The Colorado Avalanche was one of the busiest teams in the lead-up to the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, bolstering an already championship-worthy roster and addressing significant weak spots in the lineup.
The first move came a week before the deadline, sending enforcer Kurtis MacDermid to the New Jersey Devils for an unsigned prospect and a seventh-round pick in 2024. This deal cleared up nearly $1 million in cap space and nicely set up the Avalanche’s subsequent transactions.
The Avalanche managed to rid themselves of center Ryan Johansen and his $4 million cap hit through 2024-25 as the veteran pivot failed to mesh within the team’s high-tempo system after being acquired this past offseason. In exchange for Johansen and a first-round pick in 2025 (top-10 protected), the Flyers sent back a fifth-round pick in 2026 and right-handed defenseman Sean Walker, who is poised to become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) this summer.
Walker was the Flyers’ most effective blueliner at facilitating defensive zone exits with possession of the puck and completing zone entries by carrying the puck into the offensive zone. The Avalanche needed another reliable defender behind Devon Toews, Cale Makar, Josh Manson, and Samuel Girard, and now can trot out an above-average puck-mover on all three pairs.
The trade with the Flyers left a gap at center and a logjam of defensemen, so it was no surprise to see general manager Chris MacFarland address the longstanding hole at second-line center by trading from a position of need. 22-year-old Bowen Byram—arguably the Avalanche’s second-best defenseman in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final—was traded to the Buffalo Sabres for 25-year-old center Casey Mittelstadt, signaling the end of a tenure marked by concussion issues and inconsistency.
The Avalanche finished their work at the deadline by adding to their depth with trades to bring in a pair of forwards in Brandon Duhaime and Yakov Trenin from the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators, respectively. The end result is a much deeper, well-rounded group. Assuming Gabriel Landeskog returns at some point in the postseason or prospect Nikolai Kovalenko signs in the aftermath of being eliminated from the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) playoffs, it’s also a forward group that is arguably unmatched in the Western Conference.
With that context in mind, let’s look at the current Western Conference playoff picture and where the Avalanche may finish at the end of the regular season.
Central Division Title Still Up for Grabs
With the trade deadline in the rear-view, the Central Division crown remains very much up for grabs. The Avalanche (85 points with 17 games remaining) sit third behind the second-place Winnipeg Jets (85 points with 19 remaining) and the division-leading Dallas Stars (89 points with 16 remaining). It’s a tight race like last season, where Colorado edged out Dallas by a single point to win the division, and it appears a similar margin may separate the trio this season.
The quality of each team’s respective remaining schedule will be a significant deciding factor in the final two months of the season. According to Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule metric (SOS), the Avalanche have the eighth-most difficult remaining schedule down the stretch, with eight of their final 17 games coming against teams ranked 12th or higher in the league standings by points percentage (PTS%).
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In comparison, the Jets and Stars have the 12th and 25th most difficult remaining schedules, respectively. Dallas will see six of their remaining 16 games come against teams ranked 12th or higher, while the Jets will face such a team seven times in their final 19 games.
Both the Stars and Jets have an advantage over the Avalanche over the final stretch. The Stars will face a much weaker collection of opponents. At the same time, the Jets hold multiple games in hand on their two division rivals and could be as many as two points clear of second place if they capitalize on those additional opportunities.
Fortunately, the Avalanche remain in control of their own destiny. The Avalanche, Jets, and Stars will play one another once more before the season is up, giving each club the opportunity to directly take points off of their rivals.
The Avalanche should fancy themselves against any first-round opponent. Still, it would be beneficial to earn home-ice advantage through at least the first two rounds, given the discrepancy in their results at home compared to on the road. They own a 26-6-0 record and .813 PTS% at home (the best in the NHL) but are only 14-14-5 away from the friendly confines of Ball Arena, ranking 20th overall by PTS%.
Western Conference’s Top Seed Yet to Be Determined
Just as the Central Division standings remain in flux, so does the Western Conference alignment. The Vancouver Canucks currently sit atop the West with 89 points with 17 games remaining, only four ahead of the Avalanche and Jets and two ahead of the Stars.
