As the NHL turns the page to begin the next chapter of hockey for the 2024-25 season, the Tampa Bay Lightning gear up for a new season with high expectations. While the offseason featured some surprise moves at the top of the lineup for the Lightning, including a Mikhail Sergachev trade, Steven Stamkos loss, and Jake Guentzel addition, the team made some changes to the bottom of the lineup. Using DailyFaceoff’s line combinations, let’s uncover what this Lightning fourth line might look like at puck drop on opening night.
The Fourth Line: Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mitchell Chaffee
The new-look Lightning fourth line features a new face to the organization in Zemgus Girgensons. The Latvian native spent his entire NHL career as a member of the Buffalo Sabres and has yet to appear in a Stanley Cup playoff game at 30 years old. Tampa Bay signed the depth forward to a multi-year deal in free agency at a cost-effective cap hit.
Related: Have the Tampa Bay Lightning Improved Over the Offseason?
Furthermore, this line finished with Luke Glendening, a veteran centerman around the league known for his ability in the faceoff circle. Despite his struggles on offense, he can skate like the wind at 35 years old. He also provides stable results on the penalty kill while being a responsible guy for defensive zone draws.
Finally, this fourth line features a surprise project player from the organization last season, Mitchell Chaffee. This late bloomer came from the Minnesota Wild organization and played 30 games last season for the Bolts, plus their playoff series against the Florida Panthers. With his tenacious play style and work ethic, Chaffee makes a perfect bottom-six forward.
With each player briefly introduced, it’s fair that the Lightning upgraded their bottom-six heading into the 2024-25 season. Expect this fourth line to play responsible defensive hockey while grinding out opposing teams via the forecheck. While not gifted with offensive skills, they might be able to chip in on the score sheet here and there. Now, let’s break down each player a little more in-depth.
Left Wing: Zemgus Girgensons
Relative to other bottom-six forwards of his caliber, the Lightning did a fantastic job of finding this cost-efficient unrestricted free agent. Today, Barclay Goodrow and David Kampf earn north of $2.5 million a season for 4-6 years. Instead, Tampa Bay signed Girgensons for three seasons at less than $1 million. Not known for his offensive prowess, he can give you around ten goals and 20 points in the bottom six.
Where Girgensons shines is the defensive zone. He was amongst the Sabres’ best defensive forwards over the years. He ranks fifth amongst Buffalo forwards in 5-on-5 expected goals against per hour (xGA/60) over the past three seasons. Furthermore, he posted these results in a trusted defensive role. His 14.1% defensive zone start percentage (DZS%) ranks third amongst Sabres’ forwards over that same span.
Moreover, Girgensons played vital minutes in a penalty-killing role, which the Lightning can use him in if needed. For more specific details about his game, Girgensons thrives in defensive zone exits and forechecking microstats (via AllThreeZones). Ultimately, Lightning fans should be amped for the “Latvian Locomotive” on the fourth line this season.
Center: Luke Glendening
The first of two Michigan natives on this line, Glendening plays a hard-nosed, aggressive brand of hockey the Lightning have lacked since the departure of Corey Perry and Pat Maroon. Head coach Jon Cooper likes to use Glendening for defensive zone faceoffs, as the veteran center led Tampa Bay forwards with 18.68% of his shifts starting in the defensive zone.
The game is low-event when Glendening climbs over the boards, but he does his job effectively. That job is keeping the puck out of his net. He ranked third on the Lightning in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 at the forward position. Hopefully, with improved linemates, he can get back to controlling the pace of play better. His 36.97% expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at 5-on-5 ranked dead last on the team and at the bottom of the barrel league-wide. For now, he serves as a decent fourth-line center for his cap hit of $800,000. After all, this may be his final season in the NHL.
Right Wing: Mitchell Chaffee
The other Michigan-born player on this line is the 26-year-old Mitchell Chaffee. Following a serious knee injury that caused him to miss almost the entire 2022-23 season, the Lightning signed him for some organization depth last summer. After a solid showing with Syracuse in the American Hockey League (AHL), he became a full-time member of the Lightning halfway through the 2023-24 season. Furthermore, he even earned himself a two-year extension back in May.
Chaffee is another player who creates off the forecheck and cycle rather than the rush. The speed of Glendening plus the tenacity of Chaffee on the forecheck will disrupt opposing defenses. Chaffee wasn’t ready for a third-line role last season, but fourth-line minutes with two responsible veterans will do wonders for his game. He was on pace for roughly 20 points last season, and we expect that total to go up this season. He brings a splash of youth, along with some skill.
Expectations For the Fourth Line
The Lighting fourth line was a revolving door last season, featuring players like Cole Koepke, Waltteri Merela, Alex Barré-Boulet, and more. However, this line will be stable for the upcoming 2024-25 season. They will likely score around 50-55 points combined, a boost to the scoring depth compared to last season. They will play a game off the cycle and grind out opposing teams with sound defensive hockey. The best part is that they all make $2.45 million combined, less than other fourth-liners around the league. This trio will be hard-working and cost-effective for the Bolts this season.
