These are the dog days of summer, and there’s no better time for hardcore Ottawa Senators fans to try to predict which prospects might be earning a paycheque as a roster regular in 2023-24.
I’ll come right out and say it – I don’t think any prospect will crack the lineup this year. Even so, I like fantasy hockey as well as the next guy, so let’s jump in and make some predictions. But before we do, let’s define a few terms.
What people mean by “prospect” varies, but for our purposes, let’s borrow from The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, who defines a prospect as a player who has played fewer than 25 games in any one season, including the playoffs and fewer than 50 in their career. They are no older than 25. (from Corey Pronman, “Pronman’s 2019-20 NHL farm system rankings” The Athletic, 5/9/2019)
Related: The NHL’s Top 100 Prospects – Midseason Rankings
As for “crack” the lineup, let’s define that as a player who earns a regular spot in the lineup as opposed to stepping in temporarily to cover injuries. In other words, we’re talking about prospects who can skate their way into the lineup by knocking out a current roster regular.
That’s a tall order, and the list of players who could do it isn’t long. Let’s face it, outside of the Brady Tkachuks of this world, breaking into the NHL is a longshot for most prospects, even promising ones. Some will be in the league only long enough for the proverbial cup of coffee, while many more will toil in the minors.
Why Cracking the Senators’ 2023-24 Lineup Will Be Hard
The Senators’ current talent pipeline is respectable by league standards but not what it was a few years ago when it boasted the likes of Tim Stutzle, Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson. There aren’t many among this year’s crop of prospects who could play their way into the lineup based on a good training camp.
Making it even harder for a prospect to crack the Senators’ lineup this year is that the team is now a contender. Its roster has a hard competitive edge to it, and anyone on the depth chart now will be hard to unseat.
Have a look at what I think the opening night roster will look like. Then try to name a prospect who could take one of them out.
Forward Lines
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
| Tkachuk | Stutzle | Vladimir Tarasenko |
| Drake Batherson | Josh Norris | Claude Giroux |
| Dominik Kubalik | Shane Pinto | Mathieu Joseph |
| Parker Kelly | Mark Kastelic | Zack MacEwan |
Defence Pairings
| Left Defence | Right Defence |
| Sanderson | Artem Zub |
| Thomas Chabot | Jakob Chychrun |
| Erik Brannstrom | Travis Hamonic |
The club needs to sign Pinto this summer but doesn’t have the cap space to do it. To get it, dumping Joseph seems like the obvious move for Senators general manager (GM) Pierre Dorion. That could open an opportunity for a prospect to make the lineup.
Related: Senators’ Fans Weigh In on Clearing Cap Space to Sign Pinto
What’s more, fourth-liners Kelly, MacEwan and Kastelic could be vulnerable to a prospect who turns heads at training camp in September. After all, they all make about the league minimum salary, and none are indispensable. Plus, Dorion would probably wager that all of them would clear waivers.
The 3 Prospects Who Could Crack 2023-24 Senators Roster
If I had to bet today, I’d give three players odds (but long ones) of cracking the lineup this season. Here’s where I’d put my nickels.
Ridly Greig
Before Tarasenko came to town, I had Greig slotted on the second line with Norris and Batherson. He may end up playing left wing on the third line if Joseph is traded.
The former captain of the Brandon Wheat Kings in the tough-as-nails Western Hockey League (WHL) put up 29 points in 39 games last season in Belleville and went 2-7-9 with the Senators in 20 games. That’s impressive for a 21-year-old kid.
Greig is a high-intensity, all-around player who can play at both centre and wing. He’s a playmaker, a strong skater and very bad-tempered. Once he fills out, he’ll be able to combine his nastiness, brawn and skill into a formidable package.
Jacob Bernard-Docker
Now, Bernard-Docker is a sure bet to spend time with the big club but as a scratch – at least to start the season. He might make the roster as a regular skater, but only if Travis Hamonic struggles. That’s unlikely, but if he did, Bernard-Docker could seize the opportunity and replace him.
Up to now, he’s been a young player considered to be on the threshold of becoming an NHLer. Even so, his American Hockey League (AHL) points production has been middling; he notched 2-4-6 over 41 games last season.
Dorion would face the risk of losing Bernard-Docker if he sent him down to Belleville since he’s no longer waiver exempt. There’s a good chance he wouldn’t clear waivers, and it’s doubtful Dorion would risk sending him down to Belleville.
Bernard-Docker is confident and looks at home on the Senators’ blue line. While not considered big as NHL defenders go, he’s mobile, has a good shot and has shown he can lead the power play from the rear. His positioning and defensive zone coverage could use some work, but he’s only 23 with just 32 games in a Senators sweater to his credit over three seasons.
Egor Sokolov
A fan favourite, Sokolov needs a contract for next season, and Dorion will be looking to clear cap space to sign him. Like Bernard-Docker, I think Sokolov will be with the Senators as a scratch to start the season. Yet a strong case can be made that the leading scorer in Belleville last season deserves to be in Ottawa.
At 6-foot-3 and 223 pounds, the versatile winger who can play either side of the faceoff circle brings a physical presence to the Senators’ lineup. He has a knack for scoring goals and isn’t afraid to go to the dirty areas in front of the net to get them.
Even so, the knock on him is that his skating is weak and his speed slow. He’s never been accused of having soft hands. He needs to be better in the defensive zone and more consistent from game to game and seems to disappear from time to time.
Senators Fans Will See Other Prospects in 2023-24
No one can know how the stars will align this season for Ottawa’s long list of prospects. Aside from Greig, Sokolov and Bernard-Docker, few will spend much time in the big club’s lineup. Still, some are sure to get a look at some point this season.
First, injuries are a constant in the NHL, and the Senators have had their fair share of them over the last few years. Nobody hopes for them, but they do open opportunities for young prospects.
What’s more, this is hockey, and dark horses can emerge from anywhere to turn management’s head and steal the hearts of fans. You can bet that every rookie in Belleville will be watching who is struggling in Ottawa and dreaming of getting a shot at replacing them.
The Senators would want a look at wingers Angus Crookshank and Roby Jarventie if the opportunity arose to call them up. They notched 41 and 30 points, respectively, in Belleville last year.
Tyler Kleven will be a colossus on the Senators’ blue line someday and played in eight NHL games last year. Fans loved his physical play, and he’d be an obvious consideration for a call-up if needed. So would Max Guenette, who led all Belleville blueliners with 40 points last season.
The Senators’ roster is never set in stone. This season, fans will surely get a peek at more than just a few of the future stars.
