high draft picks. Making this deal likely means the loss of Foegele, who should make somewhere between $4.25-5.5 million per season on the open market, but the Oilers could afford Marner at that point.
Speaking to fellow writers Jim Parsons and Spencer Lazary, who gave some strong insight into what they think a trade could look like, it became obvious that a Marner trade would be extremely difficult to pull off. Spencer mentioned that someone like Nugent-Hopkins or Ekholm could move the needle and make a deal happen, whereas Jim believes those two players are completely untouchable, and I agree with Jim on this. However, it’s tough to imagine the Oilers don’t consider multiple scenarios if a player like Marner is interested in playing in Edmonton. Still, a deal of this magnitude will have plenty of moving parts.
Why Should the Oilers Pursue a Marner Trade?
Scoring depth has been one of the Oilers’ biggest issues in the past several seasons, as they haven’t found a bottom-six group strong enough to provide trustworthy offensive production to take some pressure off the top-six. Bringing in Marner gives some much-needed flexibility. Nugent-Hopkins could move down to the third line as a centreman and help elevate his wingers, leading to the Oilers having one of the strongest offensive lineups in the entire league.
For several reasons, many fans will question Marner as a trade option for the Oilers. His playoff performances have been good but not great by any means. His cap hit is relatively high, and he is a pending unrestricted free agent following the 2024-25 season. Lastly, bringing in another star could cause internal issues if everyone wants the spotlight. However, bringing in a star like Marner proves to both McDavid and Draisaitl – who both need extensions soon – that the Oilers are still trying to win. While they may consider pursuing cheaper options in free agency, adding a star like Marner proves they will do what it takes to make a run for a Stanley Cup.
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The Maple Leafs need to improve their defensive depth if they want any chance of making another deep postseason run next season, so adding Ceci would give them someone who can play big minutes and provide a veteran presence on their team since they don’t have many strong defensive prospects in their pipeline. The Oilers would be better off having Philip Broberg finally make the jump to the NHL over Ceci, thus benefitting both sides should Ceci be the piece that evens out the money. As I mentioned above, the Oilers will have to add way more assets to bring a deal closer, but these two should be a part of it. This also gives the Oilers a chance to finally upgrade their defensive depth with more affordable options on the market for their bottom-pairing, with Desharnais earning a shot in the top four.
This is purely hypothetical and is something I think could help benefit the Oilers if they can make it work. The Oilers and Canucks continue to battle in the second round as both teams look to be the final Canadian team in the 2023-24 postseason and make the Western Conference Final.
This offseason will be one of the most entertaining, with several big names being talked about in trade rumours and plenty of strong players entering free agency. Ultimately, the Oilers and Maple Leafs should be aggressive in hopes of improving their teams this offseason, as they will have high expectations again next season.