There are mixed messages coming out of Toronto where some insiders believe the fact William Nylander has not yet signed an extension is problematic. Meanwhile, Chris Johnston recently reported that there’s no need to worry he puts the odds of a Nylander deal getting done at around 90%.
Which is it?
Recently, Sheldon Keefe said on the play of Nylander this season: “His confidence is at an all-time high…. It’s gotten to a point now where he’s starting to really separate himself from a lot of others in the league.” Such a statement seems to suggest that he’s going to be expensive to keep and that with every game he plays, he’s getting closer and closer to being worth what he’s probably asking for. But, Johnston seems confident that Nylander doesn’t want to go anywhere else and that the Leafs aren’t worried about the money.
The truth has to lie somewhere in between.
It’s Fair to Assume Nylander Wants to Stay
Throughout this entire negotiation process, the same thing keeps surfacing: Nylander has no desire to play anywhere else. The player has said he’d like to stay. The organization has noted they’d like to keep him. It’s a matter of finding the right middle ground and a contract that makes sense. Fair enough.
Nylander has it good in Toronto. He’s got Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and other skilled players to play with. He’s on a team — that despite a lack of playoff success — is considered a contender every year and likes to play his run-and-gun style. He’s in a market that loves him, he’s got a bright light shining on his play, and he’s about to become a very rich man, even if the Leafs ultimately pay him less than he could get on the open market.
It makes sense that Johnston would say, “I just think if you have a player who wants to be here, and the team really really wants to sign him, I think ultimately cooler heads will prevail and he will be a Leaf.”
Business is Business of Nylander
But, for Johnston to put it at 90%? That’s a stretch. If this contract was that easy to do, it would have been done by now. Even Johnston himself somewhat contradicts his own theory when he notes, “Here’s the dirty secret of that negotiation in my opinion; the Leafs know he doesn’t want to play anywhere else.” This doesn’t mean he won’t.
Yes, it is true that the Leafs are the only team that can sign him to an eight-year deal. What isn’t true is that the Leafs can match any offer that comes Nylander’s way. At least, not without major roster sacrifices. The total may be the same by the time his seven years in another city are up and his eight years in Toronto are, but there are tax-free or lower-tax cities to consider. There’s the idea of another contract at the age of 34. Mostly, there’s the fact that the Leafs are jerking his chain a bit.
Just look at what happens when a player is made to wait because the organization thinks they have all of the leverage and starts to take advantage of a player’s loyalty to a franchise. Steven Stamkos anyone? Would you honestly watch his presser and think there’s a 90% chance he signs in Tampa Bay this summer? The situations are different, but not that much.
The More Nylander Plays Well, the Trickier This Gets
Like Keefe said, Nylander is starting to separate himself from the pack with his play. That’s only going to draw more attention to him from other NHL clubs. If he isn’t signed by the Leafs because Toronto feels like they have all the time in the world, their assumption he won’t leave Toronto could come back to bite them.
If Nylander can make more elsewhere, if he can go to a team that wasn’t trying to call his bluff, and he can be a star on a roster where he’s recognized as such, you have to think that would be an attractive option. This is especially true if the Leafs look like partial contenders this season.
None of this is to say that Nylander won’t ultimately work things out with Toronto. But, to assume the Leafs know a “dirty secret” and that Nylander staying is a given, that’s just playing with fire.
