On the surface, it seems simple. When two parties are in a financial negotiation, both have an idea of where they want to be upon completion of the talks. Each party exaggerates its position at the beginning and then works toward its target from there.
Even if both parties have the exact same goal, they are not going to start the negotiations at that number for fear of weakening their position. The side paying will always start at a low number, while the receiving side will choose a high starting position. It’s a funny game for people who are supposed to be on the same side.
How does this relate to the current contract talks between the Toronto Maple Leafs and William Nylander? If we can believe the scuttlebutt we have been reading, the Maple Leafs, Nylander, and his agent Lewis Gross have begun negotiating a new contract that would begin in the 2024-25 season. The Maple Leafs’ opening position is around $8 million.
Related: 2007 NHL Draft: 5 Forgotten Picks
Nylander’s side has opened the talks at about $10 million. If that is the case, common sense would say the end goal for both sides would be somewhere in the middle, at about $9 million.
At First, the Happy Place for Nylander and the Maple Leafs Seems Simple
As we said off the top, this seems simple. However…
Flash back to the summer and fall of 2018, the last time these two sides were working on a contract. The opening position for the Maple Leafs was rumoured to be $6 million. Nylander and Gross were said to have started at $8 million. The middle ground there was $7 million. The final contract was signed with an annual cap hit of $6.96 million per season for the last five years of the deal, just below the $7 million median number.
The problem there is that it took literally until the last second to get the deal done. And, in fact, it was actually more than the $6.96 million AAV. If Nylander and the Maple Leafs had not signed the deal the day they did on Dec. 1, 2018, after Nylander sat the first two months of the season, he would have been forced to sit the complete 2018-19 season.
Related: Maple Leafs Commentary: William Nylander, Skilled But Polarizing
The deal itself ended up being six years at a total payout of $45.1 million. That works out to an average annual salary of just over $7.5 million. Because of the December signing and the fact the Maple Leafs front-loaded the deal, they were able to take advantage of a loophole in the contract rules to pay Nylander $12 million in year one while sustaining a cap hit of $10.3 million in the first year of the deal. (This was one season before Matthews and Marner signed their deals and the Maple Leafs had the extra cap space). The contract then carried a lower $6.96 million cap hit the remaining five years.
By holding out as long as he did, Nylander squeezed an extra $500,000 per season ($7.5 million per season average salary) above the $7 million that was the median number in those negotiations. We also have to remember that Nylander, as a restricted free agent (RFA), had no other leverage other than withholding his services.
Flash Forward to the Maple Leafs Today
Flash forward back to the present day, once Nylander’s current contract expires at the end of the 2023-24 season, he will be a UFA. At that point, he has all the leverage and all 31 other teams he can negotiate with. Right now, he has no real incentive to move off of his original $10 million demand and negotiate down to the Maple Leafs’ comfort level.
In fact, if we compare overall production numbers over the last three seasons, and the ranking of the highest-paid players in the NHL, the Maple Leafs’ “comfort” number of $9 million might be a tad south of what Nylander is worth.
Over the past three seasons, Nylander is 22nd in total goal production with 81 goals. He is 23rd in point production with 209 points. The 19th through 28th ranked players in NHL salary all make $9.5 million per season. That would indicate that Nylander’s value is around that $9.5 million mark. If he were to decide to enter the open market he could conceivably find a buyer for his services in the $10 million-plus range.
Related: Ex-Maple Leafs’ GM Dubas: Symbol of Hockey’s Generation Gap
He’s certainly worth much more than Pierre-Luc Dubois received from the Los Angeles Kings last week.
So, What Do the Maple Leafs Do?
The Maple Leafs can up the ante in an effort to sign Nylander before July 1, 2024, when he is eligible to become a UFA. The problem here is how high can they afford to go with their salary cap issues.
They could also trade him this summer. With one more year on his deal, his value is the highest it will ever be. It will also give the team acquiring him a full season to attempt to negotiate a new deal with him. The problem here is the Maple Leafs would be dealing from a point of weakness and would likely not get full value for Nylander.
(THE CANADIAN PRESS/Hans Deryk)
The Maple Leafs could also trade him closer to the trade deadline. Once again, unless the Maple Leafs mess up and fall out of a playoff spot, they won’t want to weaken their roster heading into the postseason.
The Maple Leafs Could Just Ride It Out with Nylander
The fourth option is to ride it out. They could use Nylander as their dreaded “own rental.” Let the season play out and see how it unfolds. With a new general manager (GM) in Brad Treliving and a new “direction” in team philosophy that he brings, the team might be ready to take that next step and become a serious Stanley Cup contender. There is always the chance this could be the year. If that were to happen, Nylander either decides to stay with a champion or sail off into the sunset.
Related: ‘Brass Bonanza’ – The Sound of Hockey
Whatever the Maple Leafs choose to do, Nylander is such a polarizing player, to a lot of fans it will probably be the wrong choice.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]