Dawson Mercer burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2021-22, playing in all 82 games and totaling 17 goals and 42 points. The 18th overall pick in the 2020 draft showed his potential, raising expectations for his sophomore season in the NHL.
Mercer didn’t disappoint in 2022-23, finishing with 27 goals and 56 points in 82 games. After a slow start, he picked it up during the second half of the season and consistently found himself in the top-six alongside either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. Now getting ready to enter his third year in the NHL, the soon-to-be 22-year-old still has room to grow as a top-nine forward.
Mercer’s 2022-23 Season
What Mercer did as a rookie was impressive. He produced on a team that bottomed out and ended up with the second overall pick in the 2022 draft. He averaged 1.71 points per 60 minutes and finished with a 50.3 expected goals percentage (xG%) at five-on-five, solid numbers for a first-year player on a bad team.
His microstats also painted a picture of someone who had the potential to take a further step forward in 2022-23. His shooting and passing metrics graded out well, but he was also solid in transition, showing an ability to move the puck efficiently through the neutral zone.
Mercer seemed to build on that and was highly productive again in 2022-23, averaging 2.04 points/60 at five-on-five. He finished with a 55.86 xG% and became a fixture alongside Tomáš Tatar and Hischier during the second half of the season, one of the best line combos head coach Lindy Ruff put together in 2022-23.
But even though Mercer’s production improved, his microstats took a step back. He wasn’t as efficient in transition, and his passing and shooting metrics declined some. Even his shooting ability off the rush took a step back. The play-driving potential he showed as a rookie didn’t disappear, but it didn’t progress as hoped.
You might be wondering why Mercer’s production increased as much as it did if his microstats fell off a bit. He played alongside the Devils’ best players, particularly during the second half of the year, and totaled 16 goals over his final 29 games. But he did so by shooting an unsustainably high 21.9 percent. He is an underrated shooter, but shooting nearly 22 percent is unreasonable over a bigger sample.
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That’s why improving in transition and showing some more ability to drive a line will be important for Mercer in 2023-24. He doesn’t have to become Jesper Bratt, one of the best play-driving wingers in the league. But after acquiring Tyler Toffoli and with the potential for Alexander Holtz to make the roster, it’s no guarantee Mercer logs consistent top-six minutes this coming season.
Where Mercer Could Figure in Devils’ 2023-24 Lineup
Mercer spent most of his minutes alongside Hughes and Hischier this past season and posted very good results with each. He spent just above 371 minutes on a line with Hischier, totaling a 53.95 Corsi for percentage (CF%) and 63.11 xG%. They also overwhelmingly controlled the grade-A and grade-B chances.
Part of that is because of the previously mentioned line with Tatar and Hischier that skated teams into the ground. Tatar remains an unrestricted free agent, so it’s possible he could return to the Devils. But for argument’s sake, let’s say that he doesn’t return — the most likely scenario — one option for Mercer is to play alongside Hischier and Timo Meier.
Meier, Hischier and Mercer played together a bit after the Devils acquired Meier ahead of the trade deadline and showed potential, posting a 71.77 xG%. With Meier and Hischier’s play-driving ability, it erases any concern about Mercer needing to drive a line and would give the Devils a first unit that should control play at five-on-five.
If Mercer doesn’t fit alongside Hischier, Hughes obviously wouldn’t be a bad option, given their results together in 2022-23; they spent 309 minutes as linemates and posted a 53.14 xG%. Much of their time came with Erik Haula at left wing, but I’d guess that changes this season with how the team’s roster is constructed.
But the X-factor for where Mercer may spend the most of his minutes in the lineup this season is Holtz. If Holtz shows he’s ready for a full-time NHL role, he’d be best off in the top-six alongside Hughes and Bratt, the Devils’ two best facilitators, something Holtz will need to thrive in the NHL.
With Toffoli in the mix, that’d push Mercer down to the third line with players like Ondrej Palát and Haula. Mercer played well with Palát in a small sample last season, totaling a 61.34 xG% in about 76 minutes. He had some chemistry with Haula on a line with Hughes, so this is another combination that could work.
Expectations for Mercer in Year 3
Expectations should be high but reasonable for Mercer in his third NHL season. After nearly hitting 30 goals and 60 points, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to get close again on a Devils team that should have one of the best offenses in the NHL.
Even though some of his play-driving dropped off last season, he did improve his forechecking, so he added that element to his game. Still, it would help Mercer if he worked on improving his facilitating since it’s not a guarantee that he’ll play significant top-six minutes with Toffoli on the roster and Holtz potentially in the mix.
Mercer won’t shoot 21.9 percent over a full schedule, but he is a 14 percent shooter for his career. Another 25-goal, 50-plus point campaign would be a success, and anything more is a bonus. He still has room for growth, especially when it comes to facilitating. Combined with a team that has plenty of firepower, and he should be in for another productive season.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
