During the Toronto Maple Leafs’ home opener in 2016 against the Boston Bruins, a long-standing rivalry continued. Midway through the first period, the Maple Leafs led 1–0 thanks to an early goal from Connor Brown, but that would soon change.
Mitch Marner, playing in just his second NHL game and his first in front of the Maple Leafs faithful, broke into the offensive zone and snapped a shot past Anton Khudobin for the first goal of his career.
The broadcast then cut to his parents, Bonnie and Paul Marner, but only one of them was in their seats. His mother was nowhere to be seen. As it turned out, she was in the restroom and missed her son’s milestone moment, the first of many goals he would score in a Maple Leafs uniform.
With free agency set to kick off July 1 and a return to Toronto looking increasingly unlikely, Marner’s next chapter appears to be unfolding elsewhere. This time, his parents might still be in the stands, but watching him score in a different sweater.
Related: Golden Knights Rundown: 3 Storylines to Watch as the Draft & Free Agency Near
A player like Marner rarely hits the open market, and all teams should at least check in on his services. His 102 points this past season were the most in his career and best for fifth in the NHL.
To no surprise, one of those teams that has headlined the Marner sweepstakes is the Vegas Golden Knights. From swinging for Tomáš Hertl to signing Alex Pietrangelo, if general manager Kelly McCrimmon’s past indicates anything, they’ll be aggressive (once again).
After falling to the Edmonton Oilers in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year, serious questions need to be answered. For an organization that refuses to rebuild, Marner could be a match made in heaven.
So, here is the case for Marner: the pros, the cons, and everything else you need to know about Marner potentially heading to the Las Vegas Strip.
The 2025 Free Agency Landscape
The landscape of the NHL will be altered soon due to the increasing cap. It’s set to rise gradually throughout the next three seasons and goes as follows: $7.5 million in 2025-26, $8.5 million in the 2026-27 season, and $9.5 million in the 2027-28 season.
The rising cap will give teams the flexibility to pursue top-tier talent in free agency and fewer excuses not to spend. Nearly every team in the league is looking to improve its roster. The Chicago Blackhawks are looking to surround Connor Bedard with more talent. Joel Quenneville and the Anaheim Ducks are trying to climb out of their rebuild. It’s no secret that teams are eager to improve, and a rising cap supports that push.
The landscape of free agency could also change due to the rising cap, which means more interested parties in a player like Marner. The same goes for Sam Bennett (though he seems destined to sign back with the Florida Panthers), Nikolaj Ehlers, Brock Boeser and many more.
This free agent class does not nearly have the firepower that the 2024 class did, with it being more top-heavy. The lack of defensemen and goaltenders could make Aaron Ekblad and Vladislav Gavrikov premier options for desperate teams seeking talent. Likewise, for goaltender Jake Allen, who will more than certainly garner significant interest.
Utah Mammoth general manager Bill Armstrong often says free agency is where teams’ biggest mistakes are made, and that could be the case for several teams this offseason.
That’s where things could get fascinating. With Marner being the leader of the pack of this class, how much does he look for? How long until he chooses a team to sign with? Will his signing trigger a domino effect around the league?
These are only a few questions, but they are all fair to ask, as it’s been a while since a franchise-altering player like Marner hit the market. The last one that comes to mind is current unrestricted free agent John Tavares, who captained the New York Islanders but opted to leave Long Island and sign with the Maple Leafs.
The times are much different from then to now, but the type of situation the two players find themselves in remains the same. The Golden Knights, though, haven’t usually been big spenders in free agency, but for a player with Marner’s toolkit, that could change soon.
Mitch Marner’s Situation
Marner grew up in Markham, Ontario, roughly a 45-minute drive to downtown Toronto, assuming there’s no traffic. Like most kids in the area, he grew up a Maple Leafs fan. He idolized players like Mats Sundin and Doug Gilmour among many other stars around the league.
In what’s widely considered one of the most talented draft classes in recent history, Marner was selected fourth overall by his hometown team in 2015. It was a fitting landing spot, a highly skilled, playmaking winger joining a franchise he grew up watching as a kid.
“Everything,” Marner on what it has meant to be a Maple Leaf. “Took maybe a risky pick on a small kid from Toronto and been forever grateful to be able to wear this Maple Leaf and be a part of some of the great legends here. So, never taken a day for granted and always loved it.”
While it’s not really in question whether Marner will test the open market or not, it’s what he’ll receive when he does. How many years does he sign for, and so forth?
There are infinite possibilities that Marner could elect as the July 1 date approaches rapidly. One of those is that he will sign a short-term deal that is 2-4 years long and has an average annual value (AAV) of around $13 million (ballpark).
This possibility would maximize his earnings. Let’s say he signs a 3-4 year contract and by the age of 32, when he’s still in his prime, he would elect for an even bigger payday. This is a trend superstars around the NHL could look towards, as Marner may be the first to kick-start it.
Here’s another perspective to look at it from:
- Marner signs a long-term contract for seven years, worth around $13 million. This would equate to $91 million across those seven years and would be 35 by the time this contract ends. He likely wouldn’t be getting the payday he would if he had signed a short-term contract, which looks like this.
- Marner signs for four years at $13 million, which equates to $52 million. He would be ready for another contract at the age of 32 and would be eligible to sign another one, maximizing his earnings. In this scenario, that maximized number could be well above $50 million.
