The question is how high can the 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens go? As they’re last in the Eastern Conference with 16 points at 7-10-2, as the season reaches in quarter mark, it’s a fairly prudent question, because, theoretically, that’s the only way they can go, with Habs fans admittedly having gotten a taste of better hockey recently.
The Canadiens are a respectable 3-1 over their last four. And, for whatever it’s worth, in the one game of those three they lost, a 3-0 defeat to the Minnesota Wild on Nov. 14, they were very much in it until the third period. Of course, the same can be said of the Edmonton Oilers, who the Habs shut out 3-0 themselves on Nov. 18.
Canadiens vs. Oilers
Considering the firepower the Canadiens have at their disposal, that win over the Oilers may have been their most impressive game so far. However, at points in the contest, despite finishing strong in terms of possession, the Oilers had been outshooting the Habs by a 2:1 margin.
It may be a testament to the Canadiens’ effort level that they were able to close the gap eventually, the game ending 30-25 in favour of the Oilers there. However, it’s more so a testament to goalie Sam Montembeault that they were able to stay in the game up to the point at which Brendan Gallagher got them on the board in the final minute of the second period.
To be fair, Montembeault is obviously a member of the Canadiens. His performances count. Should he stand on his head, it’s arguably no different than if Cole Caufield scores a hat trick at the other end of the ice, which he last did in a 10-2 win over the Florida Panthers to close out the 2021-22 season. That game also marked Carey Price’s last-ever, but, despite however fun it was to watch at the time, it’s the only reason it’s worth remembering due to its lasting ramifications.
The Canadiens still finished last in the standings that season. Granted, finishing last enabled them to pick first overall at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft (selecting Juraj Slafkovsky). However, it wasn’t exactly a victory they could build off of en route to sustained in-season success. Because of where they are in the standings currently, so close to American Thanksgiving, the Habs face a similar risk.
It’s almost kismet that the Oilers were their last opponent at this juncture. After all, the Oilers were tied for last place in the entire NHL on Nov. 9, 2023, almost a full year ago. At exactly a full year ago, the Oilers were 5-12-1, 10 points out of the second wild-card spot. From this point on last season, they went 44-15-5, eventually earning the second berth in the Pacific Division and going on to reach the Stanley Cup Final.
Obviously, the Canadiens are no stranger to Cinderella Stanley Cup Final runs, having lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games in the championship series in 2021 (before the bottom fell out on the franchise). However, what the Oilers accomplished last season is significantly different in that they are a championship-calibre team built to win now (with exception perhaps to in net). Sure, then-Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin had arguably put together the best Canadiens team since their 1993 Stanley Cup heading into that pandemic-shortened season. However, the difference is clear: By the time the Habs staggered to the regular season’s finish line, few people expected them to so much as get past the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 1, especially once they fell down three games to one.
In contrast, by the time the Oilers reached the end of the last regular season, they had proven themselves worthy sexy selections to go all the way. In the eyes of many, their disastrous start to last season was something that threatened to dash the hopes of promising season during which they were expected to contend ahead of time. The start amounted to little more than a footnote.
The Post-Carey Price Canadiens Era
No one realistically saw the Canadiens as anything other than maybe contending for a playoff spot, based on how they’re currently constructed. And, if Montembeault continues to steal games, as unlikely as it is that he makes a habit out of it, the Habs will find themselves in the same old vicious circle this from-the-ground-up rebuild was meant to avoid: the construction of a year-in, year-out bubble team.
Related: NHL Rebuild Rankings: 2024-25 Preseason Edition
Now, these Canadiens do have a few things going for them. Montembeault is no Carey Price. So, the Habs will find it difficult to consistently rely on him to the degree they did the latter. If they do become a playoff-calibre team, it will presumably be on the strength of the team in front of him which is in a great position to grow together, being as young and as stacked talent-wise as it is.
It may be a nothing factoid, but, when Kaiden Guhle scored the 2-0 marker against the Oilers, it marked the 10th straight goal by a different Canadiens player. So, the Habs clearly have depth. It’s just a matter of staying healthy enough that they can ice the team they want consistently.
It’s a good omen the Canadiens are playing as well as they are without star-offseason-acquisition Patrik Laine having played this season. It bodes well for next season, when last year’s first-round pick, Ivan Demidov, is projected to arrive in North America and round out the forward group further, Laine set to still be under contract. However, as far this season goes, based on where they are at the quarter mark and how the team is constructed, a playoff run or just a run to earn a playoff spot is probably out of the question.
The Canadiens may be a mere five points out to the Oilers’ 10 last season (with games in hand to their credit). However, they’re still just one out of last place overall. Outside of their recent stretch, during which they’ve beaten three bubble teams, they’ve shown much more in common with a last-place squad than a playoff one. Their expected goals percentage (per MoneyPuck.com) is proof to that effect.
The slight improvements they’ve shown recently, while encouraging, are more so a sign the remaining three quarters of the season will only go slightly better, but certainly not to the point they can leapfrog eight teams to get to the promised land. As long as you’re of the belief the promised land was never within reach this season, you’ll be just fine. So, will the Canadiens, just bit by bit.
