For years, the Ottawa Senators have struggled to put together a competitive farm system, leaving them at the bottom of multiple farm system rankings. Those days finally seem to be over, though. General manager Steve Staios was patient and strategic at the draft, adding several players with high upsides while also addressing organizational needs. Then, in free agency, he sought out savvy veterans who could bolster the roster from the bottom up, providing the leadership and experience needed for some of the team’s better prospects to take the next step forward. All in all, 2024-25 promises to be a much better season for the Senators and much more focused on developing the top talents they have on their team.
Of course, the primary goal for the Senators is to make the playoffs this season after missing it for the past seven seasons, which could prevent some players from finding permanent roster spots. But having players who can legitimately compete for a spot is a change for the better and will undoubtedly push the team, especially those who could lose their place, to perform above expectations. Staios has shown he’s not afraid to cut ties with former top prospects, and if anyone takes a step back, they will also be on the chopping block. Here’s a look at the Senators’ 2024-25 Prospect Pyramid.
What is a Prospect Pyramid?
Created by YouTuber Steve Dangle, the Prospect Pyramid was designed to be a cleaner and less divisive model. It’s an easier way to rank prospects rather than trying to decide which player should be 12th and which should be 13th. Instead, they are simply put into one of five tiers, which are as follows:
Tier 1 – Top-line, top-pair talent or better.
Tier 2 – Top-six forward, top-four defender, or starting goaltender.
Tier 3 – Wild card players; prospects with high potential that could end up in the top six or bottom six, but still have a decent chance of making it to the NHL.
Tier 4 – Players with limited impact; either high-potential prospects with a low chance of making the NHL, or low-potential prospects with a decent chance of playing NHL games.
Tier 5 – Everybody else; minor league player used for call-ups.
For this list, I will use the Calder Trophy definition of a prospect: a player under 26 years old and has not played more than 25 games in a single season or six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons.
Additions, Subtractions & Graduates
Since July 2024, these are the prospects who have been added to and left the organization.
Additions
Trades: Xavier Bourgault, Jake Chiasson, Jamieson Rees, Wyatt Bongiovanni, Jan Jenik
Free Agents: Djibril Toure, Filip Roos
Draft: Carter Yakemchuk, Gabriel Eliasson, Lucas Ellinas, Javon Moore, Blake Montgomery, Eerik Wallenius
Subtractions
Trades: Roby Jarventie (Edmonton Oilers), Egor Sokolov (Utah HC), Jakov Novak (Montreal Canadiens)
Free Agency: Lassi Thomson (SHL), Luke Loheit (unsigned)
Graduates
Ridly Greig was the only graduate last season, as the team was continuously stuck in cap purgatory; despite needing fresh faces, they couldn’t call up prospects for longer than another player’s injury. Unless they had a spot after training camp, they couldn’t earn any ice time, regardless of how well they did in the minors. Thankfully, for 2024-25, the Senators will have much more flexibility to move players around.
Tier 1 – Guaranteed Top Line Talents (Or Better)
Carter Yakemchuk, RD
After not having a Tier 1 prospect for a couple of seasons, the Senators added one with Carter Yakemchuk, their seventh-overall selection at the 2024 NHL Draft. He was one of the most dangerous offensive defencemen in the Western Hockey League (WHL) last season, scoring a league-leading 30 goals while finishing top-three in penalty minutes with 120. His ability to both layout and dangle around opponents makes him truly unique among up-and-coming defencemen, and paired with his right-handed shot, there’s no question that the Senators are banking on him emerging as a partner for Jake Sanderson on the top pairing.
However, Yakemchuk isn’t making his NHL debut this season and likely won’t be in the NHL in 2025-26. That’s because, while he’s demonstrated otherworldly offensive prowess, he’s also shown some questionable decision-making and weaker skating. According to The Hockey Writers’ Logan Horn, “While his skating is a very minor concern in my eyes, I’d say the biggest question surrounding Yakemchuk is if his brain will be able to keep up in the NHL. He plays at a high pace decently well, but his decision-making is what gives me pause at times. It usually manifests itself in offensive over commitment and leaning a bit too hard into being the lead offensive creator for the Hitmen.”
