We’re less than a month away from the 2024-25 season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning will be back in action with a new dynamic to the roster. The team added and subtracted at forward and defense this offseason. Players like Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Mikhail Sergachev, and J.J. Moser are some of the players who have either come in or have gone out.
Related: Lightning’s Hedman Talks Stamkos Departure & Captain Potential
With all the changes, let’s focus on some critical pieces heading into the season. We will review their performance from last season, their role for the upcoming season, and expectations for them. Today, we will cover one of the Lightning’s breakout performers from the previous season — Nick Paul, who set a few career-highs.
Recapping Paul’s 2023-24 Campaign
Paul was a 2022 Trade Deadline acquisition, where the Lightning added other vital pieces to the roster today in Brandon Hagel. After all, that 2021-22 roster was under-appreciated for their efforts. Since coming over from the Ottawa Senators, Paul has established himself as the perfect middle-six, two-way scoring punch for the Lightning. Plus, he took advantage of a golden opportunity last season on special teams.
The 2023-24 season was a career one for Paul, as the 29-year-old recorded career-bests in goals, primary assists, and points. Across his first 82-game regular season, he had 24 goals, 13 primary assists, and 46 points. His previous best totals came the season prior with Tampa Bay, where he had 17 goals and 32 points in 80 games. Paul scored several goals on the Lightning’s top power-play unit, where he became the net frontman. He notched nine goals and a career-high 14 points on the man advantage.
While Paul wasn’t the most intriguing five-on-five offensive player last season, he remained stellar defensively similar to recent season. He suppressed quality scoring chances when on the ice, as the Lightning allowed expected goals at five on five nine percent less than the league average last season (via HockeyViz). Furthermore, Paul ranked third amongst Lightning forwards in defensive zone start percentage (DZS%), proving head coach Jon Cooper placed trust in the Canadian forward. For the most part, Paul did this against the opposing top-six forwards, making him a reliable shutdown guy.
Paul even earned a few games on the top line alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, where he played solid. However, as time passed, Paul struggled with the quick pace of opponents’ top lines. While he can defend against forwards of this caliber, that’s where all his energy was devoted, causing him to lack offensive possession and generate scoring chances. Paul is best suited for a middle-six center role, not a top-line winger position. With that said, let’s talk about his role for the 2024-25 season.
Paul’s Role for the 2024-25 Season
The Lightning bench boss learned more about Paul in his second season with the team. He discovered Paul was best suited for a third-line, two-way center role and could be used on special teams if needed. With the addition of Cam Atkinson, Paul likely won’t see any top-six minutes for the upcoming season. However, he will drive the offense on the third line.
DailyFaceoff has Paul centering Michael Eyssimont and Conor Sheary to open the 2024-25 season. Despite a down campaign from Sheary last season, the Lightning hope he can rejuvenate his career now that he’s healthy. On his other wing, Eyssimont is also coming off a career-best season, so the Lightning hope to continue his growth as an all-around offensive player. Ultimately, this line has a good punch of experience and tenacity. Moreover, they can be dangerous on the forecheck with historic puck-pressure players like Paul and Sheary.
Expectations for Paul’s 2024-25 Season
Paul’s numbers may look slightly different this season because he is likely off the first power-play unit. The plan is for 26-year-old star Brandon Hagel to jump on the first unit, likely in place of Stamkos on the left circle. That leaves Guentzel, who has terrific hand-eye coordination and natural scoring ability, as the net-front man in place of Paul. The other three positions of the power play will remain the same.
A stat line of around 15 goals and 35-40 points is a reasonable projection for Paul without power-play minutes. However, we could easily see him back in the 20-goal and 45-point tier with some power-play time. Paul is a reliable, two-way center for the Lightning who will be here for a long time moving forward.
