The Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche begin their first-round series on Sunday, April 21 in Winnipeg. It’s the first time the teams have met in the postseason, and it should be a highly-entertaining and competitive series. Neither side has a clear advantage as they finished within three points of each other (the Jets with 110 and the Avalanche with 107) in the Central Division.
Hockey is a team game, but if the Jets want to advance to the second round for the first time since 2021 and the third time in 2.0 history, there are at least three players who will be key.
3: Mark Scheifele
Teams need their top players to thrive under the brightest lights, and Mark Scheifele is that top player up front. The alternate captain and first-line centre led the Jets in points this season with 72 (25 goals, 47 assists) in 74 games; it was the second time he led his team in points in his 13-season career.
Scheifele recommitted himself to giving defensive effort this season under head coach Rick Bowness and while his goal total was down from the career-high 42 he potted last season, he was still a consistent offensive threat. The keys for Scheifele are twofold: one is to be strong enough defensively on the same line with Kyle Connor — a pairing that historically gives up more chances than it generates at five on five and struggled through last month’s season-high six-game losing streak — to post at least 50/50 possession numbers. The other is to pick his spots to shoot despite being an admitted “pass-first” guy.
Personally, Scheifele will look to have his first good playoffs in his past three. Last spring, he was injured early in Game 4 against the Vegas Golden Knights and missed Game 5 when the Jets were eliminated, ending with just one goal. In 2021, he was suspended for four games for charging Jake Evans in Game 1 of the second-round series against the Montreal Canadiens and sat the rest of the way as his team was swept.
If he could turn on the “beast mode” he displayed during the 2018 run to the Western Conference Final, when he piled up 14 goals and added six assists for 20 points in 17 games, it’d go a long way to a series win.
2: Gabriel Vilardi
The Jets enter the series at a disadvantage at special teams. The Avalanche, led by led by Nathan MacKinnon (140 points,) Mikko Rantanen (104 points,) and Cale Makar (90 points) had the league’s fifth-ranked power play and operated at a 24.5 per cent clip this season. The Jets had the league’s 22nd-ranked power play and operated at a 77.27 per cent clip.
For long stretches this season, the Jets simply weren’t very good on the man advantage and looked pass-happy and predictable. However, their fortunes when up a man were a lot better when Gabriel Vilardi, who can be a bit of a “power play cheat code,” was parked in front of the blue paint.
While the Jets aren’t a team that cuts ruts to the sin bin, the Avalanche are going to convert on the power play at some point. If the Jets want to keep pace in the special-teams battle, Vilardi will play a big part.
The 24-year-old has exceptional net-front skills and and ability to “stick handle in a phone booth,” as captain Adam Lowry put it recently. He dazzled from in tight with regularity this season. (From ‘Up close: an in-depth look at Gabe Vilardi’s goalscoring exploits,’ Winnipeg Free Press, April 5, 2024.)
Nearly every one of Vilardi’s 22 tallies in his first season as Jet came from directly in front of the net, as his shot chart shows. Despite missing 35 games this season with various injuries and an enlarged spleen, he led the team in power-play goals with nine. Some were utterly ridiculous, such as the one above.
The influence of special-teams play can loom even larger in the playoffs, given the small sample size of games. Sometimes, special teams are simply the difference and strong five-on-five play isn’t enough to win a game. While the Jets’ power play trended in the right direction toward the end of the season with seven goals in their final 10 games, Vilardi’s creativity and puck skills on the top unit could be a game-breaker.
1: Connor Hellebuyck
The Jets’ success starts from the crease out, and this series will be no different.
Goaltending often takes centre stage in the playoffs and a big save or two at a key moment can mean the difference between a win or loss and thus turn the tide in a relatively-short series. There’s no doubt the Jets have the guy who can make those.
Connor Hellebuyck should be a shoo-in for the 2024 Vezina Trophy after an outstanding season. The 31-year-old — who led the team to the first William M. Jennings Trophy in franchise history, which awarded to the squad that allows the fewest goals in the league — made 60 starts, winning 37 of them, and posting a 2.39 goals against average (GAA), .921 save percentage (SV%), five shutouts, and 40 quality starts.
Related: Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck Deserves 2024 Vezina Trophy
His GAA was second-best among goalies who made 50-plus starts, his SV% was the best among those, his shutouts tied him for second league wide, and his 40 quality starts were most in the league. His 33.1 goals saved above expected was best in the league by far as was his 5.52 wins above replacement.
As he showed again this season and throughout his career, Hellebuyck can steal a game and his composed, “big-and-boring” play style will serve him well on the big stage against the Avalanche’s league-leading offensive attack. Hellebuyck started all three games of the season series against the Avs, winning all of them, allowing just four goals, and posting one shutout.
This is still going to be a difficult series for the Jets, but goaltending is where they have the biggest advantage on paper, especially since Hellebuyck’s playoff numbers are right in line with his regular-season numbers over his nine-season career. Avs starter Alexandar Georgiev struggled at times this season, and despite capturing an NHL-high 38 wins, has a 3.02 GAA and .897 SV%. He allowed 24 goals in his final five starts of the season and is perhaps their biggest question mark; backup Justus Annunen is inexperienced, with just 17 starts and no playoff appearances, so it’s likely Georgiev’s crease for better or for worse.
If Hellebuyck plays like he did during the regular season the playoffs, the Jets will have a good chance of advancing.
