The NHL All-Star Break has come and gone. With the break now in the rearview mirror, it’s time to review what the fans and St. Louis Blues writers of The Hockey Writers have to say about the current state of the team. The writing staff had plenty of time to mull over their answers. Let’s see if time has changed their opinions about the current state of the franchise.
Grade the Blues’ Performance at the All-Star Break
- Ethan Carter: D – It’s been bad. They have finally found consistency when it comes to poor play. It would be an F if they were bad enough to be in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, but that would oddly be better than where they are now.
- Marcus Ashpaugh: D – This team has a lot more talent than what they’ve shown before the break. There have been stretches of good-to-great hockey, but far too many stretches of terrible, almost unwatchable hockey. There’s enough offensively to be a competitive team, but everything related to the team defense has been disastrous. Unfortunately, they are too bad to make the playoffs, but probably too talented (at the moment) to be in the running for a top-five pick.
- Stephen Ground: F
- Mike Meyer: D – I’ll have to go with D here. The Blues have been good in stretches, but downright dreadful in others. The number of empty-net goals allowed, backdoor passes that lead to goals against, and poor special teams have pushed this team to one that has become almost unrecognizable. Heading into the break, they have a .480 points percentage, minus-31 goal differential, 22.9% power play, and 76.2% penalty kill. This is a far cry from the Stanley Cup-winning team that fans saw only a few seasons ago.
- Fan Vote: D
Blues Team MVP Candidate Thus Far
- Ethan: Jordan Kyrou – He has been the best scorer and offensive player on a team that has played bad defense. Thomas and Buchnevich deserve props, but Kyrou has been good after a slow start.
- Marcus: Pavel Buchnevich – He’s a point-per-game player with 38 points in 38 games and is tied for the team lead with Jordan Kyrou in power play (PP) points with 17. His 20.8 shooting percentage (S%) leads the club and his 19:28 average time on ice (ATOI) leads all Blues forwards. He’s on both the power play and penalty kill, and on a tram with some terrible defensive numbers, he’s only a minus-1. He’s been their best-performing player all season long.
- Stephen G: I honestly believe the Blues’ MVP is Calle Rosen. The Blues are 17-14-1 with him in the lineup, and 6-9-2 without him. I don’t think he’s a game-changer or that he’s better than any of the candidates above on this list, but I think it is inexcusable that he would ever be left out of the lineup the way he has played this year, and I think he deserves more recognition.
- Mike: Robert Thomas – It has become noticeable when the team’s first-line center is not in the lineup. He has played in 48 of 51 games this season, scoring 12 goals and 43 points, good for second on the team. He is averaging just over 19 minutes of time on ice per game, second among all forwards, and leads the team in faceoffs won with 409, 141 ahead of team captain, Ryan O’Reilly.
- Fan Vote: Buchnevich
Confidence in General Manager Doug Armstrong and Front Office (1-5 Scale)
- Ethan: 3 – I feel confident with his overall trade record, but a worry still creeps in that he could hold onto a rental that he shouldn’t. His management since the Cup win in 2019 has been wildly questionable though.
- Marcus: 3 – It can’t be a four or five simply because they constructed this roster. The team is talented but is massively underperforming. Having so many veterans locked in for the next three to six seasons with no trade clauses (NTC) is troublesome on a bad team, as they’re essentially married to these players for the duration of their deals. With the cap not going up much and the team already too close to the cap, Doug Armstrong has backed himself into a corner in terms of constructing a competitive roster in the coming seasons.
- Stephen: 4 – I have a lot of confidence in Armstrong to handle the situation he’s now in. His kryptonite has always been contract extensions. But hopefully (unfortunately) he’s done most of the damage there already. But as far as making winning trades and drafting well, I think the current front office has shown time and again that they can handle those aspects of team-building.
- Mike: 3 – The roster construction, contracts handed out, no-trade clauses, and trades made have all come with Armstrong at the helm. There is no doubt that he wishes that he and his team would not be in this situation. However, he has dug this hole for himself and will be responsible for digging himself out. We have seen him work some magic before in the past. He will need to make some difficult decisions if he intends to keep the franchise afloat and playoff contenders moving forward.
- Fan Vote: 3
Confidence in Head Coach Craig Berube and Coaching Staff (1-5 Scale)
- Ethan: 3 – While I don’t think Craig Berube is the issue overall, he hasn’t helped much this season. I think they need to look elsewhere on the back end with Mike Van Ryn, as his defensive unit has been bad this season and the past couple (personnel issues too). Overall, I am not ready to get rid of Berube yet.
- Marcus: 4 – I don’t think Berube and his staff have lost the locker room at all. Is it tough to continually come up with reasons for the team’s on-ice struggles? Absolutely. But I don’t believe the majority of the struggles this season have been due to coaching.
