It’s no secret that the Jack Hughes-less New Jersey Devils are considered underdogs in Round 1 against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes, listed around -240 to win the series on most major sportsbooks, are the heaviest favorites among all of the currently set playoff series’.
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Nonetheless, the Devils have showed they can hang with the Hurricanes, as they split the season series (2-2) and edged the Canes out in goals (13-12). However, J. Hughes was healthy for all four of those games, notching six points. While the task is tall, Sheldon Keefe’s Devils are going to need three important storylines to go their way in order to pull off the upset. Here they are:
Key #1: Dominate the Special Teams Battle
A few weeks ago, Keefe called special teams his “baby” – and rightfully so. As it stands, the Devils rank third in power play percentage (PP% – 28.0%) and second on the penalty kill (PK% – 82.4%). It’s been the biggest reason that they’ve remained afloat despite being 26th in 5v5 scoring (via Natural Stat Trick).
It would be tough to expect the same level of power play success against a Hurricanes team that is the only team better than the Devils on the penalty kill, boasting a PK% of 84.1%. However, there’s reason to believe the Devils can still break through. Since Apr. 1, the Hurricanes’ success rate is 76.5% – 22nd in the league. In that same span, the red-hot Devils’ power play is clicking at 33.3%.
To make things even better for the Devils, the Hurricanes’ power play is clicking at just 18.6% this season, which is 26th in the NHL. The Devils’ penalty kill has thrived all season, but since Apr. 1, they’re even better with an 84.6% efficacy rate.
Given the depth of the Hurricanes, who create three more scoring chances per 60 minutes (SCF/60) at even strength than any team in the league, the Devils likely won’t win the battle there. So, if the Devils want to win, their best shot is completely dominating the special teams battle. Even a slight edge in the Devils’ favor might still keep them at an overall disadvantage.
When these two teams faced off in Round 2 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the teams boasted an identical 16.7% PP and 83.3% PK during that series. The Hurricanes outscored the Devils 24-13 overall. A similar result should be expected if the Devils can’t get ahold of their special teams.
Key #2: A *Truly* Healthy Dougie Hamilton
As mentioned, even strength is not the Devils’ friend. But there’s a way they can keep it much closer, and that’s Dougie Hamilton’s return from a lower-body injury. Head coach Keefe recently said that they “expected” Hamilton to be available, but if it’s anything like when he played hurt in Round 2 in 2023, he’ll be ineffective (he had just one point and a minus-10 rating).
This season, the Devils have outchanced their opponents by 91 at even strength when Hamilton is on the ice, and outscored their opponents by 14. Since he went down, they’re getting outscored by 14 and only three teams have scored fewer goals.
Hamilton’s defensive game has never been his strong suit, but he’s effective in nature by constantly keeping play in the offensive zone. That won’t be nearly as easy against a stifling, Rod Brindamour-led Canes team, but if Hamilton is effective and the Devils can at least get close to matching their 5v5 production, a couple lucky bounces in a short series could swing games the Devils’ way.
Hamilton had a goal and an assist in his four games against the Hurricanes this season. His availability will also help the Devils get Luke Hughes more favorable matchups. Hughes has stepped up immensely with 16 points in 17 games since Hamilton went down; only five defensemen (including his brother Quinn) have a higher points-per-game in that span.
Key #3: Shoot, Shoot, Shoot!
After a regular season matchup, Keefe called the Hurricanes a team that “shoots from the parking lot,” a reference to their tendency to produce a high volume of shots – their 31.7 shots per game (SOG/GP) leads the entire Eastern Conference. On the other hand, the Devils are 10th in the conference with 28.1 SOG/GP.
While both Hurricanes netminders – Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen – have been solid, they’ve mightily struggled as of late. Andersen has allowed 13 goals on his last 75 shots (.826 save percentage – SV%). Kochetkov has allowed 24 of his last 141 (.830 SV%).
Odds are they won’t struggle in that fashion long, but some early Devils goals can hurt their confidence and give the Devils an advantage. Andersen has been great in the playoffs (.914 SV%), but he’s 35 years old and may be running out of gas. Kochetkov is 1-4-1 with an .863 SV% in his playoff career.
To this point, the Devils have scored 22 goals below expected, so they haven’t exactly made life difficult on goaltenders. But funneling pucks to the net consistently will help keep the netminders off-balance and unsettled. Hamilton is one of the Devils’ best assets in this regard, as he’s third on the team with 2.89 SOG/GP, trailing Jack Hughes (3.69) and Timo Meier (2.99).
Some Givens
On a broader level, it’s a given that the Devils’ defense and goaltending has to be on point to take down Carolina. They’ve both excelled for the most part, as their 2.65 goals allowed per game is a top five mark in the NHL. Both Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen have combined to stop 21.8 goals above expected (via MoneyPuck).
It certainly won’t be an easy task for the Devils, but if everything is clicking, they have a shot. Now, it’s time for them to go out and execute.
