Losing 1-0 in regulation to the Calgary Flames on Saturday no doubt hurt the Montreal Canadiens. However, it didn’t kill their playoff hopes. They’re still alive… but for how long?
It’s an inexact science, but the Canadiens need approximately 90 points to make the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. With 66 so far and 19 games remaining, they’re going to have to just about run the table to clinch a berth for the first time since 2021.
Head coach Martin St. Louis has said, “every game feels like a Game 7,” which, while an understandable mindset, implies every game is a must-win. Truth be told, they can afford to lose a game here and there. Granted, that would be the exact wrong mindset to have if you’re a member of the organization, but, thinking rationally, they’re not going 19-0.
They’re just not. They’ll lose a few here and there (in a best-case, realistic scenario). There’s no avoiding it.
Not all games are weighted equally, though. Based on where the Canadiens are in the standings and the teams they’re fighting for one of the two Eastern Conference wild-card spots, some are about as must-win as you can get. In contrast, here are the five where a loss wouldn’t be the end of the world and maybe even understandable based on a litany of outside factors:
Vancouver Canucks: March 11 on the road
The Canadiens play their next set of back-to-back games Tuesday against the Vancouver Canucks and Wednesday against the Seattle Kraken. Operating under the assumption it’s generally difficult to earn four out of four points under those circumstances, especially on the road, the Habs could drop one without anyone throwing a fit.
Considering neither opponent is facing the same two games in two nights, the Canadiens will no doubt be in tough. However, it’s worth noting they’ll obviously be more tired for the second game, against the Kraken. So, some may suggest that’s the game they can lose. However, a few things:
- The Canadiens have a backup goalie in Jakub Dobes in whom they can trust.
- The Canucks are in the throes of their own playoff race in the Western Conference right now and playing just-as-desperate hockey as them.
- The Kraken are on the other hand over 10 points out and an objectively worse team.
Related: Canadiens’ Dobes Deserves at Least 10 More Starts in 2024-25
Seeing as the Canadiens have had a hard time beating teams lower than them in the standings, they arguably need a victory in that game more. That’s doubly true considering they already lost to the Kraken 8-2 in October. A little revenge is in order.
Colorado Avalanche: March 22 at home
Losing at home on a Saturday night sucks… but losing in general sucks. It’s going to happen. So, if you have to lose, you may as well lose to one of the better teams in the league in the Colorado Avalanche, who are thankfully in the opposite conference.
There would be no shame in dropping this one. Consider the quality of competition, how it will have been over a week since their last projected loss and the fact the Canadiens already beat the Avalanche in convincing fashion in early January, in the middle of their impressive 16-6-1 run that vaulted them up from last place in the East to (temporarily) find themselves in a wild-card spot.
In fact, the Canadiens beat the last four Stanley Cup champions over that stretch. They’ve got nothing left to prove here. All that matters is the end result of getting into the playoffs or not. With that, this is one they can afford to lose. As long as the game is relatively tight, everyone should leave the Bell Centre satisfied.
Carolina Hurricanes: March 28 on the road
The Canadiens aren’t going to beat the Carolina Hurricanes every time out. That’s just a cold, hard fact. And, after they beat them for the first time after nine straight losses on Feb. 25, with a decisive 4-0 shutout no less at the Bell Centre, it’s reasonable to conclude they’re unlikely to come out on top again in Raleigh, on March 28 (after visiting the Philadelphia Flyers the night before).
Besides, if the Canadiens are going to beat the Hurricanes again, it’s going to have to come on April 16, in their last meeting and last game of the season (at home). That’s one of the aforementioned must-wins, just because this thing logically comes down to the wire. It’s hard enough to believe the Habs can beat the Canes once more this season. No one should expect them to sweep the series. So, they’re realistically dropping one. If that’s the case, it has to be this one.
Florida Panthers: April 1 at home
This is the back half of a home-and-home series, meaning it’s likely the Canadiens lose at least one, especially considering it’s to the Stanley Cup-champion Florida Panthers. The two sides play each other a few nights before on March 30, too.
While the first is on the road, it would probably be “better” for the Canadiens to lose the second, at the Bell Centre. Seeing as they face the Hurricanes above immediately beforehand, it would be ideal to space out their defeats as much as possible and avoid losing streaks.
Toronto Maple Leafs: April 12 on the road
As painful as it must be for Canadiens fans to read, beating the rival Toronto Maple Leafs in their final meeting of the season (on a Saturday, in front of a national audience, no less) shouldn’t be a priority. Oh, it would be nice, especially after the Habs lost their last game 7-3, in which they coughed up a 3-0 lead. However, the rest of April’s games are against teams who are either currently in the Eastern Conference playoff race with them or below them in the standings. Those are games they have to have if they’re going to pull this off.
Worse yet, the Canadiens face the Maple Leafs the night after they visit the Ottawa Senators. That’s the must-win game between the two, looking at the standings right now. It’s a scenario in which, as weird as it may sound, St. Louis will have to play starter Sam Montembeault against the “weaker” opponent and Dobes against the hypothetical division champions. Granted, there are no guarantees St. Louis goes that route if history is any indication, but it’s the way things should be. And, again, if history is any indication, Dobes could win anyway. So, Montrealers: Hold onto that hope, while bracing for a loss to the Leafs (and never hearing the end of it from Leafs fans… until the playoffs anyway).
