The Edmonton Oilers likely have one of the NHL’s best top-six forward groups heading into the 2023-24 season. Connor Brown was the big offseason signing, and he’s expected to start in the top six, joining Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman and Evander Kane.
The Oilers are poised to take a serious run at the Stanley Cup this season, but in order to do so, they need contributions from everyone, and they can’t solely rely on their top six forwards to be the difference-makers game in and game out. With that in mind, we rank the most valuable forwards outside of the top six and the impact they can have this season.
5. Warren Foegele
Forward Warren Foegele found his stride in an Oilers’ uniform last season after a mediocre first year in Edmonton. He recorded 13 goals and 15 assists in 67 games during the 2022-23 campaign and most of his points, except for a lone shorthanded goal, were recorded at even strength.
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When Foegele is at the top of his game, he plays in a bull-like manner, skating the puck from north to south and powering his way to the net. We also saw him use his hard and accurate shot more in his second season as an Oiler, and he showed that he can beat goaltenders cleanly.
However, he takes the last spot on the list of most important forwards beyond the top six players because of his limited minutes played on special teams. Last season, he ranked 17th on the team in penalty-killing minutes and 13th in minutes played on the power play.
Foegele is an ideal third-line winger that can step into a top-six role if injuries occur; however, with a cap hit of $2.75 million average annual value (AAV), he’s the most likely candidate to be traded if the Oilers need cap space to bring in more pivotal pieces at the trade deadline.
4. Derek Ryan
If Derek Ryan can reproduce his goal-scoring numbers from last season, the Oilers would be getting significant value off his $900,000 AAV contract. He potted 13 goals, with 11 of them scored at even strength, while also scoring two shorthanded goals. He went 50 percent in the faceoff circle and registered a plus-11 plus/minus rating in the regular season.
As well, he carried his responsible play into the postseason. Despite only tallying two points in 11 games, his puck management was impeccable, often in the right spots to skate the puck out of danger. As per data from Natural Stat Trick, at 5-on-5, Ryan ranked sixth in Corsi For percentage (CF%) among all players that played during the last NHL postseason. He also finished fifth in Fenwick percentage (FF%) and 11th in shots for percentage (SF%).
Ryan ranks ahead of Foegele as a more important Oiler due to his versatility. He was seventh in minutes played on the Oilers on the penalty kill last season, and he can play wing or center and will be tasked with taking important right-side draws in 2023-24. The 36-year-old is in the latter half of his career, but his versatility and veteran leadership, while earning $900,000 AAV, should be advantageous for the club.
3. Mattias Janmark
Mattias Janmark is not an offensive dynamo, but he’s a veteran that’s smart with the puck and can chip in on offence. Not only that, but he’s a workhorse on the penalty kill, finishing second in shorthanded minutes played among forwards (128:10), finishing behind only Nugent-Hopkins (153:24), while scoring three short-handed goals as well last season.
Janmark didn’t play a full season last year, having started in the American Hockey League (AHL) but he’s slated to start in the Oilers’ bottom six from the get-go this season. With familiarity with the club, I anticipate he’ll be more comfortable from the start, which could also raise his offensive output of 25 points (with minimal power play time) from last season.
As well, he is rated higher on this list than Foegele and Ryan because he plays more minutes (averages roughly three minutes more per game) and he’ll again be counted on to be a leader on the penalty kill. At the same time, I feel he has more offence in him than he demonstrated last season.
2. Dylan Holloway
Forward Dylan Holloway could’ve been slotted anywhere from the fifth spot to the number one spot, but he takes second place on this list of most essential forwards outside of the top six, based on the potential impact he could provide next season.
The former first-round pick has the most game-breaking potential out of the bottom-six group at this point, and we witnessed a small preview of his capabilities last season. He only scored three goals in 51 games, but he showed glimpses throughout the year of his potential, like when he lasered a shot off the post for his first NHL goal past former Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin, last November.
The Oilers need Holloway to take the next step this season and his trend of making a significant impact in his second season across various leagues he’s played in is a positive sign. For example, in his second full season of junior, he jumped from 27 points to 88 points in 55 games in the Alberta Junior Hockey League (AJHL).
Moreover, in his second season playing in the NCAA, he jumped from 17 points in 35 games in his first season, to 35 points in 23 games the year after. If this trend carries over into the NHL, it could spell good news for the Oilers.
Holloway will likely start on the third line this season, but will likely get ample opportunity to showcase his skills in the top six, should injuries arise. He possesses the size and raw skill to make an impact, and it’s in his hands to leave a mark and provide secondary scoring for his team in 2023-24.
1. Ryan McLeod
Fresh off a newly signed, two-year, $2.1 million AAV contract, Oilers’ forward Ryan McLeod is the team’s most important player outside of the top six. With Edmonton’s inability to re-sign hulking centerman Nick Bjugstad, McLeod has a golden opportunity in front of him in 2023-24.
He took a step last season increasing his points per game (P/G) from 0.29 P/G in the 2021- 22 season to 0.40 P/G and recorded a career-high 23 points. Also, according to Puck IQ, he played 129 minutes against elite competition and 258 against middle, whereas next season, I’d anticipate him to play even more minutes against the league’s best.
McLeod didn’t score many points last postseason (five assists in 12 games), but his underlying metrics were fantastic. In five of the six games in the second round against the Vegas Golden Knights, his line generated an outstanding 77.14 CF%, 75.43 SF%, 74.80 scoring chances for percentage (SCF%), and 81 high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%).
That said, if he can hone his experience of last season’s playoffs to become consistent defensively and utilize his speed night in and night out to pose as an even more significant offensive threat, he has the makings to become a top third-line centerman in the NHL.
It remains to be seen if the Oilers will go the traditional 12 forwards and six defencemen route this season, but if so, there should be healthy competition for the last spot up front with players like Raphael Lavoie, Lane Pederson and Brandon Sutter pushing for NHL jobs.
What are your thoughts on the list above? Should certain players be ranked higher or lower? Have your say in the comments below!