There is good reason to believe that many of Yakemchuk’s issues will iron themselves out over time, but he’s a bit more of a project than some of the other defencemen available at the 2024 Draft. That means the Senators will have to be patient with him if they truly believe he can be their answer to the right side of their blue line.
Tier 2 – Top-of-the-Lineup Players
Mads Sogaard, G
I’ve been firm on Mads Sogaard as the Senators’ goalie of the future. On the last prospect pyramid, I bumped him up to Tier 2 despite a lacklustre showing in 2022-23, as I believed his potential was far higher than his stats showed. I think his 2023-24 season proved that. Despite six mostly underwhelming games in the NHL, he put up his best American Hockey League (AHL) season so far.
He played a career-high 32 games and posted a .916 save percentage (SV%), ranked 15th in the league, while his 2.45 goals-against average (GAA) was 14th. Only seven AHL goalies played more games than him and finished with better stats last season. In the playoffs, he had the fourth-lowest GAA among goalies who played at least five games, including a .932 SV% performance in a double-overtime game against the Cleveland Monsters that eventually sent the Belleville Senators home.
Related: Ottawa Senators’ 2023-24 Prospect Pyramid
Sogaard is still on track to become the Senators’ goalie of the future, and at 23 years old, he still has plenty of time to reach his potential. However, the Senators seem to believe he’ll be ready sooner than that thanks to his newly-signed two-year deal, which is a two-way deal for the first year and a one-way NHL deal for the second. The plan seems to be that, once Anton Forsberg’s contract ends next season, Sogaard will be given the reigns as Ottawa’s backup, and if Linus Ullmark doesn’t re-sign, he could even be the team’s starter. The only question is whether Sogaard will be ready so soon.
Tier 3 – The Wild Cards
Xavier Bourgault, C
The newest Senators’ prospect, Xavier Bourgault, was acquired from the Edmonton Oilers along with Jake Chiasson for Roby Jarventie. Drafted in the first round of the 2021 NHL Draft, he’s struggled to bring his junior scoring to the pro level, scoring just eight goals and 20 points in 55 games last season, a surprising step back from his 13 goals and 34 points as a rookie in 2022-23. However, despite his lack of offensive skills, it was surprising to see the Oilers trade away one of their top prospects so soon. Their loss is the Senators’ gain.
Although he’s no longer a lock for the top six, he still has some untapped potential and has shown he can be a solid defensive forward in the AHL. In Ottawa, he’ll have more opportunities to secure an NHL spot, which could result in a steal for the Senators. But he’s still very much a wild card prospect, making him the headliner for Tier 3 in 2024-25.
Jamieson Rees, C
Another former top prospect getting a second chance with the Senators is Jamieson Rees, who was acquired late last season from the Carolina Hurricanes for a sixth-round pick to boost the Belleville Senators. However, he’s much more than just a career AHLer. When he was drafted, he was seen as a potential middle-six forward thanks to his speed, offensive skills, and physical style of play.
Unfortunately, injuries and limited ice time have stalled his development before he could push for an NHL roster spot. What followed was a trainwreck of a season; he played 37 games split between the Springfield Thunderbirds and Charlotte Checkers, he got almost no ice time and scored zero goals and four assists. If he can get back on track in Belleville, he could emerge as a similar player to Greig, which worked out well for the Senators last season – another wild card with very intriguing potential.
Stephen Halliday, C
Few expected Stephen Halliday to become one of the team’s top prospects after he was selected as an overager in the fourth round of the 2022 NHL Draft. But then he went on to score at over a point-per-game pace as a freshman with Ohio State University, followed it up with 36 points in 38 games as a sophomore, then put up a nine-point performance in the AHL playoffs to lead Belleville in scoring. Now, there’s no question that he’s one of the Senators’ best young players. With his size, strength, and intelligence, it seems like a matter of time until he’s pushing for a middle-six spot in the NHL.
