To punch a ticket to postseason play next spring, the Ottawa Senators will need to do a lot of things differently. One of them is to get off to a good start – something that has eluded them the last few years.
Schedules can sometimes have a big influence on whether a team can get a leg up early in the season. So how difficult is the schedule facing the Senators in October and November in the upcoming campaign?
Senators Must Avoid Repeat of Start to 2023-24 Season
That the Senators can’t see a repeat of their start to the 2023-24 season goes without saying. By American Thanksgiving last year, they had played themselves out of playoff contention winning just eight of the 17 games they played in October and November for a disappointing .471 points percentage (PTS%).
In response, the team seemed to take a page from the playbook of Mad Magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman asking, “What, me worry? After all, it was only November and there was plenty of time to make up lost ground to secure a playoff berth.
The problem was that the hole they had dug for themselves by that point was a deep one and meant they’d have to win an average of better than six of every 10 games remaining in their schedule to have a shot at a wild card spot. Despite all the hype at the start of last season, the Senators were nowhere near being a .600 hockey club.
Related: Why the Ottawa Senators’ 2023-24 Season Was a Failure
Nobody is going to place the blame for the Senators’ dismal showing last season on the schedule NHL planners saddled them with during the first two months of last season. Yet it certainly didn’t help.
The Senators complained that there was no steady rhythm to the schedule at the start of last season. In the 48 days from Oct. 11 to Nov. 27, they played just 17 games averaging roughly a game every three days – well short of the preferred pace for most teams of a game every other day.
Yet what made it worse was that there were stretches in the early part of last season when the team went four or five days between games taking away any chance of developing a tempo to their season. Not only that, but the Senators spent a week in Sweden playing two games as part of the NHL’s 2023 Global Series. Those were the only two games the team played in the almost two weeks between Nov. 12 and Nov. 23.
The Global Series was fun, but it was a distraction. When the team returned to action in North America they dropped seven of their next 10 games. That losing streak meant making the 2024 Playoffs was a bridge too far.
Senators’ Early Schedule in 2024-25 Is a Tough One
The early part of their schedule last season was a doozy, but how tough is this season’s schedule from opening night on Oct. 10 until the end of November? During that time the Senators will play 23 games evenly split between home and away. That’s over a quarter of their season and by then, fans will have a pretty good idea of whether their team is playoff-bound.
In October the Senators are scheduled to play nine games – five at home and four away. Three of the games they will play away are on an easy three-day swing through the Western Conference in late October. For the most part, they’ll play a game every other day.
Even so, Ottawa’s schedule in October will be keeping their president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios up at night given that five of the teams his squad will face were playoff teams in 2024. Six of them are on a list of teams that Las Vegas odds-makers say will make the 2025 Playoffs. Listed are the Florida Panthers, Los Angeles Kings, New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche.
Historically, wild card teams need to have a PTS% of around .600, meaning that on average they need to win six of every 10 games over the course of the season. So where can the Senators find six wins in October?
Here’s my take:
| October Opponents | Probability of a Senators Win |
| Montreal Canadiens, Utah Hockey Club, St. Louis Blues | High |
| Lightning, Golden Knights | 50/50 |
| Panthers, Kings, Devils, Avalanche | Low |
If this chart is right, then in October the Senators have three games in the proverbial bag and two that they have an even shot at winning. That’s five games that could well be in Ottawa’s win column. So, they’ll need to steal a game from one or more of the Panthers, Kings, Devils or Avalanche to hit their .600 PTS% target. That will be no easy task.
The schedule doesn’t get any easier in November. The Senators will play 14 games over the month of which eight are against teams that made the playoffs last season including the Stanley Cup championship finalist Edmonton Oilers led by Connor McDavid. What’s more, eight November games are against teams that Vegas odds-makers peg as playoff teams in 2025. Even so, in November their schedule features roughly a game every other day and has them playing all but two of their games in the Eastern time zone.
How easy will it be for Ottawa to put up eight or nine wins in November to stay on pace for a .600 PTS%? Here’s what I see.
| November Opponents | Probability of a Senators Win |
| Seattle Kraken, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, Calgary Flames, San Jose Sharks | High |
| Buffalo Sabres, Golden Knights | 50/50 |
| Edmonton Oilers, Kings, Hurricanes, New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks | Low |
If the Senators beat all the teams they should – that is, win against those teams that I’ve assigned them either high or even odds of beating, they’d have seven games in the win column. That means they’ll need to take at least one from the seven teams against whom I think they have poor odds of winning. That seems doable and if they can, they’ll stay on track for a wild card spot next spring.
Can the Senators Be a .600 Hockey Club?
There’s no question that to win a wild card spot in the playoffs next spring the Senators need to notch a PTS% of .600. It’s not often that teams do so with much less. That will be a tall order for the Senators who in the last five full seasons they’ve played averaged a PTS% of just .442. Still, they are an improved team this season with seemingly all the pieces in place to vie for a wild card spot.
Yet one thing is certain, they face a tough schedule at the start of the year and that makes getting off to a strong start a challenge.