- Stephen: 2 – If you had just said Berube, I probably would have put this at a three. But I think it’s clear there needs to be some changes at least at the assistant level. Van Ryn isn’t working. Craig McTavish clearly hasn’t helped the special teams. Losing Jim Montgomery and watching him have so much success in Boston has been tough. I’m not absolving Berube of blame, but I think the assistants are more the problem than the head coach.
- Mike: 3 – This was a very difficult question to gauge. For the most part, Berube has done a lot of things well this season and has recognized when players need to be moved up and down the lineup and adjustments that need to be made in-game. However, his supporting cast does not seem to be doing him any favors. Whether he decides to keep his players in the same system all season long or plans to change it after the break is yet to be seen. He could very likely be a casualty if the team continues to miss and fails to live up to expectations. One thing’s for sure, the coaching staff is missing Montgomery.
- Fan Vote: 3
Who is Responsible For the Team’s Placement in the Standings?
- Ethan: Players – I think it’s a little bit of everyone. The coaching hasn’t been great and the roster is flawed, but a lot of players have struggled this season. Players with big contracts like Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, and others have been bad.
- Marcus: Players – More specifically, the defense. If you’ve watched the Blues much this season, you’ll see how routinely they find themselves out of place defensively – generally leading to easy scoring chances via backdoor passes or shots from a vacated empty slot. Overall, the team defense has been a mess.
- Stephen: Armstrong – The players the Blues have aren’t playing well enough. But anyone who wasn’t an Armstrong apologist (and, unfortunately, there were many of those) knew this team was fundamentally worse coming into the season than it was last season. If the Blues win out, getting 66 of 66 possible remaining points, they’ll finish with 111, two more than they had at the end of last season. That’s completely unacceptable. And that starts with the front office.
- Mike: Armstrong – As mentioned earlier, Armstrong is the top reason for the roster creation and the state of the roster. While the players have not lived up to expectations this season, we may be seeing a number of players regress to the mean and play like their career averages suggest they should. A primary example of this is the production of Ivan Barbashev. While his 26 goals and 60 points in 81 games last season were truly remarkable, it was highly unlikely we would see it again. If the above-average production from a majority of his players convinced him this could be the new norm, fans may want to find shelter for what may come on March 3.
- Fan Vote: Armstrong
Can Berube Do Anything Differently?
- Ethan: I wouldn’t mind seeing him bench some players, but the defensive structure could use some tweaking. But as I said earlier, the personnel is a huge issue too. Krug/Faulk have struggled, Parayko/Nick Leddy have been bad since they acquired Leddy, and they refuse to give Calle Rosen the minutes he’s earned.
- Marcus: Change the defensive structure and start benching players regardless of salary – I’m going to cheat on this one and give two answers. Without having more insight into Berube’s preferred defensive scheme, anyone can see that what they’ve been doing hasn’t been working in the slightest. But even if he does alter the scheme, Berube still has to have his guys execute on the ice. Players like Parayko, Leddy, Krug, and Faulk are being paid very well but aren’t doing much to justify their pay cheques on a nightly basis. It might be time to send a message to any one of them via a healthy scratch.
RELATED: Blues Must Make Trades Now, But Reunions Are Possible
- Stephen: Can I pick more than one? Again I think Berube is far from blameless. Rosen needs to be playing every game. Nobody deserves a spot just because they have a big contract. The team doesn’t look ready for most games. They’ve allowed three-plus goals more times this season than I’ve taken a breath. Everyone bears plenty of responsibility. The tendency for some people to absolve Berube completely is strange to me.
- Mike: Start benching players – It’s unlikely that he can do more with what he has at this point, but if there is one area of the team that has suffered more, it’s the team’s defense. As many may know, this is an area where the Blues have a surplus and an area that could use some tough love. Benching players like Parayko, who has not lived up to his top-two defenseman projection could help. However, treating him like he is more of a player than he is capable of and benching him for not living up to those expectations is unjust. Nevertheless, there have been games where he has played his way to the press box and it would not have been a surprise if that had occurred.
- Fan Vote: Start Benching Players
Should the Blues Work to Re-Sign Vladimir Tarasenko?
- Ethan: No – he’s not going to re-sign and he looks checked out right now. Getting a quality return for him is key.
- Marcus – No – This ship has sailed. Even if the Blues were contending and Vladimir Tarasenko was having another 70-80 point season, there’s been too much said already about him wanting out. He appears to be checked out at times on the ice while it seems like the Blues play better and more complete games when he’s been injured and out of the lineup.
With Tarasenko: 14-21-3 (.459 P%)
Without Tarasenko: 9-4-0 (.692 P%)
- Stephen: No – Absolutely, 100 percent not. I love Tarasenko, but the time for him to leave is now. He doesn’t want to be here. It’s apparent from the way he’s playing. Armstrong made a catastrophically bad mistake by not trading him this summer when his value was maximal. But now, they still need to get the most out of what they can by trading him before the deadline and washing their hands of the star player.
