As the Colorado Avalanche are in the dog days of the 2024 NHL offseason, there is no better time to revisit Cale Makar’s career progression and update his résumé for the Hockey Hall of Fame. I last updated Makar’s Hall of Fame case prior to the 2022-23 season, so there are two additional campaigns to add to his application.
Shea Weber (2024) was the only defenseman inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame since the most recent update, while Duncan Keith, Zdeno Chara, and P.K. Subban retired prior to the start of the 2022-23 season. All three are likely to join Weber in the Hall, although Subban only boasts a single Norris Trophy win out of the unofficial criteria.
Let’s dive into how Makar beefed up his Hall of Fame résumé over the past two seasons, and how much more work needs to be done before his case becomes bulletproof in the eyes of the voting committee.
Makar Rebounds With Strong 2023-24 Season
Makar missed 22 games due to injury during the 2022-23 season and posted 66 points (17 goals and 49 assists) in 60 games as he was named a finalist for the 2023 Norris Trophy in what was arguably a down year for the blueliner.
It’s from that foundation that Makar built his impressive 2023-24 campaign. The 25-year-old superstar tallied 21 goals, 69 assists, and 90 points in 77 games while once again finishing as a Norris Trophy finalist behind the Vancouver Canucks’ Quinn Hughes. Makar finished second among defenders in all three main statistical categories, but led his peers when accounting for games played.
While he failed to add to his trophy cabinet, Makar did earn a pair of Second-Team year-end All-Star honors to add to his two First-Team nominations for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.
Before evaluating Makar’s growing case for the Hall of Fame, let’s revisit the list of unofficial criteria which must be met in order for a defenseman to earn induction upon his retirement.
Revisiting the Unofficial Criteria for the Hall of Fame
For a defenseman to be included in this exercise, his playing career must have taken place entirely during the NHL’s modern era (post-1967 expansion). Despite having each played a single season in the pre-expansion era, both Bobby Orr and Serge Savard will be included given their impact on the sport and the defensive position.
Including Orr and Savard, there are 25 defensemen currently in the Hall of Fame who fall under the parameters above and help compile a useful sample of accomplishments with which to evaluate Makar’s career.
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The key criteria used in Hall of Fame discussions are the length of a player’s career, their cumulative offensive output, and the number of individual and team-based awards and accolades. Of the eligible inducted defensemen, most have met or achieved at least two out of five specific individual or team-based milestones over their NHL career: 1,000 games played, 750 points, being named a First-Team NHL All-Star, at least one Norris Trophy, and at least one Stanley Cup.
Of the 25 defensemen, 88 percent (22 of 25) played at least 1,000 games over their career, and 70 percent (18 of 25) accumulated over 750 points in the NHL. Over half (15 of 25) earned at least one Norris Trophy, and just under 80 percent (19 of 25) won a Stanley Cup.
Twenty of the 25 defensemen were named a First-Team All-Star, but a number of the 20 were only named once and one recent inductee (Kevin Lowe) was never named to either of the two All-Star Teams.
In fact, the only criteria that Lowe met were exceeding the 1,000-game threshold, and being part of a Stanley Cup-winning team. Given that the likes of Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, and Paul Coffey bear more responsibility for those Cup wins and considering his lack of any notable individual accolades, his induction is puzzling and could open the door for more borderline cases to be inducted.
Now that a checklist of milestones and awards has been established for induction into the Hall of Fame, let’s appraise Makar’s accomplishments after the 2023-24 season.
