The Montreal Canadiens were three games from a Cinderella story Stanley Cup win, then, the wheels fell off and over the next six months, everything that could go wrong, did. That’s when team owner Geoff Molson decided to hire a new management team and go all in for a rebuild. It’s been just over two full years, and now the expectations on the team’s performance begin.
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The main theme at the Canadiens’ annual charity golf tournament, which is the unofficial kickoff for the new season, was to be “in the mix”. This raises questions such as, what does this mean? If it’s to be in a playoff spot, is it realistic? Does it mean the rebuild is complete?
What Does This Mean for the Canadiens?
The first question seems to be the easiest to tackle so we’ll start there. Being in the mix doesn’t mean making the playoffs. It’s clear that the Canadiens’ priority is to compete for playoffs. However, no one from the coaching staff or management ever said they were aiming to make the playoffs; they raised the expectations from last season, but did so reasonably. Playing meaningful games into the month of March is a step forward, but doesn’t place pressure on the young players or the team as a whole to fight for that last playoff spot.
“I want us to be in the race, more long-term. I can’t predict whether that means until the last game, I can’t predict whether we’ll make the playoffs.”
Montreal has been in the NHL cellar for three consecutive NHL entry drafts, selecting 1st overall in 2022, and 5th overall in 2023 and 2024. Over that span, the team rose from a 55-point season to 76 points in, 2023-24. To make the playoffs, a team needs at least 90 points, case in point, the Washington Capitals needed 91 to make the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference last season.
Canadiens Setting Realistic Goals
Is it realistic to make the playoffs? Not really. The Atlantic Division is the NHL’s most competitive, giving the Canadiens the most difficult possible path to a playoff spot. The Florida Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions, and the Tampa Bay Lightning have won two of the last four Cups. The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs are both perennial playoff teams that have retooled with competing in the playoffs in mind. Then there are three more teams ahead of Montreal in terms of a rebuild that are all looking to dethrone one of the teams named above, with the Buffalo Sabres desperate to end their 13-year streak of missing the playoffs. But all of that doesn’t mean the players wearing the Canadiens sweater aren’t confident in themselves.
“I know they’ve been saying that (being in the mix) a lot recently. For us, it just means battling for a playoff spot right to the very end. As players, we want to make the playoffs this year, obviously; get back to where we used to be. It’s up to us to get those wins and get those points, and put ourselves in a position to make the playoffs at the end of the regular season.”
Hope is growing among the Canadiens and their fan base. The 2023-24 season brings them a clean slate, one where they can all hope for the good luck that they will need to surprise the hockey world. The club will get a boost at center as Kirby Dach returns after suffering a season-ending knee injury only two games into last season. Add in a full season from Alex Newhook and newly acquired Patrik Laine, and the Canadiens have a legitimate second line that can score and take pressure off of the team’s top line.
Speaking of that top line, the team needs to see another step forward from Suzuki, to become closer to an 80-point center. A step ahead by Cole Caufield, to crack into the 30-plus goal range and Juraj Slafkovsky to continue to play as he did in the second half of last season. There are also the Habs’ defence prospects, Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux, David Reinbacher and Adam Engstrom, who all showed they are a tier above most prospects during the recent 2024 Prospect Showdown and are knocking at the door for NHL jobs, which should improve the team’s defensive game, but in the future, just not this season. Montreal will need absolutely everything to fall in place to have any hope at all of being a playoff team.
Montreal’s Next Stage
Realistically, that level of luck, and a playoff spot, are highly unlikely. The Canadiens were one of the worst defensive teams last season sitting 27th in goals against (GA), and they had the misfortune of also being one of the lowest scoring sitting 26th in goals for (GF). That is not a combination that equates to a playoff spot, or even to being “in the mix”.
Truthfully, if the club can reach the trade deadline within six points of the final playoff spot, they will still be playing meaningful games, adding experience to one of the youngest rosters in the NHL. Being in the mix at that point would then force management to make a difficult call, to sell the pending unrestricted free agents (UFA) on the roster, or keep them as “own rentals” and give the youth some veteran help to keep them mathematically able to make the playoffs until the last few games of the season.
Now that Slafkovsky has signed his extension, the core is starting to form with Kaiden Guhle, Suzuki and Caufield all signed to long-term contracts, it gives management an opportunity to take a risk on a big cap hit, such as Laine. His need for a fresh start is fulfilled by his arrival in Montreal, and his ability to score fills a desperate need for the Canadiens.
“It’s not a secret that the last couple years have been a little tough, but I think it’s just great to get this new opportunity with this team. That’s something I was hoping for, I feel like they’re building something special here.”
Thanks to having young defenders performing well so far and young forwards pushing their way into the conversations of stealing an NHL job, the 2024-25 season begins with legitimate expectations for the team to take another step forward. Being in the mix for a playoff spot doesn’t mean that is the target, it also doesn’t mean the rebuild is complete either. There is still a need to develop their young players and prospects and add a couple more pieces, but the team is on the right path as the expectations are set, and now it falls onto the players to take their next steps on the path to becoming a contender.
