When the Montreal Canadiens beat the Nashville Predators on Thursday night, it marked a meeting between two of the NHL’s lower-tier teams. Heading into 2024-25, it wasn’t supposed to be that way. While the Habs were long shots to make the playoffs, there was undeniable optimism in the air, especially following the offseason acquisition of Patrik Laine. Then he got hurt in the preseason, contributing to how the Canadiens have staggered to American Thanksgiving, which in turn has concretized any doubt they could sneak in as so much as a wild-card team.
The fact is, the Canadiens extending their stay at bottom of the standings was always a strong possibility. For the Predators to take a step back like they have, to have posted the fewest wins of any team in the NHL in early December (seven), after making the playoffs last season? It was inconceivable, especially when so many suggested their offseason had gone incredibly well, with their unrestricted-free-agent signings of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault (and to a lesser extent Brady Skjei).
As a perpetual bubble team for all intents and purposes, without a second-round appearance since 2018, maybe general manager Barry Trotz felt like he had to do something. However, not just in hindsight, but practically speaking, at the time, locking up a soon-to-be 35-year-old Stamkos (four years, $32 million) and 34-year-old Marchessault (five years, $27.5 million) was not the way to do it.
Stamkos Never a Realistic Canadiens Target
There’s no doubt some analysts suggested Stamkos would be a good fit with the Canadiens as he approached free agency, especially considering his connection to head coach Martin St. Louis, with whom he played early in his career. And, coming off a very productive 40-goal, 81-point season with the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Canadiens would have been lucky to have him… with certain conditions, namely just for a season or two. However, anyone that indulged the fans’ baser instincts, suggesting Stamkos would look good in a Canadiens jersey, was rendering them a disservice, downplaying how unlikely it was going to be that Stamkos would be okay signing a short-term deal.
Related: Canadiens Have Bigger Storms to Chase than Lightning’s Stamkos as UFA
The Canadiens were never going to sign Stamkos as a placeholder for an up-and-coming prospect. More accurately, he was never going to sign with them and leave job security on the table, not to join a rebuilding team. There would be no logic in a long-term deal either, as the Habs would be tying themselves to a star player on the inevitable decline as they would be getting set to start contending. A contract like Stamkos’ only serves to handicap instead of help come a certain point. And lo and behold, with only seven goals to date, he’s been about as productive for the Predators as Brendan Gallagher, the poster child for bad contracts ($6.5 million cap hit), has been for the Habs.
With or without Gallagher’s quasi-impressive production renaissance, the Canadiens would probably love to trade his deal like yesterday. Even with the degree to which Stamkos is struggling, they’d probably prefer to have him instead of Gallagher, no doubt. However, it was never about the viability of Stamkos as an acquisition in the immediate future. It should have always been about his viability in Years 3 and beyond, which is when Gallagher’s expires. Stamkos will still be under contract. It just so happens scorer’s block has hit him harder and sooner than anyone anticipated, making Year 4 look incredibly bad. That’s the point at which you’d have to believe the Canadiens would prefer Gallagher’s (non-)deal to Stamkos in his late thirties.
Marchessault Chooses Predators over Canadiens
The same goes for Marchessault, who will also be 38 years of age by the time his contract expires (in five years instead of four for Stamkos). He also has 13 points in 27 games, like Stamkos. The difference is the Canadiens had an actual shot with him, the term evidently having been the main hang-up that prevented him from signing with his home-province team. General manager Kent Hughes reportedly balked at the prospect of offering the term the Predators did, which should have been celebrated by Habs fans at the time. It shows Hughes is keeping the big picture in mind.
It’s why Laine, who’s currently only 26 with just two years left on his deal, made sense as someone the Canadiens should actually pursue. It’s why the Canadiens aren’t in straits as dire as some may suggest. Things can be worse, looking at the Predators as an example.
Here’s a team many expected to be in the league’s upper echelon, without the same benefit of a prospect/young-player pool anywhere close to as deep as what the Canadiens have. Not only that, but, as the Habs are still rebuilding, things are far from as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe. This not the time to search for scapegoats when the team wasn’t going to be winning anyway. This is the time to preach patience and a need not to rush things.
