With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs set to begin, it’s time to look at the first-round matchups. The Carolina Hurricanes finished the regular season by narrowly clinching the Metropolitan Division over the New Jersey Devils. The Hurricanes finished the season with a 52-21-9 record to finish second overall in the NHL standings. However, their opponent, the New York Islanders, battled all season long to clinch their return to postseason action. After missing the playoffs last season, the Islanders claimed this year’s top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference in the final days of the regular season.
The Hurricanes come in as heavy favorites, but they shouldn’t sleep on an Islanders team who could be the dark horse contender in the East. So let’s dive into the matchup and see what we can expect from the first-round series between the two divisional foes.
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Season Series
The Hurricanes won the season series against the Islanders, winning three of the four meetings between the two clubs. Throughout the four regular season contests, the Hurricanes outscored the Islanders 12-9 and outshot them 125-101.
In the season’s first meeting, the Islanders won handily by a score of 6-2. Brock Nelson scored his first two goals, and Mathew Barzal notched two assists to lead the Islanders to their lone victory over the Hurricanes. Ilya Sorokin turned away 33 of the Hurricanes’ 35 shots in the win. Frederik Andersen started in goal for Carolina and allowed five goals on 31 shots. After the game, Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’amour said, “But their team game, I think they played their best game in the [five] years I’ve been [coaching] against them. By far the best game they’ve played.”
The second clash between the two clubs saw the Hurricanes blank the Islanders 3-0. Pyotr Kochetkov posted the shutout for the Canes although he only faced 16 shots in the contest. Carolina got goals from Jesper Kotkaniemi, Paul Stastny and captain Jordan Staal. Sorokin once again was in the net for the Islanders and stopped 26 of the Hurricanes’ 29 shots.
The two teams met again on Jan. 21, and the Hurricanes won by a score of 5-2. They finished the first period deadlocked at two. Hurricanes forward Sebastian Aho then took over the game and scored a natural hat trick, potting the game’s final three goals en route to the 5-2 win. Andersen started between the pipes for Carolina, while Sorokin again started for the Islanders. Despite coming away with the victory, the Hurricanes were outshot by the Islanders in the contest 31-25.
Most recently, the Islanders visited the Hurricanes in April and came up short in a 2-1 loss on the road. The Islanders struck first in the game, with Jean-Gabriel Pageau scoring in the first period. The Hurricanes answered and tied the game in the second period on a goal by Kotkaniemi, and Jordan Martinook scored the eventual game-winner early in the third period. Sorokin had a strong showing in the Islanders’ net, stopping 33 of 35 shots, while Andersen again picked up the victory for the Hurricanes.
Key Players For The Islanders
This series has low-scoring written all over it. However, with that being said, the Islanders will need some of their forwards to step up if they hope to upset the Hurricanes. While battling to clinch a wild card position, Nelson played strong to help lead the Islanders to some key victories. It is also positive news that the Islanders will be nearly at full health as they begin the postseason.
Their offensive leader, Barzal, will return to action for Game 1 after being sidelined with a lower-body injury on Feb. 18. He led the Islanders with 14 goals and 37 assists for 51 points before suffering the injury setback. His return will be a crucial factor for the Islanders, who, at times, have struggled to find the back of the net this season. In 17 career games against the Hurricanes, he has two goals and eight assists for 10 points.
The Islanders’ most significant trade acquisition Bo Horvat, will benefit from Barzal’s return. He seemed to find chemistry quickly while playing on Barzal’s line following the trade. He had scored three goals and one assist in the six games before Barzal’s injury. In the 25 games that followed, he scored just four goals while adding eight assists, although he did come up big down the stretch with one goal and four assists over the last four games of the regular season.
Related: Islanders Are The Eastern Conference’s Dark Horse Contender
The Islanders will also need some unsung heroes to pull through if they hope to complete an upset. Players such as veteran forward Zach Parise, Pierre Engvall, and Kyle Palmieri will need strong performances. Parise proved that he remains a valuable piece of the roster during the season by hitting the 20-goal mark for the 11th time in his career. Having played in a Stanley Cup Final before, Parise also provides some veteran leadership that can be leaned on in the playoffs. In 42 career games against the Hurricanes, he has compiled 20 goals and 14 assists for 34 points. He has also performed respectively in 12 playoff games against Carolina with three goals and five assists.
Key Hurricanes Players To Watch
The Hurricanes’ offence took a significant hit when Andrei Svechnikov’s season ended abruptly due to a knee injury. Aho led the team with 36 goals, followed by Martin Necas, who scored 28. After those two, there is a significant drop-off as defenceman Brent Burns ranks third with 18 goals. They will need some depth forwards to take some of the offensive workload off of Aho’s shoulders.