Zack Ostapchuk, C/LW
Zack Ostapchuk is another big, smart player who is on the fast track to becoming an NHLer. As a rookie in the AHL, he finished fourth on the team with 17 goals in 69 games, and although he went point-less in his seven-game NHL call-up last season, he made headlines in his debut for intercepting a pass from none other than Sidney Crosby. His quick adaptation to the pro ranks has some wondering if he could push for a roster spot as early as this season, thanks to his combination of grit and skill. He might need a bit longer in the AHL before he secures a full-time spot in the NHL, but he could earn some extended looks with the Senators as the season wears on.
“He was never somebody who worried about who he was playing with or how much he was playing. He just played. I never had to worry about whether he was doing the things he needed to do over the summer to get ready for the season…He’s going to have a long career because of versatility and his ability to play up and down a lineup. There’s that and there’s the kind of person he is. He’s never points driven. He’s results driven. He’s a team-first type of guy. He’s a captain type.”
Barclay Parneta, Vancouver Giants general manager (from ‘Newest Ottawa Senator Zack Ostapchuk ‘left a legacy with his leadership’ for the Vancouver Giants,’ The Province – 13/03/2024).
Tomas Hamara, LD
After showing some promise as a rookie in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), Tomas Hamara’s 2023-24 season got off to a poor start with just three assists in 18 games with the Kitchener Rangers, leading to him requesting a trade, stating that he wasn’t happy with his ice time and deployment.
The Rangers obliged, taking the opportunity to free up their congested blue line and sent him to the Brantford Bulldogs, where he put up six points in his first nine games with his new club and finished with 17 points in 26 games. He was also one of Czechia’s best players at the 2024 World Juniors and scored the bronze-medal-winning goal. The 2022 third-rounder still needs time to round out his game, but he still has top-four potential. He’ll have a great opportunity to secure big minutes in Belleville after the departure of Lassi Thomson and Jacob Larsson.
Tyler Kleven, LD, and Gabriel Eliasson, LD
There are a lot of similarities between Tyler Kleven and Gabriel Eliasson. Both were surprising second-round picks and were selected largely on their ability to throw their impressive frames around and fire pucks from the point. I’ve been slow to warm up to Kleven, as I saw him as someone who wouldn’t end up as anything more than a bottom-six checking defenceman, but his brief appearances with the Senators have looked promising, and his 21 points were third among defencemen in Belleville. Of anyone on this list, he has the best shot to secure a spot in Ottawa out of training camp and could easily become a top-four defensive defenceman with a cannon of a shot.
Related: Ottawa Senators’ 2024 NHL Draft Class Recap
Eliasson, on the other hand, looks as if all the levels on Kleven were turned all the way. At 6-foot-7, he’s three inches taller and much more violent; with HV71’s junior team, he had 103 penalty minutes in just 36 games, or nearly a penalty and a half every game. His offence, however, is much weaker. In those 36 games, he had just one goal and five assists. He’s also not shy about his enjoyment of the physical side of the game, saying at the Senators’ development camp, “I love to make some big hits and stuff like that, too, being pretty mean out there.” His upside as a top-notch shutdown defenseman is higher than Kleven’s, but his floor is also much lower, leading me to put them in the same tier.
Leevi Merilainen, G
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed following Leevi Merilainen’s progress from a draft-day unknown to one of the Senators’ best young goalies. He’s had success at every level he’s played at; he won a silver medal at the 2022 World Juniors, put up a .933 SV% and recorded a shutout in his first four games in the AHL, and in his NHL debut, made 34 saves en route to a 3-2 overtime loss. I don’t think he has the same upside as Sogaard, but he looks like a future NHL starter and will battle his fellow prospect for starts in the AHL again this season.
Angus Crookshank, LW
Could Angus Crookshank end up in the NHL this season? It’s a question worth considering after how the undersized speedster looked last season. He was an AHL All-Star, led Belleville with 24 goals, and played 13 games with the Senators, during which he scored two goals and an assist while also throwing 20 hits. During his NHL stints, he even earned some power play time and was still deployed mostly in the defensive end. However, his knee issues, once thought to be behind him after missing all of the 2021-22 season, don’t seem to be completely resolved after he went down with a lower-body injury in April. Still, he re-signed a one-year deal for 2024-25, and Staios stated he’s pleased with his progress. Hopefully, that continues next season.
