Every successful team needs players who overachieve, whether it’s a young player on an entry-level deal or an older player on a team-friendly contract. If players perform better than their cap hit, it usually doesn’t last long, which is why Stanley Cup-winning rosters can rarely stay together. Look at the Tampa Bay Lightning from their 2020 Stanley Cup victory compared to now.
For the Edmonton Oilers to be successful, they will need many players to overachieve – the more the better. They haven’t had a ton of players overachieve despite the chances given to many wingers in the top-six over the years on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s wing.
Their tight cap situation has forced the Oilers to turn to young players on the rise and some cheaper options to fill their lineup. While some teams might be worse because of it, that doesn’t seem to be the case for Edmonton. There are three players at the perfect spots in their careers and the Oilers can greatly benefit this season because of it. Here’s a look at these underrated key pieces for an Oilers Cup run this season.
2 Young Oilers Impressing
For a second year in a row, Dylan Holloway has been the most impressive Oiler in the preseason. The top-six seems to be set, but the second-year forward is proving that he should not be playing any lower than the third line (from “Lowetide: With Oilers rookies in short supply, expect more from sophomores”, The Athletic, Oct. 4, 2023).
Holloway has the perfect combination of speed, physicality, and scoring ability, and he still has one final season on his entry-level deal. In 2022-23, the coaching staff didn’t help his development when they dropped him to the fourth line immediately after a couple of mistakes. His NHL season was cut short due to injury, also resulting in an American Hockey League (AHL) assignment instead of finishing the season with the Oilers.
Holloway only scored three goals and nine points in 51 games last season, but he also only averaged 9:35 of ice time per game, playing with fourth-line players, at best. He gives the Oilers a lot of hope as he has consistently been playing great in preseason. His linemates should be Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele, who are also improving for the Oilers.
Philip Broberg is the other young Oiler who has impressed in training camp and is actually being given a shot in the lineup. While last season he was limited to 46 games and averaged 12:36 of ice time per game as the seventh defenceman, he is now being tested on the second pair beside Mattias Ekholm. Both are left-shot defencemen, so it is important that Broberg is being played on his strong side. We saw the immediate impact Ekholm had on Evan Bouchard late last season. The Oilers are hoping for a similar result with Broberg.
Unfortunately, even though Broberg has shown poise and patience, and he is a big smooth-skating defender, he was stuck behind Vincent Desharnais last season. He hasn’t looked great so far in the preseason to the benefit of Broberg. The hope is that Broberg becomes a top-four defenceman, especially by the time Ekholm’s contract is over. He, too, is in the final year of his entry-level deal (after an entry-level slide for the first two years). As the eighth-overall pick in 2019, many have been waiting for his breakout, but he is only 22 years old, has experienced injuries that have slowed his development, and has only played 69 NHL games. If he can establish himself as a top-four defenceman this season, that would be great for the team, now and in the future.
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Both Holloway and Broberg will need new contracts after the season, but there should be spots near the top of the lineup for them. They can succeed in the role they may be put in right now, and with only one season to prove themselves before having to re-sign, the Oilers can keep the cap hit down as well for a few more years.
The Team-Friendly Veteran
The Oilers traded Jesse Puljujarvi at the trade deadline and Kailer Yamamoto this offseason to clear over $6 million from the books, but they still have very little cap space to work with after re-signing their restricted free agents (RFA) and as new contracts kick in. Once again, they seemed to be in a tough spot to get a top-six winger until Connor Brown to the Oilers in free agency started picking up in the rumour mill. Once the signing was finalized, everyone was amazed at the contract Ken Holland managed to get him at.
Brown was signed at a $775,000 cap hit, which allows the Oilers to remain cap-compliant. He also has a history and chemistry with Connor McDavid from their time in junior. The Oilers can do a lot of damage on the power play and that won’t change, but they need better execution at five-on-five. Unlike the inconsistencies of past wingers that were given a shot in the top-six for the Oilers, Brown is a veteran and has proven he can score on a line with players much worse than who he is set to play beside, McDavid and Evander Kane.
If Brown managed to score 47 goals and 117 points in 191 games (with very limited power-play time) alongside mid-level players on the Ottawa Senators over three seasons, he can produce more than what we’ve seen from any of the wingers who have come and gone in the past number of seasons. Having said that, he is coming off a pretty big injury, so expectations have to be tempered.
Oilers’ Success Last Season
The Oilers benefitted from two great young players on entry-level deals last season as well – Bouchard and Stuart Skinner. While Bouchard was limited for the first half of the season with hardly any power-play time and with the Oilers having three solid right defencemen, he was incredible after Ekholm arrived in Edmonton. Bouchard manned the top power play and recorded 17 points in 12 playoff games. He gained confidence, and he is only going to get better this season.
The Oilers revamped their goaltending last season. While they signed Jack Campbell to be the starter, Skinner, a rookie, took over the net and was solid all season. The playoffs didn’t go as planned, but that was a ton of pressure for a rookie against a team that made every netminder look like an AHL goalie on their run to the Stanley Cup. Both Bouchard and Skinner played above their contracts, and it worked out better than expected, especially at the start of the season.
While players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman weren’t exactly paid pennies, they also overachieved and helped the Oilers get to where they did. If Edmonton can get solid performances from Holloway, Broberg, and Brown, as well as at least expected performances from the rest of the team, the Oilers are going to be looking very good in 2023-24.
