When Buffalo Sabres general manager (GM) Kevyn Adams traded for Bowen Byram last season, he knew that he would have to renew his contract either in the summer of 2024 or 2025. Well, Byram is set to become a restricted free agent (RFA) after this season. He is also eligible for arbitration.
What is arbitration? It is when the player and team cannot come to terms on a new contract, so a third party becomes involved and decides the player’s salary. The contract length is usually a one to two-year deal. Click here for a more in-depth look at arbitration.
Career Year
Byram is having the best season of his career at both ends of the ice. From a baseline stat standpoint, he has played 37 games, recording 20 points (four goals and 16 assists). He’s already hit a career-high in assists and is five points away from reaching his career-high in points (he recorded 24 points in 2022-23 with the Colorado Avalanche). Does it help that he’s been playing with Rasmus Dahlin? Yes, it sure does but both players, who are great puck-moving defensemen, have been very responsible in the defensive end as well, which is why the pair have worked so well together.
The underlying numbers show that Byram is playing extremely well too. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in offense and the 71st percentile in defense. He’s developed his two-way game very well which has been a key contributor during the Sabres’ current three-game winning streak. This season, Byram has an even-strength offense goals above replacement (GAR) of over nine. His even-strength defense GAR stands out as well sitting at just under six (all percentile ranks and GAR numbers are from evolvinghockey.com).
The 23-year-old defenseman will seemingly get better as his career goes on. His decision-making and hockey IQ have only grown not only since entering the league but also since getting traded to Buffalo not too long ago. Wherever he ends up long-term, look for him to become one of the league’s top two-way defensemen as he enters his prime.
Byram Wants to Be a Number One Defenseman
There happens to be one issue with the Sabres signing him to a long-term contract. Byram would eventually like to become a team’s number one defenseman. With the Sabres already having Dahlin and Owen Power on the blue line, that is tough. With Dahlin being the team’s number one defenseman, right now Byram is the team’s number two defenseman. Who knows, maybe if Byram signs a long-term contract in Buffalo, Power will surpass Byram and become the team’s number two defenseman and Byram gets stuck as the number three defenseman.
Another tidbit from Friedman
— Joe Marino 🌴 (@JoeMarinoBUF) December 16, 2024
There’s a belief that Bowen Byram eventually wants to be the number one defenseman on whatever team he’s playing for and that’s something to keep an eye out as he gets closer to UFA status
Byram is good enough to be a team’s number one defenseman as we just went over the numbers that he is producing so far this season. There was even a hypothetical trade that Elliotte Friedman proposed on one of his episodes of the 32 Thoughts Podcast. The trade consisted of Byram and Dylan Cozens going to the Vancouver Canucks for Elias Pettersson. In the case that would actually happen, Byram would still be the number two defenseman in Vancouver as they already have a Norris Trophy candidate of their own in Quinn Hughes. So even then, the Canucks would be in danger of losing Byram long-term.
Byram Has the Upper Hand
Byram is currently in the final year of his two-year contract worth $3.85 million average annual value (AAV). He is due for a huge pay raise. With him still being an RFA, the Sabres still have his rights until he becomes an unrestricted free agent (UFA) during the summer of 2028, or until the team trades him. What if I told you that the ball is completely in Byram’s court though?
We’ve seen players take their contracts to arbitration (most recently Martin Necas with the Carolina Hurricanes) and they get a two-year deal that takes them right to UFA status. So, the player either proves that he’s worth more money or he simply does not want to play for a team longer than he has to. In Byram’s case, there are a few options he can opt for.
Related: Is it Too Late for the Buffalo Sabres to Save Their Season?
The first option is to go to arbitration, get a one-to-two-year deal then after that’s up go to arbitration again and take the contract to UFA status. He can then test the free agency market and possibly leave to become that number one defenseman on a team like I mentioned Friedman has stated earlier.
The second option is signing a bridge deal of a three-year contract, which would take him to UFA status then get even more money from the Sabres or if they are not willing to give him the money he asks for, leave in free agency in the summer of 2028 to a team that is willing to fulfill his asks and wants.
The third option, and honestly the least likely in my opinion, is signing a long-term contract with the Sabres. It’d be a max eight-year contract that could be worth up to $10-11 million AAV. The reason I think this is the least likely outcome is because of one of the reasons I mentioned and because Dahlin is making $11 million AAV. I truly wonder if Byram can keep up his current play that he asks for what Dahlin is making or possibly even more money, maybe closer to $12 million? The market does shift every year and with the cap going up it’s not a bad ask, but do the Sabres refuse to pay him more than what Dahlin is making? That’s my only question.
What Could Byram’s Next Contract Look Like?
I do think the most likely and realistic option for Byram is to sign a three-year contract with an AAV of around $8-9 million. That will take him to UFA status, which is not the ideal scenario for the Sabres. If they can sign Byram to a long-term deal, that is a win for the team. If he does not end up agreeing to a new deal with the Sabres, do not be shocked if the two parties head to arbitration to settle the contract dispute in the upcoming offseason.
Will Byram stay with the Sabres long-term? Or will he find a new home by 2028?
