The time of NHL projections and prognostications is upon us, with many at The Hockey Writers gazing into our crystal balls to look ahead at what could be to come during the 2025-26 season. When it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Rupert McDonald, Spencer Lazary, and Peter Baracchini have already taken stabs at some bold predictions.
Meanwhile, I will carry over my own Maple Leafs’ outlook from last preseason, where I assessed the point projections laid out by NHL.com’s fantasy hockey staff. Perhaps predictably, the exercise last season yielded a mixed bag of hits and misses. To recap:
- I incorrectly asserted that Auston Matthews would exceed his 110-point projection (he fell well shy with 78 points).
- I correctly suggested William Nylander would fall short of 100 points (he had 84).
- I felt that 95 points for Mitch Marner seemed reasonable (he tallied 102).
- I accurately predicted that John Tavares would top his 71-point projection (he had 74 in 75 games).
- I was doubly wrong in believing that Max Domi would notch 50 points (he had 33) and register a double-digit goal total (he had eight).
- Matthew Knies cruised past his 43-point projection (he had 58), as I said he would.
- NHL.com and I both failed to anticipate Morgan Rielly’s disappointing season, as he fell well short of the 67 points he was projected to score (he would up with 41).
- We were also a little too high on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in his debut season with the Maple Leafs, as he finished with 29 points, below his 38-point projection.
- Finally, I did foresee the challenges inherent for Joseph Woll to reach 33 wins. In what was a very solid season for the netminder, he still only came away with 27.
With all that in mind, let’s move right into a new season of point projections to assess:
Auston Matthews: 91 Points
Last season’s underwhelming output – as Matthews focused on his newfound captaincy and playing more of a two-way game – prompted a dramatic adjustment of the Maple Leafs superstar’s point expectations. NHL.com sees him exceeding the 78 points he delivered in 67 games last season (ideally with better health), but still expects him to fall well short of the 110 they projected for him prior to the 2024-25 campaign.
In truth, it’s practically impossible to predict how Matthews will navigate a future without Marner in tow. On one hand, Marner assisted on 20 of Matthews’ 33 goals last season, so the 28-year-old will certainly feel the void of not having him setting things up. On the other hand, however, he could assume more of an alpha role on the offensive end and see his scoring numbers spike. It’s also worth noting that the early days of training camp seem to be yielding signs of chemistry with new addition Matias Maccelli.
Verdict: It’s tough to call, but Matthews’ ceiling extends well beyond the 91 points being forecast.
William Nylander: 84 Points
For a team facing plenty of uncertainty, the health and stability offered by Nylander is a breath of fresh air. Over the past four seasons, he has missed just one game while delivering between 80 and 98 points each campaign. Last season saw him set a new career-best goal mark (45), but a dip in assists resulted in an 84-point season right in line with his typical production.
So why would NHL.com do anything other than project Nylander to offer more of the same en route to another 84 points? Perhaps Marner’s absence will push the 29-year-old Swede to shoulder more of the offensive load, but he also might simply be what he is heading into his 11th NHL season. And what he is seems to be a reliable point-getter who can be counted upon to be a top-20 scorer in the league.
Verdict: 84 points seems to be right in line with what to expect from the hyper-consistent Nylander.
John Tavares: 72 Points
Tavares’ age-defying, nearly point-per-game renaissance last season turned plenty of heads, but didn’t result in much of a change to his projections. After recording 74 points in 2024-25, NHL.com has him tabbed for 72 points this time around. While duplicating his 0.987 point per game mark may be a tall order, it’s reasonable to expect that the typically healthy 35-year-old won’t miss seven games, the most he’s missed in a season since 2013-14.
We all know that Matthews will be the last player introduced as part of next Wednesday’s home opener and will likely yield a loud ovation. However, let’s hope that Tavares is greeted with a similarly-warm welcome after he followed a resilient season by signing a team-friendly, four-year deal worth $17.5 million to remain in Toronto. Now making just under $4.4 million this season, a 72-point campaign would bring tremendous value based on his cap hit.
Verdict: Signs of decline could be on the horizon for Tavares, but a season in the vicinity of 72 points should still be in the cards.
Matthew Knies: 68 Points
How enviable a position are the Maple Leafs in when it comes to Knies? So much so that the 22-year-old rising star is being projected to notch 68 points – and the projection still feels a little on the low end. After the Phoenix, Arizona native jumped from 35 points to 58 points while almost doubling his goal total, he has the opportunity for another sizable increase once again.
(Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images)
For one thing, Knies should enjoy a near-permanent home alongside Matthews as the top line right winger from the get go. That, alone, should ensure an increase in ice time from the 18:31 he averaged last season. He also promises to be a mainstay on the top power-play unit, particularly with Marner’s departure. If his game can take the next developmental step forward as well, then he shouldn’t have much difficulty blowing past his NHL.com projections for the second season in a row.
Verdict: 68 points seems a little low for the Maple Leafs’ fast-rising superstar.
Matias Maccelli: 50 Points
In three preseason games, Maccelli is already nearly a quarter of the way towards matching his total offensive production from last season as a member of what was then the Utah Hockey Club. That stands as both a credit to how effective he’s been right from the outset of his tenure with the Maple Leafs and an indictment on how poorly last season went for the 24-year-old.
A lower-body injury prior to the Christmas break derailed most of Maccelli’s second half, but even that doesn’t fully explain a campaign that saw him manage just 18 points in 55 games while falling out of favour in Utah. A 50-point projection would indicate some optimism that last season was a fluke, an opinion that has been bolstered amidst the Finnish winger’s impressive preseason showing. Not to pour too much cold water on that theory, but 50 points seems a bit ambitious given Maccelli’s uncertain footing in the top-six.
Verdict: Maccelli’s encouraging preseason notwithstanding, 50 points seems like a tough ask for the newcomer.
Max Domi: 47 Points
Speaking of acting as though 2024-25 didn’t happen, Domi would certainly be happy to wipe the slate clean after his underwhelming 33-point showing last season. It appears that the NHL.com fantasy projectors have already done so, predicting the same 47-point output as he put forth in 2023-24. This, of course, relies on not only a bounce-back season, but also a more prominent role in Marner’s absence and some momentum carrying over from a strong postseason (three goals and seven points in 13 games).
With so many encouraging signs ahead of his 2025-26 season, it’s unfortunate that Domi hasn’t had the opportunity for a better training camp. The 30-year-old was already sidelined with a lower-body injury when his grandfather passed away. While the pain of losing a beloved family member surely continues, there’s now hope that he can turn the page and refocus on a season filled with opportunities.
Verdict: A strong start would go a long way in securing Domi’s place in the lineup and making the 47-point projection a reality.
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Morgan Rielly: 45 Points
When it comes to comeback contenders on the Maple Leafs, no one has been the focus of as much optimism as Rielly. The long-tenured Toronto blue liner reflected with plenty of candor on a disappointing 2024-25 campaign, acknowledging, “My game dropped. I take a lot of pride in my career, and I was really disappointed in myself. That’s a hard thing to admit and hard thing to come to.”
Now, Rielly has the chance to show that he’s put last season firmly in the rearview mirror. For their part, NHL.com doesn’t seem entirely sure that he can do it, offering a 45-point projection that aligns far more closely with last season’s actual 41-point output than the 67 points they projected before his underwhelming campaign or the 58 points he produced in 2023-24. While it’s possible that a full season paired alongside Brandon Carlo offers him more offensive freedom, there simply isn’t a long track record of players bouncing back from down seasons after they hit 30 (Tavares notwithstanding).
Verdict: Rielly may be a trendy pick for a big renaissance this season, but NHL.com’s projection of a modest uptick in production is probably more realistic.
Bobby McMann: 44 Points
At the risk of placing too much pressure on a late-blooming middle-six forward, the Maple Leafs’ fortunes of may wind up at least somewhat intertwined with Bobby McMann‘s play. One of the few depth forwards to make an impact offensively, the 29-year-old posted 20 goals in his first full NHL season. If he continues the same upward progress, he could play a central role in providing some much-needed balanced scoring to the club’s forward ranks.
While McMann made some top-six cameo appearances last season, those 20 goals (and 34 points) came primarily alongside fellow bottom-six forward options, receiving plenty of feeds from the likes of Steven Lorentz and Pontus Holmberg. Slated to at least begin the season on a line with Nicolas Roy, the former Vegas Golden Knight should help offer the necessary stability and play-making in order to foster another statistical jump.
Verdict: McMann looks poised for another leap – and this one could see him push the 50-point plateau.
Last season brought a mixed bag of underperformers and overachievers among the Maple Leafs, at least where the NHL.com projections were concerned. All that amounted to an Atlantic Division title and a trip to Game 7 of the second round in what was arguably the organization’s best showing of the past quarter century. It remains to be seen how the crystal ball fares this season.