There will come a time when free agency makes sense for the Canadiens. And, in the Predators’ defense, if you’re coming off a 99-point season, there’s a case that it was their time. However, they made a huge mistake. When you go the free-agency route, you’re likely always going to overpay. That’s just the nature of the beast. Overpaying AND rolling the dice to the degree the Predators did that both Stamkos and Marchessault will continue producing well into the twilights of their careers is a needless risk. If you sign anyone of any significance, make sure a) the term aligns with your team’s timeline and b) they’re less than 30 to start, which Laine still will be once his current contract expires in 2026, but that’s neither here nor there.
In the Predators’ case, they did a), but pretty much actively ignored b) as if it were an ex they saw on the street. Now, Stamkos and Marchessault may yet bounce back. It’s a stretch that this is going to be as good as it gets for them over the course of these current contracts. However, what should be abundantly clear is things were never going to be as rosy as analysts with those early hot takes or even the Predators themselves thought or suggested.
Laine a Much Better Acquisition for Canadiens
In Laine’s case, should the Canadiens try to re-sign him in two years, it will make sense, because they’d be investing in someone who has presumably already established themselves as a good fit (taking into account the admittedly small two-game sample size). Things can obviously still take a turn for the worse, but the degree to which management committed to him is negligeable.
The Canadiens can walk away in a worst-case scenario… trade him to get something back in return in a not-so-worst-case scenario, because, despite his cap hit, he’s only 26, still in his theoretical prime and holds value that can be built back up. Both Stamkos and Marchessault (modified) each have no-movement clauses, in case you couldn’t see where this was going.
Taking a huge chance on someone you don’t know fits in your organization? You may as well pay a new tattoo artist to do your back, without a mirror in the vicinity, and ask them to surprise you. If it ends up being a disaster, you may blame them, but who’s the genius who gave them a blank canvas and cheque? Here’s the mirror you neglected to use when it actually could have helped.
Revisiting Pierre-Luc Dubois with Capitals in Town
There are some parallels to be drawn to the Pierre-Luc Dubois situation here, especially in light of calls once upon a time that the reported asking price was Kirby Dach. Obviously, Dach is having a hard time reacclimating himself to NHL life after missing all but two games in 2023-24 due to injury. However, at the time, he was proving himself to be invaluable.
In contrast, Dubois, who eventually got traded to the Los Angeles Kings by the Winnipeg Jets, was going to his third team in eight seasons (now four in nine, with the Washington Capital, whom the Canadiens coincidentally face on Saturday, Dec. 7). It was kind of a flag, especially when his father is a member of the Jets organization. If he couldn’t make it work there, well finish that sentence as well you can. Now, the Caps have to finish theirs, in Year 2 of 8 of his current deal. He has just three goals and 17 points so far this season. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they’re not worth his $8.5 million hit. And, when you dive into free agency, you’re overpaying for players with far less upside.
It’s not a perfect comparison, as Dubois was never an unrestricted free agent. However, he serves as one more cautionary tale about the perils of going grocery shopping with your stomach when still hungry instead of with your head. The Canadiens shouldn’t close the door on signing a superstar talent, but they also shouldn’t let just anyone in on the say-so of complete strangers, analysts included. Maybe it’s a moot point because of the general trouble the Habs have signing players. However, it’s also a blessing in disguise if it helps prevent disasters like with the Predators.
The fact Hughes could have signed Marchessault, but didn’t because he didn’t want to give him term is a sign the Canadiens are in better shape than many want to acknowledge. Things are far from perfect, but it’s still easy to envision a future about which it’s easy to get excited. Maybe that was true for many of the Predators back on July 1. However, even in the rosiest of outlooks, if Stamkos were to stay extremely productive until Age 38 despite all logic pointing to the contrary, you’re looking at a four-year golden era. That’s it. The Canadiens are looking to build one that’s longer-lasting. They don’t need to be a bubble team just to satisfy the desire of a select few. Bubbles burst and good teams aren’t necessarily bought. They can be (re)built. It’s clear what strategy the Canadiens are taking. At least looking at the alternative in direct competition, it looks like the better one, by far.
