November’s arrival brings with it some cooler air, fewer leaves on the trees, and the feeling that the NHL season is well underway. Thus far, NHL teams have played close to ten games apiece, which means they are directionally an eighth of the way through their seasons. While the 2023-24 campaign is still in its infancy, we have already seen some surprises, some pleasant and some not-so-pleasant. Keeping in mind that all 32 teams have over 70 games left to play, here are some overreactions and proper reactions to the start of the 2023-24 season.
Proper Reaction: Sharks Are Historically Bad
Simply put, the San Jose Sharks have been horrible. Through nine games they have collected just one point, and while their schedule has been tough, a second look shows that they are every bit as bad as their record. Their goal differential of minus-26 is 11 points lower than the second-worst in the league – over a full goal per game.
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They have put up a league-low 24.6 shots on goal per game while allowing a league-high 38.3 shots on goal per game, and they are two losses away from tying the record for most consecutive losses to start a season. Either way, the Sharks are on a historically bad pace and will look to claim the first overall pick in next year’s NHL Draft.
Overreaction: Bruins Are a Cup Favorite
After a heartbreaking defeat in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs, the Bruins have gotten off to a hot start this season. They have won eight of their first nine games, with their sole loss coming in overtime to the Anaheim Ducks. They seem to have a viable replacement for one of their now-retired top two centers from a season ago in 19-year-old Matthew Poitras, and their goaltenders look just as dynamic as they did last year.
While all of this should be viewed encouragingly for Bruins fans, they should not be seen as a Stanley Cup favorite yet. Just two of the first nine teams they played were in the playoffs a season ago, and four of their games thus far came against the Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks, who had the top two picks in the last NHL Draft. None of this is a knock on the product that the Bruins have put on the ice this season, however, they should not be viewed as a Stanley Cup favorite until they are able to keep up their dominant play against stronger teams than they have faced (they will have an opportunity to do so on Thursday against the Toronto Maple Leafs).
Proper Reaction: Flames Will Miss Playoffs
Over the offseason, the Calgary Flames offloaded former head coach Darryl Sutter and general manager (GM) Brad Treliving looking for a fresh start after what was a disappointing 2022-23 campaign. Thus far, they have played as badly this season as they did last; both their goals for per game and goals against per game rank in the bottom five of the NHL. Jacob Markstrom has struggled and has not shown any indication that he will return to his Vezina-contending 2021-22 form, and backup goalie Dan Vladar has posted an abysmal .842 save percentage (SV%).
Related: 3 Flames Who Can Bounce Back in 2023-24
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Jonathan Huberdeau, who fans hoped would improve from an underwhelming performance a season ago, has posted just five points in nine games to go along with a plus/minus of minus-10. The Flames are going to need a lot of things to change in the coming months for them to be in contention for a playoff spot, and as of now, there is no indication that they will.
Overreaction: Oilers Will Miss Playoffs
The Edmonton Oilers got off to a slow start in 2023-24. They sit in sixth place in the Pacific Division with just five points through eight games, and there may be a sense of panic being felt by fans in Edmonton. While this start is certainly concerning, it is an overreaction to write off the Oilers this quickly. Through these first eight games, their expected even-strength goal share of 56% is fifth best in the league while their actual even-strength goal share of 44% ranks 23rd. This disparity is unlikely to persist over the course of the season, which is a positive sign for things to come. With the best player in the world on their team and a power play that remains formidable, the Oilers should be just fine.
Looking Forward
Looking to the rest of the season, it is reasonable to believe that the Sharks will continue on their historically bad pace, as they have shown no indication that they will be able to compete at the NHL level on a nightly basis. On a similar note, the Flames will likely continue to struggle and do not appear to be playoff contenders the way they are playing now. The Oilers, on the other hand, should rebound from their subpar start to the season and compete for a playoff spot. Finally, the Bruins are off to a great start, but they should not be considered one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup until they have consistently beaten other strong teams.
