While one can debate when the “stretch run” in hockey begins, this author believes that with 25 games to go, the Winnipeg Jets’ stretch run is here.
The Jets are in a good spot: at 37-15-5, they sit first in the Central Division, tied with the Dallas Stars with 79 points but owning four games in hand. They have managed to — at least for now — stave off a prolonged second-half slump, as they’ve won seven of their last eight after losing a season-high five in a row.
A playoff berth is likely (MoneyPuck has the Jets’ odds at making the playoffs at 99.9 per cent, for what it’s worth) so what should the Jets focus on “down the stretch” since the focus isn’t just on fighting for their playoff lives? Here, we’ll dive into three things they should turn their attention to so they go into the postseason with the best possible chance of making a deep run at their first Stanley Cup.
1: Figure Out How to Play Well at 5-on-5 & on the Power Play in the Same Game
The Jets’ power play is suddenly bearing much fruit after being barren for most of the season, and especially before the last six games.
In the past half-dozen contests, they have eight power play goals, and in four of those games (against the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild, and Arizona Coyotes) scored a pair when on the man advantage. The only games they didn’t score a power play goal were against the Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues (but they did score on a delayed penalty against the Blackhawks.)
The eight-for-18 stretch is nothing less than an explosion of production, considering their power play regime has been subpar — if not downright inept — for most of the season. In the 11 games before the six games we covered above, they went one for 33.
The power-play improvements are due to a number of factors: channeling the options through Gabriel Vilardi and the recently-acquired Sean Monahan at the net-front, more faceoff wins (many by Monahan) that establish zone possession quickly and avoid the 30 to 40-second time sink of going back 180 feet to get the puck and then trying to re-enter the zone, and more urgency to shoot instead of passing around the perimeter.
However, with power play prowess has come a dip in play at five-on-five, which has been the straw that’s stirred the drink and the main reason the Jets have been so successful this season despite being in the lower third of special-teams metrics.
Related: Jets’ Power Play Thrives, Even-Strength Play Struggles After Break
The stout defensive structure has shown some cracks, the possession numbers are down, and some of the lines — especially the top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Vilardi — are actually getting outshot and out-chanced outside of their time on the power play.
The Jets’ most recent contest against the Blues was the first time they controlled the majority of possession in six games. They scored four even-strength goals in that game while only allowing two, but in the five games prior, were only even (12-12) in even-strength goals scored versus allowed. We know from past seasons that relying on Connor Hellebuyck to bail the team out is not sustainable.
The Jets will be a juggernaut if they can figure out how to get re-establish their stinginess while keeping their power play hot, or at least decent. Getting both aspects of the game firing at the same time would be something a clickbait ad would tout as “one simple hack to going deep into the postseason. Opponents HATE this!”
Josh Morrissey, for one, believes power-play success will lead to even-strength success. “It’s been nice to get the power play going, and I think it translates into the five-on-five for feeling a little bit better with the puck,” the defenseman said recently (from ‘Morrissey is making magnificence mundane,’ Winnipeg Free Press, Feb. 26, 2024.)
2: Ease Hellebuyck’s Workload
We know the Jets’ masked man is a workhorse the crease every night. However, he shouldn’t get that going forward.
Hellebuyck — who should be the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy with a 28-11-3 record, 2.21 Goals Against Average (GAA,) .925 Save Percentage (SV%), three shutouts, and 29.1 Goals Saved Above Expected — needs regular rest from this point forward so he can go into the postseason fresh.
Head coach Rick Bowness seems to have learned the lesson his predecessor Paul Maurice never did: that even the NHL’s best goaltenders aren’t immune from fatigue. He gave Laurent Brossoit the start against the Blues, saying Brossoit “deserves” to play important games and that his plan is to get his backup more involved.
“We’ve got 16 games in March and (two) back-to-backs. We said right from training camp that we’re going to try to reduce the workload on Bucky and we’re doing that. LB’s been playing very, very well and there’s absolutely no reason that he shouldn’t play in those games,” he said prior to the game.
Maurice ran Hellebuyck absolutely ragged in 2021-22 especially, and by the time the stretch run came around and Maurice’s club were battling for their playoff lives, Hellebuyck was obviously exhausted and his play dropped off precipitously. The Jets paid the price for mismanaging Hellebuyck’s workload as they missed the playoffs.
Hellebuyck made a whopping 66 starts that campaign, and has made 42 this season. In this author’s opinion, he shouldn’t get close to 60.
Brossoit is more than capable of shouldering a bit more of the work over the next month and a half and should be given 10-12 more starts; he should be motivated to shine considering he signed a a one-year contract and is trying to prove to the league he is starter-calibre. Brossoit has been nearly as good as Hellebuyck , albeit in a smaller sample size, with a 9-4-2 record, 2.26 GAA, .923 SV%, and 7.0 Goals Saved Above Expected in 15 starts.
3: Get Slumping Players Going Again
The Jets recently went through an offensive dry spell where they scored just nine goals in eight games. While they have rebounded with 24 goals in their past six, lean times continue for some of their personnel.
The best example of an offensively-scuffling player is unfortunately Cole Perfetti, who after a very strong first few months of the season is riding a 14-game pointless streak, has just one assist in his last 15, and no goals in his past 17. The 22-year-old is looking unconfident and has recently been assigned to fourth-line duties with Vladislav Namestnikov and Morgan Barron after being a second-line staple for the first 50-some games.
Bowness, for one, believes the assignment is not a demotion, but more of a lifeline. “Listen, he puts a lot of pressure on himself. He’s gone 15 games with one assist. He takes pride in that. You see those things,” the head coach said recently.
“Let’s put him down a position and take a little pressure off of him. It helped him (against the Blackhawks on Feb. 23.) He looked good on that line. Plus, when you’re on that line, you’re playing against different people on the opposition. You’re playing against the other third-pairing D and you’re playing against, mostly, the fourth-line guys. So that takes a little bit of pressure off as well, that you’re not out there against the top couple of lines and the top couple of D-pairings.” (From’ Finding the right mix,’ Winnipeg Free Press, Feb. 24, 2024.)
Alex Iafallo, meanwhile, just snapped extended goal-scoring slump against the Blues by scoring his first goal in 20 games. Iafallo has cooled down significantly after starting the season red hot; while his defensive play has been strong all season and he continues to provide value with that aspect of his game, the fact he has only 19 points is a bit disappointing considering he had 13 by the end of November and had 36 in 59 games last season with the Los Angeles Kings.
Bowness elevated Iafallo — who has now one goal and one assist in his past 21 games — back to the top six at the same time he bumped Perfetti down. Iafallo hasn’t had much chance to gel with Nikolaj Ehlers and Monahan, especially since Monahan missed the game against the Coyotes due to illness, but the trio was effective against the Blues, producing two goals and five points and posting an 82.3 expected goals percentage, as per MoneyPuck.
There are a few others who need to start lighting the lamp more if the Jets want to considered a true four-line scoring threat. Adam Lowry has no goals in 18 games (but does have seven assists in that span) while Barron has one goal in his last 19, Nino Niederreiter has two goals in his past 23, and Namestnikov is on a 12-game pointless streak.
One can argue if Bowness’ line shuffles or player-usage decisions are the right ones — and boy, if you go onto Facebook, Reddit, or the platform previously known as Twitter, people sure do — but it’s obvious he’s trying to find the secret sauce by testing out various line formations and trying to get as many players going as he can. With the potential for injuries or continued individual struggles, it’s never bad to have options and to allow players to build chemistry with as many of their teammates as possible.