Maxence Guenette, RD
Whereas Crookshank could steal a spot out of training camp, Maxence Guenette should arguably already be in the NHL. He was one of the final seven defenders after the 2023-24 training camp, beating out first-round talents Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker, but cap constraints forced the team to send him back down or risk losing one of their contracted defensemen.
Even Staios could barely hold back his expectations, saying, “You’ve got to remember we have Guenette, who was an AHL All-Star last year and moving in the right direction. There is some competition down there for those spots, and I’m looking forward to training camp.” Although he doesn’t have the highest offensive upside, that’s still some pretty high praise for a young player and seems like he might have an inside track when camp starts up in the fall.
Jorian Donovan, LD
In his three seasons in the league, Jorian Donovan has established himself as one of the best two-way presences in the OHL. He was one of the biggest targets for the Saginaw Spirit as they loaded up for the Memorial Cup, sending eight picks to the Bulldogs for the defender. Even though he joined a star-studded cast, he was routinely one of the Spirit’s best players, even taking over from Zayne Parekh during an injury and playing upwards of 34 minutes a night in the playoffs. But, it was his leadership, attitude, and adaptability that made him such an important member of the Memorial Cup Champions. He’s still a couple of seasons away from being an NHL player, but he should slot into a second-pairing role easily, all while making those around him better.
“When his career ends here after the Memorial Cup and he turns pro he’s definitely left an impact on the organization and I know he did in Brantford as well. I think he’s going to win over any coach that coaches him throughout his pro ranks real fast.”
Dave Drinkill, Saginaw Spirit general manager (from ‘Why the Senators have a ‘real good one’ with prospect Jorian Donovan,’ The Athletic – 2/06/2024).
Javon Moore, LW
Javon Moore is the final member of Tier 3 and arguably the biggest boom-or-bust player in the group. The athletic winger put up a team-leading 26 goals with Minnetonka High and was praised for his creativity and dynamism, leading some to label him as a potential top-six player in the NHL. However, his success came almost solely at the high school level, so it’s difficult to know whether his skill will translate to tougher competition. For a fourth-round selection, the Senators could have done much worse, and they’ll monitor his progress closely as he heads to the University of Minnesota this season.
Tier 4: Role Players and Limited Impact
Tyler Boucher, RW
Tyler Boucher had another disappointing campaign, playing just 21 games in the AHL and scoring two goals and five points before injuries completely derailed his season. He hasn’t played a full season in any league since 2019-20, which has hampered his development. There’s still a chance he makes the NHL and becomes a valuable bottom-six checking forward, and after acquiring Bourgault and Rees, Staios has shown that he believes in top prospects resurrecting their careers, but I’m still not convinced he’ll end up as anything more than a career minor-leaguer. However, because of his bottom-six potential, he’s in Tier 4.
“I’m still hungry and I’m still positive. I’m still confident in myself that when I can gain some traction and some luck on my side, things will start to go my way. I haven’t given up on myself. I’ve learned to be grateful for what I have…I just need to start on time and the rest will take care of itself.”
Tyler Boucher (from ‘Senators prospect Tyler Boucher on latest injuries: ‘I’m still hungry and I’m still positive’,’ The Athletic – 10/06/2024).
Philippe Daoust
Philippe Daoust has also missed a ton of time due to injuries over the past four seasons. This past season, he dressed in only four AHL and five ECHL games. There was hope that 2023-24 would be a rebound season for the slippery forward after going down with an upper-body injury just nine games into 2022-23, but a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely. Like Boucher, there’s still hope for him to become a solid NHL player, but with his contract expiring at the end of the season, he’ll need to make every game count if he wants to earn an extension.
