As the NHL season nears, the New York Islanders are entering a pivotal point in the franchise’s existence. The roster is mostly the same as last year, yet there are expectations of surpassing last season’s Round 1 exit. As a result of this stagnant roster construction, forward Kyle MacLean and defenseman Samuel Bolduc appear to be boxed out of the lineup despite being deserving of full-time opportunities.
MacLean Deserves a Shot
MacLean’s situation is better than Bolduc’s since he has a shot at earning ice time, even if inconsistently. MacLean is a 25-year-old, left-handed forward who can play both center and left wing. He scored four goals and nine points in 32 NHL regular season games last season, as well as a goal in five playoff games. He brought speed and energy the Islanders lacked, especially in the bottom six, and his physicality was a valuable asset.
While MacLean had valuable point production in his limited role, that is not what makes him deserving of a full-time role in the bottom six. Last season he led all Islanders in goals percentage (G%) with 64.7%, according to MoneyPuck. When he was on the ice, good things happened, and while his expected goals percentage (xG%) was just 48.7%, he still led most other bottom-six options in Hudson Fasching (43.2%), Casey Cizikas (37%), Simon Holmstrom (36.9%), and Oliver Wahlstrom (44.8%) in the category. This is not to say MacLean is better than all of them, but given the team’s struggles in the bottom six, going with the player who brought the most positive results seems like a no-brainer, at least to start the season.
First NHL goal for Kyle MacLean! 🚨
— NHL (@NHL) February 6, 2024
📺: @Sportsnet or stream on Sportsnet+ ➡️ https://t.co/sEijvXhbA1 pic.twitter.com/CKgemJqGNa
The main hurdle preventing MacLean from joining the Islanders’ lineup full-time is the abundance of left-handed forwards on the roster, especially in the bottom six. Assuming Anthony Duclair plays in the top six, the Islanders will have Anders Lee, Pierre Engvall, Maxim Tsyplakov, and Holmstrom fighting for three spots on the left wing. While Engvall, Tsyplakov, and Holmstrom can each play the right side, it is unlikely we see a bottom-six consisting of five left-handed forwards.
Bolduc Has No Spot in the Lineup
Bolduc, 23, was a 2019 second-round pick by the Islanders and has struggled to earn a spot in the lineup due to a surplus of left-handed defensemen and his basic skill set. He is a defensive defenseman with a powerful slapshot, something the Islanders already have in Alexander Romanov, Adam Pelech, and Scott Mayfield.
While Bolduc is not deserving of a top-four role yet, he should, but will not, be granted a role on the third pair for a few reasons. Just like MacLean, Bolduc has better analytics than most defense on the Islanders. He finished with a higher G% than Pelech and Mayfield last season and a higher xG% than Pulock, Romanov, Pelech, and Mayfield. The main problem is that the Islanders would never, and shouldn’t, scratch a player like Pelech to make room for Bolduc.
Considering the top four is set in stone, the only path for Bolduc to break into the lineup is on the third pair, and the player he has to surpass, Mike Reilly, seems to be the only defenseman who has found success alongside Mayfield. Together the two finished with a 47.1 G% and 49.7 xG%, the highest of any of Mayfield’s defensive pairings last season. When Bolduc and Mayfield were together, they had a 20.0 G% and 43.3 xG% in just over 110 minutes. Individually, Reilly was one of the best Islanders defensemen last season, finishing second in G% (53.8%) and first in xG% (55.7%).
The Islanders should play Bolduc and Reilly alongside one another, scratching Mayfield, but it will never happen. Mayfield’s seven-year contract makes him nearly impossible to move, so the team will likely keep trying to make it work, even if it means putting out a weaker lineup each game.
The Islanders are uniquely situated due to the team’s salary and roster structure, paving the way for the 2024-25 season to be a bumpy one. The team is hopeful to build on last season and contend for a Stanley Cup, and while they believe they have the roster to do it, decisions regarding the team’s depth could sneakily prove detrimental down the road.
