The Buffalo Sabres had a lot of question marks heading into this season. Would they make the playoffs for the first time in 12 years after coming short by one point in 2022-23? To do that, the Sabres needed some growth from their young players.
Players like JJ Peterka, Casey Mittelstadt, and rookie Zach Benson were all guys who had the potential to make or break the season. At 18, Benson passed his test with flying colors, scoring seven points in his first 17 games. He’s found chemistry with Peterka, who is currently on pace to nearly double his career-high in points.
Mittelstadt has been arguably the Sabres’ best player this season. He leads the team in points and has also improved his defensive game. Despite all the young middle six players having so much success, the Sabres have a feeble 11-14-2 record. The team’s top players have failed to live up to expectations, and they’ve negated any positive steps taken by some of their breakout players.
Jeff Skinner‘s Defensive Struggles
As one of the few veteran forwards in the Sabres’ core, Jeff Skinner needs to play a more responsible defensive game. Buffalo has the youngest team in the NHL, and many of the Sabres players are still figuring out how to play defense. Skinner’s inability to provide a solid two-way game to the top six has been crippling, given the lack of experienced players. He ranks dead last on the team in goals against and expected goals against per hour.
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From a defensive perspective, I don’t think it’s much of an exaggeration to say he has been one of the worst top-six forwards in the NHL. For Skinner to have the worst defensive season of his career at a time like this, when the young players need someone to help provide stability, has been a massive blow. He can still put the puck in the net, but he hasn’t been the player they’ve needed him to be.
Dylan Cozen’s Lack of Finish
It has been a strange season for Dylan Cozens so far. His production has taken a massive dip compared to last season. He got his nose busted in a fight, and no matter how many prime scoring chances he generates, he can’t seem to put the puck in the net. His frustrating season has been a major issue for Buffalo, but I think he is one of the better candidates to turn things around. Last season, he had a shooting percentage of 14.19; this season, he is shooting at a career-low 4.65.
Believe it or not, Cozens’ on-ice scoring chances have increased from 2022-23, although a much more significant chunk of them have been low-quality. He must find a way to get inside the slot and create more high-quality looks. Sabres fans have been pulling their hair out watching him miss wide-open nets all season long, but he hasn’t forgotten how to shoot the puck suddenly. It’s only a matter of time before we start to see that shooting percentage rise. The goals will come.
Tage Thompson Hasn’t Hit His Stride
After a monster season in 2022-23, Tage Thompson sought an encore performance in 2023-24. It hasn’t happened just yet. After a slow start, he was injured while blocking a shot, causing him to miss nine games. When he has been in the lineup, he has experienced problems similar to Cozens in that he is suffering from a lack of finish and too many low-quality chances. The powerplay has also been an uncharacteristic struggle for Thompson. I don’t expect him to come close to 50 goals again this season, but I am relatively confident that an offensive heater is coming.
Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner Have Lacked Chemistry
When Alex Tuch is on top of his game, turning over pucks and being one of the best forecheckers in the league, he is a nightmare to play against. Unfortunately for him, despite being on pace for a career-high in takeaways this season, his teammates aren’t capitalizing when he wins pucks. His on-ice shooting percentage of 9.2 is by far the lowest he’s experienced since joining the Sabres and continuing with the theme of the rest of the Sabres’ top players, he isn’t getting the high-quality looks he was last season.
Tuch has spent more time next to Skinner than any other forward, and their lack of synergy this season is problematic. His expected goal share with Skinner is an abysmal 45.25%, but it rises to 60.16% without him. Skinner’s numbers also improve away from Tuch, albeit by a lesser degree. One of the keys to getting those two going is to separate them. Hopefully, head coach Don Granato will give them a long look on different lines when Tuch returns from injury.
Future Outlook
The Sabres’ season is on the brink of unraveling. They find themselves well out of the playoff picture without any consistent stretches of success up to this point. The middle six players have stepped up. If the Sabres are going to turn things around, their top guys need to start playing like their top guys. Cozens should see his numbers regress to the mean after a start that has seen his finishing ability dip to unsustainably low levels. The top six have struggled to generate high-quality chances, and the powerplay has dramatically disappointed.
To make matters worse, Granato has put Skinner and Tuch together far too often this season. The duo has been a mess, but they have shown signs of promise when separated. A lot needs to change for the Sabres to get on a roll, but if Granato makes the proper adjustments both tactically and with his line combinations, there may still be hope.
