The Washington Capitals have been a puzzle for most of the 2025-26 season, but as we reach the quarter-way mark, they seem to be trending in the right direction. American Thanksgiving has traditionally been the time to assess a team’s likelihood of making the playoffs. For the 13-9-2 Capitals, who currently sit third in the tightly packed Metropolitan Division, a return to postseason play should be possible.
The Capitals started the season strong with six wins in their first eight games. A 7-1 loss on Oct. 25 to the Ottawa Senators began a four-game losing streak. Washington soundly defeated the St. Louis Blues 6-1 on Nov. 5 and then went 3-4-0 in their next seven games. In their last four games, the Capitals picked up decisive wins against the Montreal Canadiens (8-4 on Nov. 20) and Columbus Blue Jackets (5-1 on Nov. 24), a 4-3 win against the Winnipeg Jets on Nov. 26, while suffering a tightly-contested loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning (5-3 on Nov. 22).
October was a strange month for the Capitals. They led the league for several weeks in fewest goals allowed while trailing near the bottom in goals-for. Goaltender Logan Thompson topped the NHL in several statistical categories, but couldn’t get support from his offense. The Capitals dominated possession at five-on-five, but had one of the worst power plays in the league. To cap off the month, in a Halloween game against the New York Islanders, second-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois suffered an abdominal injury that will keep him out of the lineup for the next few months.
Capitals’ Special Teams Struggles
In their season-opening loss to the Boston Bruins, the Capitals went 0-5 on the power play, setting the tone for the first quarter of the season. The power play is firing at just over 15%, ranked 27th in the NHL. In 2024-25, they finished 13th, scoring at a 23.5% rate. Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s all-time leading scorer in power-play goals (327), has scored only one goal on the man-advantage this season, despite playing on both the first and second units for most games.
Despite scoring two power-play goals against the Canadiens on Nov. 20, the Capitals have been awful on the man-advantage. In a 5-3 loss to the Lightning on Nov. 22, the Capitals went 0-6 on the power play.
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“We’re not making plays,” Tom Wilson said. “We’re not making simple plays. We’re not moving. It’s a little bit too predictable, probably. At the end of the day, it comes down to us, all 10 guys. You’ve just got to make better plays. When you have the puck, you’ve got to get it to the next guy’s tape. Can’t pass on the problem. And all of us seem to just kind of be throwing it around right now. Just got to play with a little more confidence and find a way to put them in the back of the net. I mean, it’s costing us games. So it’s not good enough, obviously.”
The penalty kill has also been struggling, with a kill rate of 72.7% – the ninth-worst in the NHL. In the 2024-25 season, the Capitals killed nearly 10% more of their penalties. They’ve allowed more than one power-play goal in four games this season, including three in games against the Senators and Pittsburgh Penguins.
Capitals’ Strong Defensive Efforts
Despite a shaky start, the Capitals have been a strong defensive team – at least at even strength. They rank eighth in the NHL with 64 goals allowed. They’ve allowed on average 3.33 goals per game, ranked sixth in the league. At five-on-five, they are third in goals allowed.
The Capitals have done a great job balancing offensive-minded defensemen with more shut-down types. Martin Fehervary has again shown speed, tenacity, and physicality, allowing partner John Carlson to get up in the play and activate from the blue line. Matt Roy has done the same for his partner, Jakob Chychrun. With many of the forwards slumping offensively, Carlson and Chychrun are tied for second on the team in scoring, with 22 points each.
Last season, the second line, centered by Dubois, was highly effective at shutting down the opposition’s top scorers. With Dubois out of the lineup, head coach Spencer Carbery has had a hard time finding a replacement. Only recently has rookie Justin Sourdif found success on the line centering Aleksei Protas and Wilson, using his speed and high compete level to drive play.
Thompson led the league for several weeks in goals-against average and save percentage, making a strong case for why he should be included on Canada’s Olympic roster. Although he has returned to earth of late, slipping out of the top ten in most statistical categories. Thompson and his goaltending partner, Charlie Lindgren, have combined for the seventh-best tandem in the league.
Capitals Lack Scoring Consistency
Wilson leads the team with 23 points, followed by Carlson, Chychrun, and Ovechkin with 22 each. Protas, Dylan Strome, and Connor McMichael are all under-performing in the scoring department, and every forward’s shooting percentage (except Wilson’s) has dropped significantly from last season.
The Capitals have gotten chances, but are struggling to finish. At five-on-five, they’ve been near the top of the league in expected-goals percentage, shot attempt percentage, and number of high-danger chances. Still, the team is 6-1-0 in their last seven games, and their offensive numbers are trending up.
Ovechkin has started to heat up again, and Protas, Strome, and McMichael are showing signs of resurgence. Ryan Leonard is tied for fifth with all NHL rookies in scoring. Sonny Milano, who was often scratched earlier in the season, has slid back into the bottom-six where he’s provided some offensive spark. The only player who continues to struggle at an alarming rate is Hendrix Lapierre, who has yet to score a goal and who has been stapled to the bench often this season.
Capitals Projections and Predictions
Even when they were slumping, the Capitals’ underlying numbers, especially at five-on-five, have been good. If they can figure out special teams, they will challenge for the Metropolitan Division title again.
If the Capitals can manage to reach the playoffs while healthy, with Dubois returning to lock down the second line, they’ll be dangerous, but an injury to any key player, especially a player with speed, could be their undoing. Last season, Fehervary’s absence was very noticeable in the Capitals’ second-round series against the Carolina Hurricanes.
The goals are starting to come, and shooting percentages are starting to rise. Protas and McMichael’s numbers from last season will likely be difficult to replicate, but they are at least trending up. With Nic Dowd currently injured and Lapierre struggling, the Capitals need to find some consistency in the bottom six. Sourdif has earned his coach’s trust, and once Dubois returns, look for him to lock down the third line. The Capitals seem to have weathered a tough start, but optimism has returned to the nation’s capital.
