The Colorado Avalanche hit the 11-game mark of the 2023-24 season with a wild 6-3 win against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday (Nov. 7). They currently own a record of 8-3-0 (16 points) to rank first in the Central Division and are tied for third in the Western Conference in points percentage (PTS%).
It’s a marked improvement on the team’s record after 11 games last season, which was a middling 6-4-1. The Avalanche went 45-20-6 the rest of the way to win the Central by a single point, but fans and analysts alike shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that it’s a very long season. Even the best of teams will experience peaks and valleys of on-ice success, so the Avalanche have done themselves a favor by banking a few early points in the standings.
Moving into November gives us a growing (but limited) sample of games with which to evaluate the team and its players, but that won’t stop me from highlighting three Avalanche players meeting or outperforming projections this season. Here’s a look.
Mikko Rantanen, Forward
It’s difficult for a player to set pre-season expectations any higher after a 55-goal, 105-point campaign as Avalanche sharpshooter Mikko Rantanen accomplished in 2022-23. He managed to improve on his impressive regular-season exploits by potting seven goals and 10 points in seven playoff games, even as the Avalanche were upset in the first round by the Seattle Kraken.
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Fortunately, the 27-year-old Rantanen has followed up the best goal-scoring season since the organization moved to Colorado (ahead of the 1995-96 campaign) with another run of elite production. He’s scored six goals and 14 points in 10 games, which represents an 82-game pace of 49 goals, 66 assists, and 115 points, the latter two of which would mark new career highs for the power forward.
It’s always important to look at the underlying numbers to add context and see if the process matches up with the results. Rantanen is generating the highest rate of scoring chances (iSCF/60) and the second-highest rate of shots (SH/60) at five-on-five of his career. He’s also drawing penalties at a career-best clip of 1.81 per 60 minutes.
Rantanen’s shot- and chance-generation on the power play are following the same upward trends as his even-strength numbers, so it’s no surprise to see him running at or near career-best scoring rates across all situations.
At this pace, expect his end-of-year totals to reach new heights. When you’re one of five players in franchise history (Avalanche/Quebec Nordiques) to tally 50 goals in a single season, nothing less will satisfy fans accustomed to eye-popping box score totals.
Logan O’Connor, Forward
Whenever a player sets or ties a franchise record, it’s a good sign that they are at least meeting whatever expectations have been set for them before the season. To start, Avalanche utility forward Logan O’Connor has been one of the NHL’s most dangerous shorthanded threats this season.
The 27-year-old made waves in October by scoring a shorthanded goal in three consecutive games, becoming the second player in franchise history to accomplish the feat since Joe Sakic in 1998-99. O’Connor hasn’t scored in six games but still leads the NHL in shorthanded goals and points (both three).
O’Connor’s aggressiveness is a significant reason why the Avalanche’s penalty kill ranks fourth in the NHL with an 89.1% success rate. He sits 17th among qualified forwards (at least 15 total minutes on the penalty kill) in average shorthanded ice time (2:44 minutes per game). He’s also generating shots, chances, and high-danger chances at top-20 rates among qualified forwards on the penalty kill.
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Turning the tables on opposing power-play units with what’s been called the power-kill in analytical circles is all the rage these days, and O’Connor is one of the most effective skaters at carrying out this strategy to great success.
O’Connor, Andrew Cogliano, and newcomer Fredrik Olofsson have also formed what is one of the NHL’s best bottom-six lines this season and helped the Avalanche dominate play at five-on-five when its superstars are off the ice. Of the 92 lines to have played at least 30 minutes together this season, the Avalanche trio ranks 20th in shot-share (SF%) and 36th in expected goals (xGF%) while maintaining an even split in actual goals.
O’Connor has found a way to make himself useful in almost every situation, and there are many worse ways for a team to spend $1.05 million against the cap this season and the next.
Artturi Lehkonen, Forward
Once one of the league’s most underrated two-way wingers and still one of its most effective fore-checkers, Artturi Lehkonen functions as the defensive conscience for the Avalanche’s scoring lines. His versatility was a draw in acquiring him at the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline, and it’s no surprise that he played a major role in Colorado’s dominant Stanley Cup run, scoring eight goals and 14 points in 20 playoff games.
Since then, Lehkonen has been the Avalanche’s version of a fixer, with every line he gets plugged into suddenly seeing a notable bump in on-ice results. He’s the only player in the league to feature on two of the 10 best forward lines by expected goals share (xGF%) at five-on-five (minimum 30 minutes played), playing as the left-winger on the third- and fifth-strongest lines in that regard. His lines are two of only seven in the league to account for 70% or more of the xGF share, showing just how well he meshes with more skilled line-mates.
Otherwise, Lehkonen’s boxscore numbers aren’t very notable at first glance. He scored at a 27-goal, 65-point pace in his first full season with the Avalanche but is currently producing at a slightly lower 22-goal, 52-point pace while seeing his per-60-minute rates in assists, primary assists, and points all dip compared to a season ago. Fortunately, his personal rates of shot- and chance-generation have all experienced an uptick despite not playing as often at five-on-five.
| Statistic | Lehkonen | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 9.7 | 3rd |
| Scoring Chances | 8.8 | 5th |
| High-Danger Chances | 4.4 | 5th |
| Expected Goals | 0.8 | 6th |
Lehkonen has also seen additional usage on the top power-play unit to great effect. He’s tallied one goal and four points while receiving around four-and-a-half minutes of ice time with the man advantage per game, nearly a minute more than he did last season.
Lehkonen appears to be taking an increased role in the offense, so seeing him finish with career highs in most – if not all – of his scoring totals should be within the realm of possibility. If nothing else, he’s playing his role as a support winger for the team’s star forwards to perfection and should continue to be a bargain at his $4.5 million cap hit.
Avalanche Need More From Depth Players
Despite Colorado’s strong start to the campaign, there are still several persistent concerns that must be addressed before the end of the regular season. The most pressing, by far, is the discrepancy in offensive production between the superstars and the depth pieces – particularly away from the power play – which was a key factor in their loss to the Kraken in the 2023 Playoffs.
The Avalanche have only scored 19 goals at five-on-five (24th in the NHL), with 10 of those markers coming off the sticks of Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, or Cale Makar. The difference is less pronounced with the man-advantage where that same trio has only scored four of Colorado’s eight goals, with MacKinnon and Makar combining for only a single power-play goal so far.
Every team relies heavily on their stars, and some of the gap is due to some bad luck in the finishing department, so I’d expect the scoring distribution to even out as the season progresses. If the distance between the two groups expands, the Avalanche’s Stanley Cup hopes could be in serious jeopardy.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.