“I got pushback on the idea Marner could opt for a four-year deal — giving him another payday at age 32 — but a few teams said they’d heard about it,” Elliotte Friedman said. “Lots of twists and turns on this file over the next two weeks. Barring a sudden change in philosophy, Carolina is expected to push all chips into the pot. I’m watching Vegas, with several of their Western Conference brethren pushing hard.”
As Friedman says, Vegas could be pushing hard for Marner, which begs the question of where they stand. They don’t even have the cap space to make a blockbuster move like Marner work, or do they?
Where Does Vegas Lie?
The Golden Knights trailed 2-0 in their pivotal series against the Oilers, and it seemed Game 3 at Rogers Place would be heading to overtime. In Game 2, these two teams met and went to overtime, with the end result being a two-on-one, with Connor McDavid dishing one to Leon Draisaitl and ultimately scoring the game-winner.
With less than 10 seconds remaining, William Karlsson did the dirty work in the corner, won a puck battle around multiple Oilers, and sent a feed to Reilly Smith. The original misfit deked past McDavid and company and scored with 0.4 seconds remaining.
Surely, this would give the team life as they looked to claw back into the series. In the end, that goal by Smith was the Golden Knights’ last of the series, as Stuart Skinner earned back-to-back shutouts in Games 4 and 5.
In short, that’s where Vegas lies. They’re slowly falling behind the league’s best and plunging quicker and quicker from the team that won the Stanley Cup in 2023.
During those same playoffs, the team averaged 2.45 goals per game, a drastic fall from their elite regular season, when they averaged 3.34. Pavel Dorofeyev, who led the team in goals with 35 during the regular season, scored an underwhelming one goal during eight games of action. Dorofeyev is just an example of several other players who underperformed in the playoffs.
Does that mean blowing up the entire roster because of a bad postseason run? No, not necessarily, but it’s good not to get into the habit of being complacent. That’s where teams amount to no success because nothing changes if nothing changes.
That’s where Manrer comes in. While yes, he has had his ups and downs in the postseason with Toronto, but he’s a player that rarely, if ever, hits the open market.
Marner’s skillset speaks for itself, and having a combination of Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, and company would make for an elite top-six. However, cap space spells an issue for McCrimmon and company.
Marner will likely be the league’s highest-paid player after this next contract (until McDavid signs, as Matthew Tkachuk put it best, “wherever it is”). One possibility that has been alluded to in several of my past articles is Alex Pietrangelo going on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) and possibly hanging up his skates.
“Every year, I hear, ‘Oh, Pietrangelo is so badly beaten up, and he’s put his body through so much, and he’s not going to be able to play next season,'” Friedman said. “And every year I get told, ‘That’s wrong.’ And every year, he’s back, and he plays, and he plays hard, and he plays great.”
Pietrangelo’s future remains in question either way, and his $8.8 million cap hit could be off the books, which will be determined sometime this offseason. Another possibility is simply shedding cap room—players like Ivan Barbashev, Karlsson, Hertl, and more.
While those players could be dealt, we have no way of knowing until the ink is dry and the deal is done. With that being the case right now, expect one of those possibilities to happen, especially with the strong desire the Golden Knights are showing in Marner and Marner in the Golden Knights.
The Pitch to Marner
Seth Godin, the New York Times bestselling author known for his takes on creativity and marketing, dropped a line in You Can’t Be Seen Until You Learn to See that’s become a mantra for salespeople everywhere: “Don’t find customers for your products; find products for your customers.”
That’s exactly the approach McCrimmon should take with Marner — not simply selling a player but presenting a tailored solution for what Vegas truly needs.
It’s a good time to mention that Marner wouldn’t solve all of Vegas’ problems. You won’t see him become the Shohei Ohtani of the NHL suiting up in net one period and on the wing for the other, but he does present a variety of talents that the Golden Knights have lacked.
Ever since Jonathan Marchessault’s departure, the team’s wings have grown short. Stone has and likely will continue to play at a high level, as he did during his time in Vegas. Beyond Stone, however, things get thin.
Dorofeyev was a pleasant surprise during the regular season, and Barbashev has been okay during his time in Sin City, but it has not been breathtaking by any standard.
This would, of course, be a part of Marner’s pitch. ‘Hey, look at what you can do with this lineup and the results that will follow,’ could be something McCrimmon says. While Vegas has become a hotspot destination for players, I’m not sure anything will top the drama, pressure, and weight surrounding Toronto, which is a big bonus since Vegas isn’t Toronto.
While the weather right now in Vegas or anywhere in the desert southwest is not ideal, with temperatures soaring well over 110 degrees, in the winter, 50-degree weather, you simply can’t complain.
That’s more of a joke, but the pitch to Marner is there. Assuming they create the cap space, they’ll have the money and, most importantly, the culture to do so. He is one of many fascinating offseason hurdles many teams will look to jump, as the market doesn’t often get a player like him.
The Bottom Line
The bottom line is quite simple: Vegas doesn’t need Marner but could jump several of their peers in the Western Conference if they did, something that doesn’t look likely if they don’t snag him. There are several bridges to cross before July 1, with the 2025 NHL Draft taking place later this week on June 27 and 28, moves are expected to come from all 32 teams with the rumor mill spinning fast. We’ll see how this ends up winding down, but it will be a fun offseason. Vegas needs more; the question is, will that ‘more’ be Marner? We shall see soon.
