When the curtain closed on the 2022-23 Pittsburgh Penguins, the team found itself in the unfamiliar position of sitting out the playoffs. Upon reflection, there were plenty of reasons why: inconsistent goaltending, mediocre special teams, and offense running dry during that crucial stretch run in March. Other than the steady Jake Guentzel and the reborn Jason Zucker, there wasn’t much to be happy about down the stretch.
One of those frustrated forwards was Bryan Rust, who, though playing on a line with Guentzel and Sidney Crosby, could only manage 20 goals on the year. Though it was a respectable tally, it was also the 31-year-old’s lowest output in four seasons. As he and his teammates look to return to the playoffs in 2023-24, so too will he look to rebound from last season.
Rust’s Performance in 2022-23
A season ago, Rust wasn’t terrible, and I said so in the player grades series. But he was disappointing. He started getting top-line minutes back in 2019-20 when he led the Penguins with 27 goals and was second with 56 points in 55 games. Over the next two seasons, he stayed on that top line and scored at a 30-goal, 60-point pace, and in fact, flirted with a point-per-game in 2021-22. But last season he fell flat.
The 20 goals he scored came in 81 games, and he added only 26 assists along the way. His production was down .399 points-per-game from a year prior, or a whopping 33 points over a full 82-game schedule.
Related: Penguins’ Crosby & Malkin Both Have Shot at 100 Points
Now, by comparison, I gave Zucker an A grade because his production had flattened upon his arrival in Pittsburgh, and expectations were lower. In 94 games with the team from 2019-22, Zucker scored only 22 goals and 47 points. Last season, he reemerged as a scoring threat alongside Evgeni Malkin for 27 goals, and 48 points.
Though neither winger produced much on the powerplay, two goals apiece, their even-strength production really illustrated how different their seasons went. Rust chipped in only 14 goals in 5-on-5 situations, while Zucker was the team’s leading triggerman with 24 goals. His 37 points, nine better than Rust, tied Guentzel for third among forwards behind Crosby and Malkin.
With Zucker now an Arizona Coyote and Guentzel out of the lineup until at least November, the Penguins will need Rust and the newly acquired Reilly Smith to fill the void left by both wingers. The last thing the Penguins need is to fall back in the standings early in the season.
Where the Penguins Are Heading into 2023-24
Much has been made of the Penguins’ busy 2023 offseason, and for good reason. After all, it isn’t often a team reels in a 100-point-scoring defenseman like Erik Karlsson. His puck-moving prowess can surely inject some life into what was a middling offense a season ago.
In 2022-23, despite having six players score 20 or more goals for the first time since 1995-96, the Penguins ranked 16th out of 32 teams with 261 goals scored. During the final 22 games of the season, beginning March 2, the Penguins managed only 67, a little over three a game, which resulted in their 10-10-2 record and their playoff absence.
Though there was plenty of blame for the team’s late-season collapse, Rust’s contribution was minimal. He scored only five goals, and nine points in 21 games over that time. Clearly more will be needed this time around.
The addition of Karlsson transforms the team’s offense into a potential juggernaut, and the aforementioned Smith offsets the loss of Zucker, and then some. But the onus will be on Rust. Was last season a blip, or is he now on the decline with age? He will get his chance to prove himself, and a weapon like Karlsson will help him get back to the levels he previously enjoyed.
And it won’t be just Karlsson. As Penguins’ training camp opens, there are plenty of forwards vying for a shot, including 2019 first-round pick Sam Poulin and Brayden Yager from this summer’s NHL Entry Draft. But whether the offensive pyrotechnics provided by Karlsson or the push from young talent looking for a job will motivate a bounce back from Rust, it will be up to him in the end.
