Though the Colorado Avalanche now sit in a playoff position after winning 26 of their last 39 games and scoring big wins over the Winnipeg Jets (5-2), Florida Panthers (3-1), and the Minnesota Wild (6-1) over the past two weeks, not everything has gone according to plan this season.
There have been injuries aplenty, a complete overhaul in the crease, and uncharacteristically inefficient special teams play. Another concern has been the performance of 26-year-old Casey Mittelstadt, thought to be their long-term solution at second-line center. The American’s arrival in a trade with the Buffalo Sabres signaled the end of a lengthy search for a replacement for Nazem Kadri, who cashed in during free agency following the Avalanche’s 2022 Stanley Cup title run.
It’s been a mixed bag of results so far, prompting concerns about whether Mittelstadt really is the right player to play behind 2024 Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon, and what can be done to offer support going forward.
Mittelstadt’s Scoring Totals Down From 2023-24
Mittelstadt started off his Avalanche tenure with four goals and 10 points in 18 games following his trade from the Sabres and added nine points in 11 playoff games as Colorado fell to the Dallas Stars in the second round. The combined 20 points in 29 games represented a 57-point pace over 82 games which, while unspectacular, was a massive improvement over the 23 points in 63 games that the team received from top-six stop-gap Ryan Johansen, who would later be traded to the Philadelphia Flyers.
The productive postseason stint stirred up optimism that, with more time to foster chemistry with the Avalanche’s other stars, Mittelstadt could easily eclipse the 60-point mark for the first time in his turbulent eight-year NHL career. While Mittelstadt started the 2024-25 campaign off on a strong foot, his production has faltered as the league hits the halfway point of the season.
Mittelstadt tallied six goals and 13 points (on 20% shooting) in Colorado’s first 11 games to rank fourth on the team in scoring at the end of October. In the 32 games since, he’s potted a measly two goals (on 6.5% shooting) and 13 points while averaging 17:29 per game in all situations, significantly down from the 20:07 per game he averaged during his hot start. That puts him at eight goals and 26 points in 43 games on the season (while also carrying a minus-13 rating, the worst mark on the team.
What is particularly damning for Mittelstadt is that his numbers have dropped despite averaging a career-high of 3:01 per game on the power play, much of which time was spent beside the Avalanche’s offensive superstars. It is also puzzling that his on-ice shooting percentage (individual-plus-linemates shooting percentage) is over 14% (four percent higher than it was last season), suggesting that his depressed production isn’t the byproduct of poor puck luck.
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While Mittelstadt’s individual shot rate hasn’t changed much this season (3.83 per-60-minutes at five-on-five) compared to last (3.72 with the Avalanche), the quality of those shots has eroded. The pivot’s individual shot, scoring chance, and high-danger chance generation are all clipping at career lows at five-on-five. He’s not as engaged or confident, and that’s a problem for the would-be Cup contenders.
In his defense, Mittelstadt has often been saddled with a rotating cast of wingers, some of which are better suited for grinding, bottom-six duty. The Avalanche’s injury crisis has seen all four of Jonathan Drouin (missed 33 games), Valeri Nichushkin (22), Ross Colton (17), and Artturi Lehkonen (12) miss more than 10 games through the first half of the season. Given that Hart Trophy frontrunner MacKinnon gets first dibs on having Mikko Rantanen as one of his wingers, Mittelstadt has been dealt an unfortunate hand through little fault of his own.
Avalanche Need More From Mittelstadt to Win 2025 Stanley Cup
The Avalanche will undoubtedly make a move or two before the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline (March 7), but it is unlikely to go far in the playoffs without Mittelstadt making a notable impact in the same vein as Kadri did three years prior. Many would hope Mittelstadt could drive his own line regardless of who his wingers are on a nightly basis, but that is a privilege afforded to probably fewer than 10 teams around the entire league.
The hope is that with healthier and more consistent linemates, the young center will be able to elevate his game when it matters most. If not, the Avalanche will be faced with an uncomfortable discussion next summer about their center depth at a time when the future of three key forwards (Rantanen, Drouin, and Gabriel Landeskog) is uncertain. Buckle up, the next few months will be appointment viewing.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