The Canucks place atop the conference is far from assured despite their torrid start to the season, with the Jets holding three games in hand and with three total head-to-head matchups coming against Winnipeg, Dallas, and Colorado. They also have the 16th-most difficult schedule and will face five total matchups against the Edmonton Oilers, Vegas Golden Knights, and Los Angeles Kings down the stretch. A 5-0 beatdown of the Jets on Mar. 9 gave the Canucks’ conference title hopes a boost, however.
| Team | Points | Games Left | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canucks | 91 | 16 | 16th |
| Stars | 89 | 16 | 25th |
| Jets | 85 | 19 | 12th |
| Avalanche | 85 | 17 | 8th |
While winning the Central would guarantee the Avalanche home-ice advantage through the first two rounds, finishing with the best record in the West would extend the benefit of home-ice through the Western Conference Final.
Though the Avalanche have been significantly better at home, their three biggest conference rivals are all equally effective at home and on the road. Home ice would mean much more to the Avalanche and could mean the difference between another early playoff exit and adding to the legacy of the current core.
Avalanche Can Still Win the Presidents’ Trophy
Beyond the Central Division and Western Conference races, the 2023-24 Presidents’ Trophy race—awarded to the team with the NHL’s best record—has yet to see a clear favorite emerge. The top 10 teams in the overall standings are separated by 13 points and the top seven by only seven, so anyone in that group could surge ahead with a hot end to the season.
| Team | Points | Games Left | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Panthers | 92 | 17 | 5th |
| 2. Canucks | 91 | 16 | 16th |
| 3. Bruins | 91 | 16 | 6th |
| 4. Stars | 89 | 16 | 25th |
| 5. Rangers | 86 | 19 | 11th |
| 6. Jets | 85 | 19 | 12th |
| 7. Avalanche | 85 | 17 | 8th |
| 8. Hurricanes | 82 | 19 | 17th |
| 9. Maple Leafs | 82 | 18 | 7th |
| 10. Oilers | 79 | 19 | 19th |
Unlike the Western Conference race, the Avalanche will not have as many chances to take points off their rivals directly. The three remaining games against the Canucks, Jets, and Stars aside, the Avalanche only have four other games among teams in the top 10, with three coming against the Oilers and none against either the Florida Panthers or the Boston Bruins. In this case, they must hope the other challengers slip up and allow them to gain ground.
Despite currently holding the league’s best record, the Panthers’ grip on the top spot is tenuous at best. Seven of their final 17 games come against teams in the top 10, with two massive matchups against the Bruins still to come. Those two games could not only decide the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference but which team enters the 2024 NHL Playoffs with the best record and has a home-ice advantage guaranteed through the Stanley Cup Final.
If it weren’t for three notable stretches where they failed to gain points this season, the Avalanche might have emerged into a post-deadline world in which they led the Presidents’ Trophy race. They only won two of seven games from Oct. 26 to Nov. 11, three out of nine from Nov. 30 to Dec. 16, and three out of 10 from Feb. 5 to Feb. 24.
Those games may seem irrelevant at the time, but a lot of dropped points could mean the difference between home-ice advantage against difficult opponents and starting every series on the road, where they’ve been a middling outfit this season.
Whether or not you believe that the Presidents’ Trophy curse is real, every recent champion finished fairly high in the standings. Nine out of the past 10 Stanley Cup winners finished 10th or better in the league standings, seven out of 10 finished seventh or better, and five out of 10 finished fifth or better. The Avalanche currently sit sixth, aligning them with the recent trend of championship clubs.
Avalanche Capable of Winning Second Stanley Cup of MacKinnon Era
Even if the Avalanche doesn’t end the regular season atop either the Central Divison, the Western Conference, or the league, there is no doubt that this is a championship-caliber roster. The front office was aggressive and plugged holes that threatened to derail another promising campaign and now look poised to seriously challenge for the second Stanley Cup of the Nathan MacKinnon era.
As of games played on Mar. 9, MoneyPuck’s prediction and projection model gives the Avalanche a 17.9% chance to finish first in the division, 33.9% to finish second, and 45.1% to finish third, but they still have the fourth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup (9.1%). If they win any of the division, conference, or Presidents’ Trophy and earn home-ice advantage, those odds will only go up.
Though the end of the season can sometimes feel like a slog, there’s still a whole lot to play for before the 2024 NHL Playoffs. The Avalanche better be ready.
Data courtesy of AllThreeZones and the NHL. Statistics are accurate as of games played on Mar. 9.
