Eliminating the two most recent Stanley Cup winners in the postseason already, the Dallas Stars’ road to the Western Conference Final has not been easy. For their next series, they host an Edmonton Oilers team hunting their first win in the third round of the postseason since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2006.
The Oilers should be a serious challenge for the Stars, being as good offensively and defensively as any team left in the postseason. How can Dallas keep the dream of winning their first championship of the 21st century alive?
Play & Win a Low-Event Style
A theme for the Stars, especially late in their first- and second-round series, was their ability to manipulate games to play a low-event style. The Vegas Golden Knights really stood no chance when they stopped getting high-danger scoring looks, and the same thing interestingly happened to a Colorado Avalanche team loaded with talent in the second round.
Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, who had a combined 244 points in 162 regular season contests (1.51 points per game), had just 10 points in 12 combined games against the Stars (0.83 points per game). If Dallas can shut down the scoring output of perhaps the best player in the NHL currently and arguably a top-15 forward on top of that, it says a lot about how dominant they are. The Stars play the game they want — teams have to adapt.
If the Stars can mitigate the offense of the Avalanche as a whole, doing the same to the Oilers doesn’t seem so outlandish. No team scored more goals than Colorado in the regular season, yet suddenly they didn’t seem so formidable against Dallas. Edmonton has a similar level of superstar talent and depth as the Avalanche, so the series is essentially a carbon copy in that way.
Contrary to what some might think, the Oilers have a very strong defense and solid depth. However, if you take the impact of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman away, their offense is much less potent. Those three will make their contributions no matter what, but if they don’t completely take over the series, the Stars’ chances look good.
Have the Better Goalie, Win the Series
Probably the biggest advantage for the Stars in the series is their play in net. Stuart Skinner of the Oilers has a high upside, being a legitimately great starter when he’s hot, but his lows can be devastating. In these playoffs, he was kept on the bench for Calvin Pickard in multiple games against the Vancouver Canucks. That eventually stopped, but it’s important to consider.
For Dallas, Jake Oettinger has been good the entire postseason, but he flipped a switch in Game 3 all the way back in the first round against Vegas. From that point forward, he has a .927 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.93 goals-against average (GAA). For reference, Skinner boasts a .881 SV% and a 2.87 GAA overall. Things can always change, but right now the goaltending significantly favors Dallas.
As long as Oettinger is playing at least decent, the Stars could run away with the series. When he has struggled a bit, which has been rare, Dallas couldn’t really make up for it. When he’s playing good to elite, his team shines the most. Everything becomes easier when you get goaltending in the postseason, especially with a dominant puck possession team like the Stars.
Top Scorers Need to Have an Impact
In terms of scoring in the playoffs, the Stars and Oilers have been very different. The latter has scored plenty, leaning on their superstars to carry the load. Dallas, meanwhile, has had contributions throughout their lineup. Of all people, Wyatt Johnston and Miro Heiskanen have scored 31.6 percent of the goals; more top players need to put the puck in the back of the net.
Related: Dallas Stars’ Miro Heiskanen on Pace to Have Record-Breaking Playoffs
Roope Hintz wasn’t having the greatest playoff run, then he got injured against Colorado. Assuming he returns against the Oilers, he will have to improve upon his two goals and six points in 11 contests. Joe Pavelski, an 18-season veteran in the NHL hunting for his first Stanley Cup, will also have to impact the scoreboard more than his single goal and four points in 13 games. If no one can respond to McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and even Evan Bouchard who is having an incredible playoff run, the Stars are destined for failure.
In overtime against the Avalanche in Game 6, Matt Duchene took over and ended the series with what could end up being the biggest goal of his life. He’s not in the same conversation as a player like Jason Robertson in terms of talent, but he is still a top-six player. Goals like this can change a series entirely; your best players have to be your best players.
Considering how well the Stars handled the Avalanche, they should be up to what the Oilers have to bring. This series has the potential to be a really fun one when all is said and done.
