Just when it looked as if Kaapo Kakko’s tenure with the New York Rangers was coming to an end, it’s possible that the sixth-year forward’s value to them is instead increasing.
Yes, Kakko, the second overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft who has become something of a whipping boy for a good portion of the fan base, has instead morphed into a player integral to the Blueshirts’ 7-2-1 start.
Such is the effect of the rise of the Rangers’ former “third” line of Will Cuylle, Filip Chytil and Kakko, which has, at least temporarily, supplanted the Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Reilly Smith unit as a significantly more productive group. It’s been so good, in fact, that it’s cast Kakko in a new light, one that might have the Rangers reconsidering whether he is part of the club’s future after all.
Coach Peter Laviolette had high hopes when he put together the three 20-something forwards in the preseason, but he almost certainly didn’t expect them to be this good. Driven by the relentless Chytil, who’s playing like a guy who missed 72 regular-season games due to injury in 2023-24, and the hard-nosed game of the rising Cuylle, the line has ground up opponents, posting a 63.2 expected goal share. The unit has outscored the opposition 9-0 at 5-on-5 while outchancing it 55-48, including 26-16 in the high-danger category.
Kakko, though, has been just as big a part of the good times for the trio. His seven points in 10 games are one fewer than Chytil’s and Cuylle’s. Coming off a mostly lost season due to a major injury of his own, the 23-year-old Finn’s offense – the primary reason why the Rangers drafted him where they did – might be at least starting to catch up somewhat to the all-around game that has always been an asset.
Kakko’s Game Growing With Cuylle, Chytil
Kakko’s positive underlying numbers are chugging right along as always, as he’s posted an individual 61.5 expected goal share. With him thriving in his partnership with Chytil and Cuylle, the Rangers might have to rethink whether they’ll actually be a better team without him.
Kakko will probably never be the elite offensive force that Jack Hughes, taken first overall in 2019, has become. What he might become is an above-average top- to middle-six winger with size who can possibly contribute 40-50 points a season while helping to drive possession and control play – in short, the kind of essential second-tier talent that deepens a roster and makes a team better.
“To me he is trying to attack a little bit more,” Laviolette said. “He has the puck on his stick, you can see it in practice, you can see it in games. We’ve been talking to him to get a little bit quicker to get to the offense, to get his shot off, to get to the front of the net. So there’s been some improvement there.”
Questions about how the Rangers handled Kakko’s early development are fair ones, and perhaps the scouting reports that painted Hughes and Kakko as near-identical prospects five years ago were simply wrong – as scouting reports often are. How the front office approaches the affable 6-foot-2, 206-pound player now, a season before his $2.4 million contract expires, is what matters.
Despite the non-linear path, Kakko is still developing, even if his ceiling isn’t close to what is expected out of such a high draft pick. What is clear is that the Rangers might have to start giving this young line more responsilibility – not just for the future, but this season, which has seen their one-time top line become the third-best option for Laviolette.
By most measures, Kreider-Zibanejad-Smith hasn’t been good. The trio has a 41.6 expected goal share, having been outchanced 53-37. That’s bordering on qualifying for the ultra-scientific description of “caved in” at even strength. Perhaps this improves – the Rangers can’t win the Stanley Cup without that happening – but even if that trio engineers a drastic turnaround, Laviolette is going to need the Cuylle-Chytil-Kakko unit to keep getting it done all season.
The longview question is whether this is a blip or the beginning of a decline for longtime linemates Kreider and Zibanejad as effective possession drivers. The duo has posted a 51.4 expected goal share since the start of 2022-23, but this season’s drop, though it’s early, has been precipitous.
Fortunately for the Rangers, who are probably in the last season or two of this Stanley Cup window, they might be watching the rise of a soon-to-be new top-six line. Chytil has been their best center. Cuylle’s scoring touch seems to be emerging to complement his heavy, hard-nosed game.
With less fanfare, Kakko might possibly have finally found the sweet spot in the lineup and the timeline in his development. If he can become more offensively productive and continue to post positive possession numbers, well, that’s exactly the kind of right wing the Rangers would be searching for if they were to part ways with Kakko during or after 2024-25.
Related: Rangers Suffering From Zibanejad’s Early Season Struggles
The salary cap hangs over everything the Rangers want to do next summer, of course. With the cap ceiling estimated to be around $92 million for 2025-26, the Rangers already have about $66 million committed to 12 players, with Igor Shesterkin’s expected monster extension and new contracts for defensemen K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider yet to be negotiated. While the club might subtract at least a part of Jacob Trouba’s $8 million hit, Kakko has remained a popular target for potential cost savings.
Replacing Kakko’s Contributions Might Not Be Easy for Rangers
Making $2.4 million on his one-year deal for 2024-25 ahead of restricted free agency with arbitration rights, Kakko will probably command a $4 million annual salary. Whether the Blueshirts are able to pay that is to be determined, but they might not be able to procure a cheaper, equivalent replacement from within the system or outside the organization.
Youngster Brett Berard impressed in camp and looks like he might have a future in the NHL, following up a breakout 2023-24 season for Hartford of the American Hockey League with another fast start for the Wolf Pack. Yet at 5-9 and 165 pounds, he’s a smaller player, and an unproven one. The Rangers would also be asking him to move to his off side, and the same goes for 2021 first-round pick Brennan Othmann, another talented but unproven prospect.
Acquiring a right wing via free agency or trade? That’s an option, but that player proving to be better than Kakko might be wishful thinking. Reilly Smith, the veteran who the Rangers acquired July 1 in the latest attempt to fill the right-wing spot on the Kreider-Zibanejad line, has been decent but hardly dominant, with two goals and four assists but a 47.4 expected goal share. At 33 and a pending unrestricted free agent, Smith is likely to be a one-year solution before the Blueshirts go back to looking for stability at the spot.
The Rangers have committed long-term to rising young right wing Alexis Lafreniere, signing him for seven years and $52.15 million. Beyond that, the Blueshirts face questions about how they’ll fill two others top-nine spots on that side. If Kakko is traded to save money, will they be able to find at least one other player with size and some scoring touch who consistently drives possession for $4 million or less?
Kakko’s potential might not match that of Hughes, but there’s still room to grow. The key factor in unlocking that might be that he’s got the right linemates now. Though multiple attempts to make him fit with Kreider and Zibanejad over the last few seasons yielded good underlying numbers – the trio has posted a 56.1 expected goal share in 454 minutes together since the start of the 2022-23 season – Kakko’s game never seemed to mesh well with the BFFs. Conversely, Cuylle and Chytil appear to better complement Kakko, who just looks to be on the same wavelength with the duo, albeit over a small sample size.
The Rangers – and their fans – would do well to accept that Kakko isn’t a “bust.” While he might not live up to the promise that vaulted him toward the top of the 2019 draft class, his value for what he might be a crucial part of – a potential future top-six forward unit that seems to be taking steps down that path in the early going of 2024-25 – shouldn’t be overlooked.