Hoyt Stanley, RD
The Senators took a bit of swing on Hoyt Stanley when they selected him with their first pick in 2023 down in the third round. The lanky right-shot defenceman showed great mobility in the British Columbia Hockey League (BCHL) and top-four potential but would be more of a project. His first season in the NCAA went well enough, with two goals and 10 points in 35 games, along with a plus-16 with Cornell University, but he’s still a long way away from turning pro.
Matthew Andonovski, LD
In three seasons with the Rangers, Matthew Andonovski has seven goals and 52 points in 175 games, with his best coming in 2023-24 with seven goals and 32 points in 65 games. But offence is not why the Senators drafted him in the fifth round of the 2023 Draft and then signed him to an entry-level deal in July. Like Dorion and Guenette, it’s the little things that he does so well.
He was a big-minute defender, leading the OHL in plus/minus with a plus-58 and frequently played alongside Kitchener’s top defenceman, Hunter Brzustewicz, providing the defensive support to allow his partner to thrive offensively. His efforts were also recognized in the end-of-season coach’s poll, where he was named one of the OHL’s best body checkers, penalty killers, and defensive defencemen. He may not have high potential, but he’s gearing up to be a fantastic depth defender in the NHL.
Djibril Toure, RD
I really liked it when the Senators signed Djibril Toure after inviting him to their rookie camp last year, making him one of the best feel-good stories leading up to the season. The 6-foot-7 late-bloomer had shown that he could be a devastating shutdown defenceman in the OHL, and paired with his right-handed shot, he seemed destined for a depth spot in the NHL.
He had his most successful campaign points-wise last season, scoring eight goals and 18 points between the Sudbury Wolves and Windsor Spitfires while putting up 69 penalty minutes, but the move from Sudbury to Windsor was certainly a downgrade as the Spitfires finished last in the league. He’ll have some better teammates this season as he moves onto the pro ranks in Belleville.
Theo Wallberg, LD
Theo Wallberg’s description is very similar to many other defencemen in the Senators’ system. He stands 6-foot-5, plays a mobile offensive style with some physicality, and projects to be a bottom-pairing defender in the NHL. Yet, he could become somewhat of a hidden gem in Ottawa. His freshman season with Ohio State University last season was quite successful, finishing fourth on the team with 21 points in 38 games and, in the second half of the season, didn’t go more than two games without putting up a point. The sixth-round pick seems to have found a good niche with the NCAA program and should continue to develop into a solid all-around defenceman.
Oskar Pettersson, RW
I expected more from Oskar Pettersson’s first foray into North America. After starting last season in Sweden, he made his way over to Belleville in January, but by April, he had just three goals and seven points in 29 appearances. He plays a pro-style game that makes him a perfect fourth-line checking winger; The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler described him as a classic Senators pick, writing, “He’s a physical, shot-blocking, battle-winning worker bee who plays an honest, net-driven, pro-style game that builds toward an NHL shot through hard work, give-and-go sequences and determination. He’s not the most talented or cerebral player on the ice, but he finds ways to impact shifts and make things happen” (from ‘Ottawa Senators are No. 31 in 2024 NHL prospect pool rankings,’ The Athletic – 31/01/2024). He’ll have to figure out the AHL first before the NHL is an option, though.
Jan Jenik, C/W
Yet another player who’s looking for a rebound in Ottawa, Jan Jenik has a good chance to secure a bottom-six spot with the Senators. A foot injury in 2022-23 set back his development, as did the arrival of a new general manager with the Arizona Coyotes, leading to a lengthy contract battle that wasn’t resolved until training camp. But he doesn’t have to worry about not having people in his camp in Ottawa.
When he played with the Hamilton Bulldogs from 2018-20, Staios was the GM, and when asked about his impact on the team following an injury, Staios said, “He’s the best player in the league in my opinion” (from ‘SCOTT RADLEY: Injury to their best player a disaster for the Bulldogs,’ The Hamilton Spectator – 1/01/2020). That bodes well for his chances with the Senators in 2024-25 and beyond, even though he isn’t likely to push for a spot in the top six.
