Blue Jackets Still Have A Lot to Figure Out This Season

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are off to a 5-5-1 start in 2024-25. We’d be willing to bet if this record was offered to you at the start of the season given all of the circumstances surrounding the team, you would have taken it immediately.

The team is trying to do the unthinkable in playing without Johnny Gaudreau. They’re missing their captain in Boone Jenner who isn’t expected to play until March or later. Kent Johnson doesn’t need surgery but will be out for a while yet. Many folks felt that it would be a massive struggle this season.

To their credit, the Blue Jackets have surprised some folks. Thanks to some inspired play and some good performances, the team was able to start 5-3-1 while dominating a few teams. We’re willing to bet no one had the Blue Jackets going 3-0 against the Avalanche, Maple Leafs and Oilers while scoring six on each of them.

Then there was these past two games. A harsh reality hit the Blue Jackets while being outscored 13-4 by two of the best teams in the NHL in the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals. It shows while there has been plenty of good things in the early going, the team still has a lot to figure out as well. Let’s look at the state of the team in early November at the 11-game mark.

Strong Offense

Although this has come back to Earth a little thanks to their last two games, the Blue Jackets’ offense is still a strong point in the new season. With 39 goals for in the first 11 games, their 3.55 goals per game ranks 11th in the NHL.

Pacing the way for the Blue Jackets is winger Kirill Marchenko. He has four goals and 12 points in his first 11 games which is about a 90-point pace in the early going. His linemate Sean Monahan is right behind him with 11 points and leads the team in goals with six.

Alongside Yegor Chinakhov when he’s up there, this trio has been one of the best lines in the NHL in 2024-25. They have a combined 13-18-31 in 11 games. Not only are they producing, they’ve had their way for the most part possessing the puck too which has allowed them the chance to post these numbers.

Columbus Blue Jackets Starting Lineup
The Blue Jackets have enjoyed a strong offensive start in 2024-25. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The other part of the offensive puzzle is defenseman Zach Werenski. He’s produced 3-6-9 in 11 games which works out to a 67-point pace over the season. His health and availability has made a massive difference.

Not only is Werenski producing offensive numbers, he’s become a workhorse in the two-way game. As of Sunday, his 24:50 average ice time ranks 7th in the NHL. He is a play driver which helps spark their offense. If he’s quiet, there’s a good chance the rest of the Blue Jackets are quiet too.

The key to the Blue Jackets’ offense is their forecheck. If that’s on, they thrive on the counterattack with speed. A big change from recent seasons has been their ability to go north quicker. Once the get the puck, it’s quick passes north instead of a bunch of east and west.

When the forecheck is on, games like Colorado, Toronto and Edmonton happen. When it’s not, games like Winnipeg and Washington happen.

Defense Showing Signs, But…

The Blue Jackets are outscoring teams on average. That in itself is a marked improvement. But the goal differential is a +1 for the season after losing by four and five respectively.

Simply put, while there has been noticeable progress, these Blue Jackets still have a lot to figure out on this end of the ice. Averaging 3.45 goals against per game will eventually catch up to them if they don’t continue to improve.

The Blue Jackets have shown what they can do at times. They held the Maple Leafs to two, the Oilers to one (without Connor McDavid) and got a shutout of the Islanders.

Like their offense, their defense is predicated on their aggressiveness and their forecheck. In other words, their ability to dictate the terms will determine their success.

The Blue Jackets are built to play from ahead. That’s the importance of playing this kind of aggressive system. Playing from ahead allows them to stay within their system. We all saw what happened when they had to play from behind. They played right into their opponent’s hands.

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The issue here that needs rectified ultimately is consistency. Yes, every team strives to find that consistency. Yet their record suggests some great nights and some awful nights. That usually results in a .500 record.

We mentioned Werenski earlier and how he drives the play. His defensive play has gotten a lot better in this part of his career. Playing with Ivan Provorov as the top pair has been good on most nights.

The second pair of Jake Christiansen and Damon Severson has been a mixed bag. They’re either great or awful. The third pair is in a rotation and very much a work in progress.

The Blue Jackets are still learning the details of Dean Evason’s system. While the players at large have loved the changes, they’re showing they need to tighten up their details. Don’t be surprised if you see Monday’s practice in Columbus focusing on those details. They’re on pace to allow 283 goals this season. That has to come down as this season goes on.

Goaltending

One of the big keys to how this season was going to go for the Blue Jackets lies in net. Would the number-one rise up and establish themselves?

In the first 11 games, it’s been Daniil Tarasov with six starts and Elvis Merzlikins with five, an almost even split. Tarasov got the start on the second half of back-to-back in Washington meaning each goalie got five starts in the first 10 games.

How do the numbers look?

  • Merzlikins: 2-3-0 record. 2.86 goals-against average with a .907 save percentage.
  • Tarasov: 3-2-1 record. 4.02 goals-against average with an .860 save percentage.

The surface numbers suggest Merzlikins has been the better goalie so far. The advanced numbers suggest the same. According to moneypuck.com, in terms of goals saved above expected:

  • Merzlikins: Allowed 14 goals in 13.27 expected goals. The -0.7 goals saved above expected ranks 29th in the NHL among goalies with at least five games played.
  • Tarasov: Allowed 24 goals in 19.65 expected goals. The -4.4 goals saved above expected ranks 45th in the NHL among goalies with at least five games played. That’s also the fourth worst in the NHL with only Stuart Skinner, Connor Ingram and Alexandar Georgiev behind him.
  • For comparison sake, Tarasov finished last year with a goals saved above expected at 0.0 in 24 games. Merzlikins was at -6.3 in 41 games. Small sample size alert. Jet Greaves in nine games had a +3.9 goals saved above expected. All three will be on one-way contracts next season.

Based on the above, Merzlikins has played better while Tarasov has played much worse. Both have plenty of room to be better as the season goes on. But it is the improvement of Merzlikins that has been most notable in the early going.

Here are a few trends we will be watching in the month of November for the Blue Jackets.

  • With Merzlikins showing he’s been the better goalie, will the starts work out that way? We would expect him to get the nod Tuesday night in San Jose and then see where it all goes.
  • Can the offense keep up their current pace? Some regression was expected based on shooting percentage. The last two games showed that.
  • The Blue Jackets are allowing under 30 shots per game on average early. Can they keep that up? That number has gone from 34.4 last season to 29.2 this season, a five-shot per game drop.
  • Adam Fantilli has six points in his first 11 games. Are we getting closer to the breakout? Remember he has yet to play one cumulative full season. It might not be right away but the right steps are being taken in practice. He’s still learning the league.

In all, it’s been a pleasant surprise to see the Blue Jackets do well offensively while dominating a few teams along the way. It shows that Evason’s presence has been welcomed with open arms. But they still have a lot of questions to answer. Let’s see what November has in store for them.