On Canadian Thanksgiving (Oct. 10), the Winnipeg Jets made a major splash. Both Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele signed matching seven-year contracts worth $8.5 million in average annual value (AAV).
Related: Jets Re-Sign Hellebuyck and Scheifele To Seven-Year Extensions
One of the biggest storylines in Jets 2.0 history has now been put behind the organization as they shift their focus to the upcoming season. Here are a few short-term and long-term takeaways from the deals.
The Jets are Getting Surplus Value on Connor Hellebuyck’s Deal
Goaltenders are under-valued by the open market, but it still seems as if signing Hellebuyck to an AAV of $8.5 million is an incredible value for the short term. In 2022-23, Hellebuyck posted a .920 save percentage (SV%), 2.49 goals against average (GAA), and a 37-25-2 record.
According to Money Puck, he finished fourth in the NHL in goals saved above expected (GSAx) with 30.8. That trailed only Linus Ullmark, Ilya Sorokin, and Juuse Saros. Hellebuyck has been among the league leaders in GSAx for multiple years now, and he has shown zero signs of slowing down. The Jets will get surplus value on this contract for at least the first three to four years.
Hellebuyck is in the midst of his prime, and this deal gives him long-term security in Winnipeg as their top goaltender. He will be among the franchise’s greatest players when his career is over, and this deal will keep him as a Jet for the entirety of it.
The style of goaltending he plays makes him a prime candidate to have a long career. He plays a quiet and ultra-positional style that doesn’t require much movement for a goaltender his size. At 6-foot-4, 216 pounds, he often has his opponents beat on angles and positioning. That is something that will last for his entire career, and should prevent a steep fall-off in production near the end of the contract.
Mark Scheifele Contract is Fair Market Value
Scheifele was given the exact same contract in terms of years and AAV, coming in at $8.5 million a season. For Scheifele, who is fresh off of a 42-goal campaign, this is a pay raise from his previous contract and also gives him long-term stability in Winnipeg.
Fans have become worrisome of Scheifele’s defensive game, but the truth is, someone has to score goals for the foreseeable future. Having Scheifele be the top-line centre for the next year or two years, and then a middle-six centre after that, is not the worst plan when it comes to roster construction. Does he struggle in his own end? Yes, but that comes with a 70+ point player who on average nets 30+ goals per season. I see this contract as fair market value for Scheifele.
This contract may not age well, but when we get to the third takeaway of the piece, you will see why I don’t think that matters all too much. We just saw it with Blake Wheeler, as he was set to play out another year of his $8.25 million AAV deal before the Jets bought him out, and he signed with the New York Rangers for near league-minumum. This is the modern NHL, where teams don’t worry about seven years from now and they are willing to go long-term in order to lower the AAV of the contract.
Another interesting factor is the fact that the Salary Cap is expected to jump in the next couple of years, which could make these deals much easier against the cap than they currently are. The percentage of salary cap that they are taking up will go down as the contracts move along, and that should make them easier to build a contending team around.
A New Stanley Cup Contention Window Begins Now
This move opens up a new stanley cup contention window. With their previous pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) status, this was a major question mark heading into the season. Now with a plethora of forward prospects waiting to crack the NHL roster, this gives the Jets organization stability as a contender when it comes to the next 3-4 years.
Could they package a few of those prospects for “win-now” players, and go all-in at some point over the next couple of years? That is definitely in the cards, and could be the decision if the Jets are among the leaders in the Western Conference near the trade deadline.
Regardless, this gives the Jets the opportunity to remain a fringe playoff team year-after-year, and potentially make a huge splash to make a deep playoff run for one of the upcoming seasons. However, there are more pressing things to account for, including the Jets season opener on Wednesday, Oct. 11 against the Calgary Flames, before the Jets return home for a three-game home stand.