Donovan Sebrango, LD
Only two pieces remain from the Alex DeBrincat trade from last July: Moore, who was selected with the fourth-round pick, and defenceman Donovan Sebrango. While Moore could emerge as a diamond in the rough, Sebrango has far less upside. After a promising junior career in the OHL, he’s struggled to adapt to the AHL and has spent more time than expected regaining his confidence in the ECHL. However, last season’s playoffs offered a glimmer of hope as he put up two goals and three points in seven games, the second-highest total of any defenceman in Belleville. With some key departures from the blue line, he should have an easier time finding his place on the team. Whether that results in an NHL call-up, however, is more doubtful at this time.
Kevin Reidler, G
Sweden’s Kevin Reidler had a strong North American debut last season, posting a .902 SV% in 39 games with the United States Hockey League’s (USHL) Dubuque Fighting Saints, which placed him sixth among goalies in save percentage and games played. In the playoffs, he was even more impressive with a .934 SV% in 11 games, the highest of any goalie who started at least six playoff games. He’s a quick, athletic goalie who has surprising mobility for someone standing 6-foot-6 and should do well now that he’s with the University of Omaha-Nebraska.
Blake Montgomery, LW
The USHL’s Lincoln Stars had three 20-goal scorers last season, one of which was Blake Montgomery, who finished with a team-leading 22. He’s a big, powerful playdriver who can skate well, and although he doesn’t have a high offensive ceiling, he’s a strong competitor who doesn’t shy away from the physical side of the game. He has a ways to go before he makes the NHL; despite being an overage prospect at the 2024 Draft, he’ll have to wait until 2025-26 to join the University of Wisconsin. That will give him time to work on his all-around presence and offensive skills before he ends up in the Senators’ system.
Lukas Ellinas, LW
Lucas Ellinas didn’t have a fantastic regular season, but in the playoffs, he demonstrated his ability to be a big-game performer. In 10 playoff games with the OHL’s Rangers, he scored five goals and eight points, which was only bested by Carson Rehkopf and Eduard Sale. Had he put up those totals over the regular season, he would have had 33 goals and 53 points, a much more reasonable total for a mid-round draft target. His skating is lacking somewhat, which will limit his NHL potential, but he definitely has some intriguing upside.
Tier 5 – Everybody Else
While there could be some hidden gems in this tier, these players don’t have a great chance to make an impact in the NHL. They include Cole Reinhardt, Oliver Johansson, Cameron O’Neill, Nicholas VanTassell, Tyson Dyck, Owen Beckner, Eerik Wallenius, Jake Chiasson, Filip Roos, Wyatt Bongiovanni, Vladimir Nikitin, and Filip Nordberg. Of those, Nordberg likely has the highest potential, but without a place to play for the 2024-25 season and no indication that he’ll sign an entry-level deal, his time may have run out with the Senators.
One player to keep an eye on is Wallenius, who was a surprising final pick by the Senators in the 2024 Draft. Although his stats are nothing to write home about, he took some massive steps in his development last season and could be a bit of a late bloomer. He’ll remain in Sweden until 2025-26, so it’s a pretty low risk to see if he becomes anything. I have my doubts, hence why he’s in Tier 5, but I could see him moving up, too.
Positive Outlook for Senators’ Prospects
This is a fun group of prospects. Kleven, Crookshank, Guenette, Jenik, and Ostapchuk could all find themselves in the NHL for extended periods this season. Meanwhile, Halliday and Donovan have emerged as top prospects despite not having the draft pedigree to back them up. Add in newcomers Bourgault, Eliasson, Rees, and Moore, and this group could become a fantastic supporting cast to the Senators’ young core.
That’s not to say it’s perfect. It still lacks dynamic prospects in the top end, but at least they have one with Yakemchuk, and while I liked many of the Senators’ recent draft selections, I felt that they could have been much better at the time and tended to go with safer options. But things can change in an instant in the hockey world, and if the Senators manage to find another Halliday or Crookshank with their recent additions, then I think things will turn out alright, which is not a sentiment I’ve held for some time with this team.
