Though he started off his 2024-25 season with a high plus/minus rating, the Philadelphia Flyers‘ Noah Cates wasn’t exactly playing his best. Unsustainable puck luck hid some of his struggles from box scores. Over the past month, however, he has flipped that on its head.
Despite a minus-1 rating since then (he’s now on the bad side of unsustainable puck luck), Cates has taken his game to the next level. In fact, he may be undergoing his best run with the Orange and Black. By no fault of his own, mind you, that doesn’t mean they should re-sign the restricted free agent (RFA) this offseason. Why not?
Flyers Already Made This Mistake with Hathaway (Team Needs Draft Capital)
The biggest issue to highlight with a Cates extension is one that I pointed out months ago. Only, this was with a different player: Garnet Hathaway. The same logic applies here, so let’s discuss.
Related: Philadelphia Flyers’ Hathaway Extension Highlights Flawed Rebuild Approach
Just like Hathaway, Cates is a good bottom-six piece. Players like this can be used to exploit overeager buyers, like the Buffalo Sabres in the 2024 offseason as I highlighted above. They gave the Washington Capitals a second-round pick for depth forward Beck Malenstyn, who has eight points in 39 games since being acquired. Sure, that’s maybe a slight overpay, but they got a roster player for one of their excess draft selections—surely this trade can’t be looking bad for them already, right?
Well, this could take the cake as the worst move of the offseason. Washington selected Cole Hutson with Buffalo’s pick (a player I suggested the Flyers be all over, but I digress), and he has the makings of a star. Through the preliminary round of the 2025 World Junior Championship, his eight points were tied for first among all players—he’s an 18-year-old defenseman.
Related: Guide to the 2025 World Junior Championship
As I stated in that article, these are the opportunities the Flyers should be after. Hutson’s trajectory suggests he could be a top-four defender, or perhaps even better. No bottom-six veteran is worth rejecting this kind of upside. Not Hathaway, and not Cates.
Now, you’re not always going to get a 43rd-overall pick for your fourth-line players. That may have been an outlier circumstance. Still, though, the Flyers are in no position to be hanging onto their depth guys for dear life—it’s a rebuild after all, no? A star is more valuable than a “glue guy” or “culture-setter” any day of the week.
Cates Is Ultimately Replaceable
Cates has been playing as well as any third-line center can recently. Since I gave him a D-minus grade for how he performed over the Flyers’ first 25 contests, he has a 69.27% expected goal share at 5-on-5 per Natural Stat Trick. He has six goals and four assists for 10 points in the 14-game span, making him a glimmer of hope during an otherwise forgettable stretch for Philadelphia (5-8-1 record). For this, Cates deserves an A-grade, give or take.
But the term to focus on here is in that first sentence: “third-line center.” At the end of the day, that’s what Cates is, even when he’s at his absolute best. Over an 82-game season, the 25-year-old is on pace for 35 points. He’s shooting at an 18.7% clip, though, which will inevitably regress with enough time. Even still, an in-his-prime player scoring 35 points doesn’t make him untouchable.
Unfortunately, this is the sad reality some NHL players face in a salary cap league. If you’re not a star, then you may be replaceable by a cheaper option. Building a Stanley Cup roster depends on elite players, but also fiscal responsibility. As likable as Cates may be, he can be replaced (maybe not well, but to the point of no significant damage) with an inexpensive option on the free-agent market.
Flyers Must Increase Cap Space
To that point, the Flyers have put themselves in a position where increasing cap space should be a priority for them in the new calendar year. After spending over $150 million in 2024, it’d be a nice New Year’s Resolution to seal their wallets for a bit.
Choosing to extend Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny to eight-year contracts is fine, so long as the Flyers don’t do that all the time. They need to be saving money somewhere. Though Cates isn’t making the big dollars of either of those two players, it’s a place to start. Spending unnecessarily is what could hold the Flyers back from acquiring the star talent they so desperately need in their rebuild. In a league where 32 teams are trying to hunt down the Stanley Cup, financial competence is essential.
This is far from a sure-fire projection, but Cates is likely looking at a small boost on his $2.625 million cap hit as it stands. He could make around $3.0 million, potentially with a few years on that deal. Considering the in-house replacements the Flyers possess (which I’ll get into below), this is probably a temptation Philadelphia should resist.
Cates’ Departure Would Create New Opportunities
The NHL is a next-man-up league. When a player goes down, there’s always someone else looking to take advantage and make themselves known. Sitting in the American Hockey League (AHL), the Flyers have a few athletes who could benefit the team today. I addressed them in a recent article:
Related: Philadelphia Flyers Have Pieces to Opt for Cheaper Depth in 2025-26
It’s not just the players in the Flyers’ system who would get a major opportunity to make their mark with Cates leaving. In free agency, the team could sign a low-risk, high-reward depth piece instead. If the roster stays the same (like it has for the past three seasons), these opportunities are few and far between. Ideally, that changes soon.
Cates, who turns 26 in February, has been playing the best hockey of his NHL career recently. However, even his best isn’t worth a contract extension for a rebuilding Flyers team. This is because they need to capitalize on his trade value, he’s ultimately replaceable, they need more cap space, and his departure would create new opportunities for others—the downsides are simply too vast.
