With the 2023 World Junior Championship (WJC) just around the corner and selection camps opening this week, I figured it’s time to look ahead and make some predictions before the tournament starts in full. This tournament is always filled with surprises and excitement, and this year will be no different.
Last year we saw Team Czechia push Canada to the brink in a Gold medal match that went to overtime and we saw a barn-burner between Sweden and USA in the Bronze medal game. Junior hockey is unpredictable so gathering 10 teams of the best junior-aged players in the world means this tournament is pretty tough to predict.
I’m going to try my hand at predicting some of the biggest news of the tournament before it begins, and I’ll even throw in a bonus, way-too-bold prediction for each entry to increase the likelihood that I’m wrong. Let’s get speculating!
1. Jiri Kulich Leads the Tournament in Scoring
Jiri Kulich has continually improved his stock over the past 18 months, going from possible second rounder in the 2022 Draft to being selected 28th overall by the Buffalo Sabres, to now being one of the very best prospects outside of the NHL. This age group is in a strange spot since most of the best players who qualify for this year’s tournament (Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Logan Cooley, etc.) are so good that they’re already full time NHLers.
Related: Guide to the 2024 World Junior Championship
That leaves Kulich as one of the biggest stars in the tournament, and I think he’ll lead not just Czechia in scoring, but the entire tournament. Last year was his rookie season in the American Hockey League (AHL) and he scored a remarkable 46 points as an 18-year-old. This year, he is on pace to easily surpass that total with 22 points in his first 22 games.
Kulich was an offensive leader for Czechia at last year’s tournament, with seven goals and nine points in seven games, and I think he has continued to grow and develop his game against pro players, further establishing himself on a level far above most of his peers.
Bonus Prediction: He scores a whopping 10 goals and 15 points in seven games
2. Axel Sandin Pellikka Named Best Defender of the Tournament
This award is totally up in the air at this point. We don’t have a Luke Hughes or a Rasmus Dahlin at this year’s tournament who can be the favorite going in, but there are several prospects who should be vying for the top spot when all is said and done. Lane Hutson will have a chance for Team USA while playing on their top powerplay, and Denton Mateychuk could have a similar role for Canada.
My pick right now has to be Axel Sandin Pellikka (ASP) for Sweden who I expect will be their undisputed number one defender all tournament long, playing big minutes from start to finish. He obviously has the offensive talent to shine in a short tournament like this (his nine goals leads all SHL defenders) and has shown enough two-way consistency to play difficult matchup minutes in close games as well.
ASP was named top defender at the U18 World Championships last Summer after leading Sweden to a Silver medal with 11 points in just seven games, and I think his experience in last year’s U20 tournament as a draft eligible will serve him well.
Bonus Prediction: Sandin Pellikka will score at least two goals from the left faceoff circle
3. Jacob Fowler Named Tournament’s Top Goaltender
This prediction could be proven wrong incredibly quickly, but I suppose that’s what makes it bold. There’s a good chance that Jacob Fowler doesn’t see the ice for more than one game in the group stage, as he’s battling with Trey Augustine for the starter’s net for Team USA. Both goalies were drafted in the 2023 Draft and have had phenomenal starts to their freshman seasons in the NCAA.
While Augustine may have the inside track based on his experience with USA Hockey, and in this very tournament just last year, there is no doubt that Fowler has been the better and more consistent goaltender in the NCAA to start the year. His size and explosive athleticism have made him a force to be reckoned with in College Hockey and I think it will translate exceptionally well to the U20 level as well, even against the best the age group has to offer.
Bonus Prediction: Fowler shuts out Slovakia, earning himself the starter’s net
4. Norway Survives Relegation
Norway finally made their way back into the top division of the World Junior Championship this year. This will be their first time competing in the top division since 2014 and I think they’ve got a real shot at avoiding relegation.
Norway has never survived relegation in this tournament’s highest level, but the talent of top 2024 Draft prospect Michael Brandsegg-Nygård could be enough to push them into a surprise win in the round robin, most likely against Switzerland who will be without their top NHL prospect Lian Bichsel this year.
If they can’t sneak out a victory in the group stage, then they will likely face one of Latvia or Germany in the relegation series and I like their chances of making a real battle of the series.
Bonus Prediction: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård scores at least four points in the group stage (would be more impressive than it sounds)
5. Canada Wins First Bronze Medal Since 2012
Canada’s roster this year doesn’t quite look up to their usual standards, with high end players like Bedard, Fantilli, Zach Benson, Kevin Korchinski, and more sitting out as a result of their NHL commitments. If they could have snagged even just one or two of those players they may be favorites to win the whole tournament once again, but instead they are counting on the likes of Conor Geekie, Matthew Savoie, and Macklin Celebrini.
Don’t get me wrong, Canada still has a wealth of talent up and down their roster, but they are likely going to need Celebrini to really pop as a draft eligible 17 year old if they want to have a chance to succeed this year. Luckily for them, I think he’ll be up to the task as a high-end two-way center who will be a mainstay in their top six forward group.
Related: 2024 NHL Draft Rankings – Horn’s Top 32 for October
I expect Canada’s depth, especially at forward, combined with the talent on their defensive group that includes the likes of Denton Mateychuk and Tristan Luneau to be enough to paper over their biggest weaknesses, namely their lack of a high-end goaltending prospect. If Canada can finish the group stage as one of the top two teams in Group A, they should have a great chance of making it to the medal round and winning at least Bronze.
Bonus Prediction: Matthew Savoie scores the game winner in the Bronze Medal game
6. Sweden Wins the Gold Medal
With the World Junior Championship finally taking place outside of Canada and being hosted in Gothenburg, Sweden, I think the hosts will once again take Gold. Sweden’s lineup is incredibly deep, particularly at forward where someone like Filip Bystedt or David Edstrom could conceivably be in their bottom six forward group.
The Djurgardens trio from the 2022 Draft of Jonathan Lekkermäki, Noah Ostlund, and Liam Öhgren are likely to stick together as a top-six line and other prospects like Otto Stenberg and Anton Wahlberg look primed to contribute. Sweden’s defensive group is solid as well with Axel Sandin Pellikka leading the way and each of Tom Willander, Elias Pettersson, and Elias Salmonsson rounding out a really strong top-four.
Sweden has the balance of star power and depth that it takes to make a run at Gold in a tournament like this, and it’s very likely that the only thing standing in their way of storming through the entire tournament is Team USA and their embarrassment of riches throughout their forward group. The addition of Leo Carlsson would have been most welcome for Sweden, but a center group including Edstrom, Bystedt, and Ostlund should be more than enough to compete.
Bonus prediction: Jonathan Lekkermäki scores the Golden Goal against USA in overtime
