We have our first big trade of NHL draft week. The Colorado Avalanche have found their second-line center, acquiring Ryan Johansen from the Nashville Predators in exchange for the negotiating rights of free agent Alex Galchenyuk. The Predators also retained 50 percent of the remaining two years of Johansen’s contract, which had a cap hit of $8 million.
Though J.T. Compher had a solid year as the Avalanche’s second-line center, the team lacked center depth after losing Nazem Kadri to the Calgary Flames in free agency last summer. Can Johansen take over that spot behind Nathan MacKinnon? And what do the Predators get out of this deal? Here are trade grades for each side.
Avalanche Gamble on Johansen Bounce Back
One of the reasons the Avalanche lost to the Seattle Kraken in the first round of this year’s playoffs is they didn’t have enough scoring depth down the middle. Johansen finished the 2022-23 season with 12 goals and 28 points in 55 games — a 42-point pace over 82 games. He did total 26 goals and 63 points a season ago, but that was partly due to an inflated shooting percentage of 22 percent.
The question for the Avalanche is, which Johansen will they get? His 63-point season a year ago was an outlier when looking at his production since 2019-20. And when looking at his underlying numbers, it’s certainly a mixed bag. His expected goals share is just below break-even over the last three years, and the Preds have gotten out-chanced when’s he been on the ice.
Related: NHL Trade Bait List for the 2023 Offseason
At the same time, he’s been the Predators’ first-line center for quite some time, a position that’s probably a step up above where he should be playing at this point in his career. The Avalanche are hoping that a lesser role against softer competition will help him bounce back. But when looking at his microstats, I’m not sure it’s a given.
Johansen was one of the worst rush players in the league this past season, ranking in the one percentile in zone entries and rush shots. He was in the seventh percentile in rush offense and ranked in the second percentile in zone exits. For a team that likes to play with pace off the rush, that might be a problem in Colorado.
Fortunately for the Avalanche, they gave up nothing to acquire Johansen; Galchenyuk spent most of 2022-23 in the AHL with the Colorado Eagles, where he had 42 points in 42 games. The Predators retaining 50 percent to get his cap hit down to $4 million also helps matters, but will he be an upgrade over Kadri? That seems unlikely, and it’s even fair to question how much better he’ll be over Compher. The bet is that a new role with reduced minutes will help him, but there’s certainly a risk that Johansen’s best days are behind him.
Avalanche grade: B-
Predators Clear Cap Space
There isn’t too much to say about the Predators’ side of the deal. They wanted to clear Johansen’s cap hit, even if it meant eating 50 percent for two years. New general manager Barry Trotz seemed to realize Johansen’s play was worth nowhere near his $8 million cap hit. Perhaps Galchenyuk still has something to offer since he was a point-per-game player in the AHL, but the Predators valued the cap space most of all.
So what comes next for Trotz and the Predators? Trading Johansen’s contract gives them $19,544,691 in cap space, even after retaining 50 percent. There aren’t many noteworthy free-agent centers available, so the trade market makes the most sense if Trotz is looking for a first-line center. Could he swing for the fences if Elias Lindholm is available and the Flames deal him? What about Mark Scheifele? Time will tell, but Trotz wouldn’t free up that much cap space if he didn’t have other irons in the fire.
Overall, it’s a good move that gives the Predators cap flexibility to help improve the roster. You could argue they should’ve gotten a bit more since they retained 50 percent on a deal with more than one year remaining. But the cap space alone should be valuable enough.
Predators Grade: B+