Teuvo Teravainen is a prime example of a player who needs to step up their game during the playoffs. He missed time this season due to injury, and in 68 games played, he scored 12 goals and 25 assists for 37 points. Unfortunately, his offensive production has fallen off this season after producing nearly at a point-per-game rate over the past four seasons. The good news for Carolina is that he has typically performed well come playoff time and has 16 goals and 16 assists for 32 points in 48 playoff games with the Hurricanes.
After an impressive rookie campaign, Seth Jarvis posted a similar stat line during his sophomore season with 14 goals and 25 assists in 82 games. He can also be a player that provides offensive support for the club during the postseason. He had a decent showing while getting his first taste of playoff hockey last year, with three goals and five assists in 14 games.
Goaltending Matchup
The Islanders have one of the top tandems in the league with Sorokin and veteran backup Semyon Varlamov. This season Sorokin carried the Islanders with his elite level of play. He should very much be a Vezina Trophy finalist. In addition, he should garner attention for the Hart Trophy in recognition of what he’s done for the Islanders with them making the playoffs. The Russian goaltender will be the key to this series if he can steal a game early for the Islanders; there is no reason to believe they can’t pull off the upset. He has played just six career games against the Hurricanes, posting a 2.88 goals-against average (GAA) and a .908 save percentage (SV%).
Varlamov provides a solid backup option for head coach Lane Lambert if the younger Sorokin falters. In 13 career games against the Hurricanes, he has slightly better numbers than Sorokin, with a 2.35 GAA and a .925 SV%. He also has plenty of playoff experience appearing in 60 games and posting a 2.42 GAA and a .919 SV%.
In the Hurricanes’ net, Andersen is healthy again after struggling with injuries over the past few seasons. Through 34 games played, he posted a 24-11-1 record with a 2.48 GAA and a .903 SV%. Over his career against the Islanders, he has a 2.78 GAA and a .904 SV% while posting a 10-4-1 record.
Matchup By The Numbers
The Hurricanes fire a lot of shots on the net, ranking third in the league while averaging 34.8 shots per game. The high volume of shots generated gives them a lower shooting percentage (9.2%) than the Islanders, who cashed in on 9.6% of their shots. When looking at goals scored, the Hurricanes averaged 3.2 goals per game (ranked 15th), compared to the Islanders’ 2.95 (ranked 22nd). While winning 52.9% of their faceoffs, the Hurricanes were near the top of the league, ranked fifth in the category. The Islanders are slightly less proficient in the faceoff circle, winning 51.7% of their draws, which ranked 10th during the regular season.
Defensively, both team rank amongst the top tier of the league, with the Hurricanes ranking second while allowing 2.56 goals per game. The Islanders’ defence ranked fifth, allowing an average of 2.65 goals per game. Both teams have strong penalty-killing units; however, the Hurricanes once again have the edge in that category, ranking second at 84.4% compared to the Islanders’ ninth-ranked penalty kill.
In one of the most critical aspects of playoff hockey, physicality, the Islanders have a massive advantage in the hitting department. Led by Matt Martin with 295 hits, the Islanders totaled 2,139 hits during the regular season. The Hurricanes had 1,351 hits as a team, with Staal leading the way with 155. Five of the Islanders’ defencemen also each accumulated over 100 shot blocks this season. As a team, they blocked a total of 1,323 shots. The Hurricanes only had two players, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesche, who registered over 100 blocks. As a result, they totaled only 834 shot blocks throughout the season, although they also allowed the fewest shots per game (26).
Series Outlook
With both teams being stout defensively, you can expect a low-scoring series that features plenty of one-goal games, with some overtime games not being out of the question. However, the most significant factor in the series lies between the pipes; as mentioned above, Sorokin can carry the Islanders and even steal a game or two.
The Hurricanes will feel the loss of Svechnikov, who failed to fill the hole left in the lineup at the trade deadline this year. However, looking at all the series in the Eastern Conference, this matchup favours the underdog, as the Islanders are a team built for playoff success. Their punishing style will wear down the Hurricanes’ defence over a lengthy series, and their willingness to sacrifice their bodies by blocking shots is another huge asset in playoff hockey.
While the Hurricanes have become one of the top teams in the league and perennial contenders, there’s a reason the Islanders have made two appearances in the Eastern Conference Final over the past few years. The lack of physical presence in the Hurricanes’ lineup can be seen as one of the reasons for their recent playoff exits.
Anyone sleeping on this Islanders team who had to fight so hard to get into the playoffs should think again, as this series will be a hard-fought battle to the bitter end. Don’t be surprised to see this one go seven games and for the Islanders to pull off one of the biggest first-round upsets this season.
