In this edition of Toronto Maple Leafs News & Rumors, I’ll take a look at what the team’s projected lineup might be if the season opened with the roster that it has right now. Second, I’ll take a look at what I think John Klingberg’s signing might mean for young defenseman Conor Timmins.
Finally, I’ll look at what seems like the inevitable prospect that William Nylander will not sign an extension and will head into the season on an expiring contract. I’ll share why I believe that might be a good thing for all involved.
Item One: What Will the Maple Leafs Lineup Look Like?
The Maple Leafs’ lineup has undergone some changes for the upcoming 2023-24 season. Thus far, the core offensive forwards of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Nylander, remain intact. To them were added Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, who will perhaps play top-six minutes.
Obviously, nothing is carved in stone and there could be significant changes during the remainder of free agency and training camp. However, using the current roster as we see it, what will the lineup for the Maple Leafs look like when October rolls around?
Forward lines Projection
First Line: Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Second Line: Max Domi – John Tavares – William Nylander
Third Line: Matthew Knies – David Kampf – Calle Jarnkrok
Fourth Line: Sam Lafferty – Dylan Gambrell – Ryan Reaves
Marlies in the Mix: Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann, Alex Steeves & Pontus Holmberg
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The opening night lineup features a few new faces among the 12 forwards. General manager (GM) Brad Treliving’s signings shift the forward lines toward a more physical style of play compared with previous seasons. While the success of the newcomers remains to be seen, it promises to be an intriguing season to watch the Maple Leafs over the course of 82 games.
Defensive Pairings
The Maple Leafs’ defensive pairings for the upcoming season could look like this:
First Pairing: Morgan Rielly – T.J. Brodie
Second Pairing: Jake McCabe – John Klingberg
Third Pairing: Mark Giordano – Timothy Liljegren
Extras: Conor Timmins, Max Lajoie
The defensive pairings look a lot like last season’s. However, the addition of Klingberg changes things – maybe particularly for Timmins. Until Klingberg came into the picture, I would have thought that Timmins would have run the second power-play unit. Now, he might be relegated to being an extra.
Related: 3 Reasons Maple Leafs’ Conor Timmins Offense Is Sustainable
I keep hearing that the defence needs to be fixed; however, from my perspective, it’s not as bad as that sentiment would make it seem. The pairings feature a healthy dose of experience with the likes of Rielly, Brodie, Giordano, and Klingberg. That experience should help a young talent like Liljegren finally get his feet solidly under him. As well, because injuries always happen on the blue line, the presence of depth defensemen Timmins and Lajoie offers depth and flexibility options for the team’s defensive lineup.
Goaltending
I believe that the Maple Leafs’ goalie situation is already settled and that not far away will be an announcement that Ilya Samsonov has re-signed with the team for the upcoming season. I also expect Matt Murray to be bought out. If so, the goalie situation will look like this:
Ilya Samsonov will be the starting goalie, and Joseph Woll will be his backup.
That goalie tandem seems solid for now. However, the team might sign a journeyman who sits with their American Hockey League (AHL) Toronto Marlies just in case there are injuries. It might also be that they will use one of their top Marlies goalies to fill in for injuries, just as Erik Kallgren did last season. Kallgren did play 24 games with the Maple Leafs over the past two seasons, so injuries happen. By the way, on July 1, Kallgren signed with the New Jersey Devils.
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Currently, Samsonov and Woll are the projected goaltenders for the Maple Leafs.
Item Two: Where Does Conor Timmins Come Into Play This Season?
I was excited to see how Timmins would have done this season; however, I also understand swinging for the fences with the Klingberg signing. Now the question is what happens with Timmins after Klingberg’s addition?
That addition, because Klingberg is such an offensive defenseman, has to impact Timmins’ playing time. Unless there’s an injury, he will likely not get much time running the power play. Klingberg has solid offensive skills and is a puck-mover.
If the Maple Leafs expect to limit Timmins’ power-play usage, might they consider exploring trade possibilities for him? He’s only making $1.1 million, but that’s still a bit over $300,000 more than the league minimum salary. How tight is the salary-cap upper limit?
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Right now, I expect the Maple Leafs will keep Timmins around because he’s such a positive question mark. The minutes he put up with the team last season have shown that he seems able to generate points, and that isn’t a bad thing. As well, injuries happen, and having capable replacements is crucial to maintain depth and handle unforeseen situations during the season.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
Right now, unless there’s a huge surprise coming, it’s looking as if Nylander is with the team and won’t be signing a contract extension. In my mind, there are worse things than allowing him to play out his contract. One is to panic and trade him right now for peanuts.
If Nylander walks to free agency, the narrative is that they get nothing for him. That’s not accurate. The team gets his salary cleared from the books and gets to go free-agent hunting with it.
It also could be that, once Nylander explores free agency, he won’t find a contract or a landing team as attractive as where he’s been with the Maple Leafs. It’s a gamble for the team, but it would turn the dynamic.
In psychology, there’s a concept often called the “power shift theory.” It suggests that there are positive psychological effects when the chaser becomes the one being chased.
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Right now, the Maple Leafs are chasing Nylander hoping he’ll sign. He and his agent have the weight of the power in that scenario. At the end of his contract, that power could change. If Nylander signs somewhere else, he’s gone. But if he wants to stay, he has to go out and find a better deal. If he can’t, he becomes the chaser and his agent has to come to the team asking the Maple Leafs to reconsider. If neither of those things happens, the team goes out and spends Nylander’s salary on a player it believes fits their needs more perfectly.
Who knows? But, if Nylander wants to stay in Toronto the ball would be in his court. If he doesn’t, that would be good to know as well.