- Mike – No – The time has come to move on from Tarasenko. Everyone was thrilled to see his rebound tour, proving he was healthy after his three offseason shoulder surgeries and can continue to score with the best of them once again. However, it is highly unlikely that he will re-sign with the Blues and Armstrong needs to retain assets from his departure (from ‘Blues’ Tarasenko set for 3rd shoulder surgery, out 5 months,’ USA Today, Aug 26, 2020).
- Fan Vote – No
Should the Blues Work to Re-sign Ryan O’Reilly?
- Ethan: No — I’m in between on this one, but I’d rather get a good trade return on him. He has struggled this season and if he doesn’t take a discount, it doesn’t make much sense overall.
- Marcus: No – Better put, my answer is “not right now”. If they can flip Ryan O’Reilly for value this season, they absolutely have to do it for the health of the franchise. Once the offseason comes around, then I would entertain re-signing him to a fair deal if he’s on the market. But I would wait until that time.
- Stephen: I would say “maybe” if that was an option. I think Armstrong should have a frank conversation with O’Reilly and say, “We love you. We want you to be our captain. But we would not be shepherding the future of the franchise if we don’t maximize this opportunity at the deadline. If you want to stay here, and want to be part of a competitive team going forward, we need to trade you now and potentially re-sign you in the offseason.”
There’s no reason that they can’t have that frank conversation and try to negotiate with him in the offseason. Of course, that’s going to make it harder to keep him. But it’s not worth keeping him if you lose the potential value you’d get at the deadline. - Mike – Yes – This was another tough case. Looking over the franchise’s depth at center, it is difficult to see quality centermen. As important as it would be to keep the depth at the position, it also comes with a price tag and limit associated with it. If the Blues can retain O’Reilly for around $5 million per season, I would consider that a win. It is unlikely that he would return for anything lower than this dollar amount as the veteran forward and team captain still has plenty of tread left on the tires.
- Fan Vote: 50/50
What is the Team’s Most Glaring Need?
- Ethan: B — It’s not possible with the contract situation, but overhauling the defense would go a long way in fixing this team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them explore the trade market on a number of defensemen this summer (Krug and Parayko).
- Marcus – Overhaul on defense – As I stated previously, the team defense has been the Blues’ most glaring hole this season. Yes, the goaltending could be better as well, but a lot of that has to do with the play in front of him.
- Stephen: The glaring need is the one that’s almost impossible to solve. The defense is completely broken. But they aren’t going to be able to fix it for a long time with the contract structure. Still, it’s inexplicable that Van Ryn is still coaching this unit. It’s two straight seasons of total failure.
- Mike – Overhaul on defense. This is a glaring need at this point for the franchise. As of this writing, the Blues currently have three defensemen signed for $6.5 million, and five with some version of a full or modified no-trade clause. The combined $27 million currently listed on the active roster is entirely too expensive for a team needing to re-sign valuable contributors at the forward position.
- Fan Vote – Overhaul on defense
Long-Term Contract Buyer’s Remorse
- Ethan: It was easy to answer this one. There’s an argument for Jordan Binnington or Krug, but the Parayko deal is horrible. It’s far too much term and too high of an average annual value (AAV).
- Marcus: Parayko – This might have been the easiest question to answer. Since signing his extension, Parayko has been both hurt and severely underperforming. There was a time when he appeared to be worth the money, as he was one of the key factors in Armstrong letting Alex Pietrangelo walk. But since that time, it’s been all bad money.
- Stephen: If we have to pick one, it’s obviously Parayko. But all of these contracts are bad. The least objectionable are Schenn and Faulk. Both players are fine. But the Blues could be paying them less and the no-trade clauses are obnoxious. When the cap starts to go up, these contracts will look less and less bad, but the players will also age and get worse.
With all that said, Parayko’s stank when he signed it, it stinks now, and it’s only going to stink worse as we go on. People were furious that The Athletic’s Dom L. ranked it as one of the worst ten contracts in the league this summer, but he is certainly looking vindicated right now. Parayko is a black hole offensively and suspect defensively. That makes him more like a third-pairing defender than a first. And the Blues are paying him like a top-pairing blueliner through the end of the decade. Awful. - Mike – Parayko – This was a tough decision. We got to see a valuable contributor to the team during the Stanley Cup run on a second-pairing with Jay Bouwmeester. Once he ascended to the top-pairing, he regressed beyond his normal level of play and became almost a replacement-level player. With Krug, his contract has become too expensive at this point with someone like Scott Perunovich waiting in the wings that plays a similar style of hockey for over $5 million less.
- Fan Vote – Parayko
It appears fans and the writers are singing the same note at this point in time. Time will tell if Blues Nation will be in sync once more after the trade deadline passes and whether players are traded or retained. One thing is for certain, there has been a collective groan over the team’s defense that was once among the NHL’s elite, but has now fallen to mediocre at best.
Thanks for participating in the survey, Blues fans.
