Let’s start our 2024 Columbus Blue Jackets’ Summer Series with a question. Which is hotter? The heat that has gripped Central Ohio in recent days or the heat surrounding the team’s goaltending going into 2024-25?
If you said the former, that’s a good answer. It’s felt like over 100 degrees with the humidity. Even the shortest walks result in being drenched in sweat. This summer has been a hot one.
But yet, the heat surrounding the Blue Jackets’ goaltending situation may be hotter. When GM Don Waddell comes out on record and says “you can’t trade that contract” when referencing Elvis Merzlikins, that sends a direct message to the goaltender. If this is going to work out, it’s on him to make it work. The heat is on in that sense.
With that as a backdrop, welcome to our 2024 Blue Jackets’ Summer Series. The team has gone through several changes at key positions especially closer to the top. We’re going to spend the time between now and the start of training camp evaluating different areas of the team and how these changes could affect them going into the new season.
Today, we try to answer the question will Dean Evason’s structure revive the goaltending situation? The short answer is it better.
Resetting Goaltending Situation
A quick refresher before we dive in. Although Merzlikins was better in 2023-24, it was just a slight improvement from a forgettable 2022-23. He is way underperforming his contract which has three seasons left at a lofty $5.5 million per season price tag.
The Blue Jackets found themselves in a tough spot. Teams are not trading for Merzlikins in this current situation. Most teams don’t even have $5.5 million in available cap space let alone taking that on for three more seasons.
Buying Merzlikins out could have been an option. But then consider he would have been on the books for six years. But then what does the goaltending look like in a buyout? That would point to a tandem of Daniil Tarasov and Jet Greaves. While there is upside to each of them, throwing them out as 1-2 now would be super risky given Tarasov’s injury history and Greaves’ limited experience.
With these available options, the Blue Jackets opted to keep Merzlikins. This means that they have to make this situation work. Enter Evason. The team hopes the new coach can revive the goaltending situation. Given all circumstances, it’s among the worst situations in the league based on dollars and performance.
How Evason Can Impact Goaltending
Although the Blue Jackets’ goaltending situation looks bleak, it can be fixed in its current situation. It would take a lot of work from everyone involved but there is a path forward. To put this in perspective, consider Evason’s time with the Wild.
Evason’s teams were never the most talented in comparison to other teams. They certainly had some elite talent and good players around such as Kirill Kaprizov. But the hallmark of Evason’s teams were the structure they played with.
Going back to Evason’s last full season with the Wild in 2022-23, that team finished third in the NHL in save percentage at .919. The tandem that season? Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson. That .919 was elevated by Gustavsson’s incredible .931 in 39 games. This points to both the goaltender having an amazing season and the team in front giving him the best possible chance to succeed. Considering Gustavsson’s career save percentage is .912 and was .899 last season, it’s fair to conclude the impact of the overall team structure of the Wild had a part in this.
It’s also important to understand how Evason views goaltending. To him, there is no set rotation. He truly takes it game-by-game and evaluates all circumstances in the moment. If one goalie plays well, there’s a good chance he plays the next game too especially if it’s not back-to-back.
Under Evason, the only game that matters is the next one. As we’ll come to see later in this series, that saying will apply to the rest of the team too. If you are Merzlikins or Tarasov, this should be seen as a welcome opportunity. If they play well, they could play a lot.
Evason’s Structure
This is one of the biggest areas where the Blue Jackets could look much different in 2024-25. Evason’s teams tend to play low-event hockey. While they took fewer shots, they allowed fewer shots as well in comparison to league average.
This points to a couple of things. First, it emphasizes the importance of the defensive zone. Players will have to buy into the system in order to succeed. This means knowing where to go within the structure to make it difficult on teams to shoot on net.
The Blue Jackets have leaked shots on goal and goals against more than the Titanic the last couple of seasons. This will be a welcomed change and potentially a big one that could filter down to Merzlikins and Tarasov. They would see fewer shots on average. The onus now falls on them to make the saves they’re expected to make and perhaps a few more.
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And then second, it emphasizes the importance of what to do after taking care of their own zone. They will have to be opportunistic with their chances when they’re available. These Blue Jackets have young, talented forwards along with some experience veterans who can score. They’ll now have to find ways to do that with not as many chances.
The Wild have been good at making the playoffs with teams that weren’t the most talented. They made up for their lack of talent with structure and a complete team buy-in. This approach limited chances against which led to the goalies needing to make fewer saves.
Remember Merzlikins has had previous success under a coach who had a similar style of structure. Under John Tortorella, Merzlikins posted by far his best-career numbers. Five shutouts in an eight-start stretch is on his resume. He will now have a chance to find himself again within a low-event structure.
If the Blue Jackets want to find success in 2024-25, it’s going to have to start with a massive improvement in net. The team hopes that Evason’s structure can be the gateway to better play for whoever patrols the crease. The opportunity is there, but only if everyone on the team buys in.