Evaluating Makar’s Résumé Following the 2023-24 Season
Looking at Makar’s current résumé, it’s difficult to deny that he is well on his way to earning induction into the Hall of Fame upon retirement and would merit consideration even if he retired today. He’s met three of the five main criteria and the remaining two are just a matter of time and avoiding injury.
| Milestone | Makar | Remaining |
|---|---|---|
| 1,000 Games Played | 315 | 685 |
| 750 Points | 336 | 414 |
| Norris Trophy | Yes | Completed |
| Stanley Cup | Yes | Completed |
| 1st NHL All-Star Team | Yes | Completed |
Of the former Norris Trophy winners that are eligible for induction, only Randy Carlyle (1980-81) remains outside of the Hall of Fame. Including Makar, there are currently 12 Norris winners who are either still active or have yet to pass the three-year waiting period for Hall of Fame eligibility. Judging by their career totals or future trajectory, most if not all of those 12 should be inductees upon retirement.
While it may take another decade or so to see if Makar reaches the 1,000-point or 750-game benchmarks, he can be compared to other legendary defensemen based on his per-game scoring rate.
| Statistic | Career Pace (Per-Game) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.27 | 4th |
| Assists | 0.79 | 3rd |
| Points | 1.07 | 3rd |
| Shots | 2.77 | 18th |
While he still must climb the overall career scoring leaderboards, he sits in the all-time top five for goals, assists, and points per game among all qualified defensemen in the modern era. The only blueliners anywhere near his level on the offensive end in modern NHL history include Orr, Denis Potvin, Paul Coffey, and Ray Bourque. Hughes is tied with Makar for assists-per-game, but lags well behind in goals and points per game.
Assuming Makar produces at the same scoring pace for the next 10 seasons – taking him to age 35 – and plays in 67 games each season (his 82-game pace thus far) we can estimate his potential career totals.
An additional 10 seasons of 67 games each (670 total) multiplied by his career rate of 0.27 goals per game produces an additional 181 career goals to add to his current total of 86, giving us 267 pro-rated tallies. Multiplying 670 games by his career rate of 0.79 assists per game generates 529 additional assists, bringing him to 779 total after including his 250 helpers to date.
Combining those totals produces a career estimate of 1,046 points in 985 games at the age of 35, assuming he makes a conservative rate of 67 appearances per season.
As of the end of the 2023-24 season, 267 hypothetical goals would rank him ninth all-time, 779 assists take him to eighth, and 985 points are good enough for ninth place. Although those estimates bring him into the upper echelon of NHL defensemen, he may blow past those totals if the conditions are right.
First, many of the Hall-of-Fame blueliners have played well into their late-30s and judging by Makar’s skating abilities and offensive awareness, he has the traits required to thrive later in his career. Next is the assumption that he misses an average of 15 games each season for the next 10 campaigns, robbing him of 150 potential outings over that time.
Though it’s true that he has missed significant time through injury during his first five NHL seasons, that is a cautious estimate and there is just as much of a chance that he plays upward of 75 games each season going forward.
While winning the Conn Smythe Trophy is not included in the list of criteria for defensemen, it bears mentioning as it could bolster one’s case. Makar led the 2022 Playoffs in scoring (29 points in 20 games) as the Avalanche won the organization’s third Stanley Cup. His scoring total for that postseason ranks fourth all-time among defenders. He became the 11th defender in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe as the playoff MVP.
Since the Conn Smythe was first awarded in 1965, a defenseman has won the award 12 times, with Orr being the only one to win it on more than one occasion (1970 and 1972). Of the 11 blueliners, eight have been named to the Hall of Fame with Victor Hedman joining Makar as the only active defensemen on that list, although the recently retired Keith should easily earn induction as well.
Makar on Pace for Hall of Fame Induction
After another two seasons, Makar’s case for the Hall of Fame has become undeniable. The only major award he has yet to win is the Hart Trophy, annually given to the league’s most valuable player. Orr and Chris Pronger are the only defensemen to win the award in the NHL’s modern era, with none having done so since Pronger’s win for the 1999-00 season.
Winning the Hart would make his argument for the Hall ironclad, even if he retired early. Makar is unlike any defenseman that the league has seen for some time, and the rest of his story is yet to be told.
Data courtesy of Hockey Reference and the NHL.
