As playoff eliminations pile up and free agency draws closer, it’s easy for teams and their fans to get their heads stuck in clouds, playing “what if?” However, Montreal Canadiens fans really don’t need to run their imaginations too wild at the notion of the Habs signing Tampa Bay Lightning star Steven Stamkos. There’s one simple reason: It’s inherently unlikely.
Granted, lightning only needs to strike once. However, in the event that it does, chances are fairly decent it would be an unmitigated disaster. Stamkos is of course still a star player, having scored 40 goals and 81 points this past season and 575 points over his expiring eight-year contract (513 games). That’s a huge testament to his skill, more so than his status as a former first-overall pick.
Stamkos Stays Productive into Twilight of Career
However, even though Stamkos impressively stayed productive over the entirety of the deal, a few undeniable facts must be acknowledged before any potential suitors commit to him, presumably over the course of another potentially long-term contract (and based on his production you’d better believe he’s looking for term). He’s also 34, and, while that means 35-plus contract handicaps don’t apply, he’s still presumably as vulnerable to the passage of time as everyone else.
In fact, signs of decline became apparent before he re-signed with the Lightning, when Stamkos was just 26. A point-per-game player or better from his sophomore to sixth seasons in the league, Stamkos dipped below that mark for two straight campaigns before he first hit free agency in 2016. His subsequent increase in production coincided with the debut of teammate Brayden Point, who soon established himself as a star, and the emergence of Nikita Kucherov as a superstar himself. They alleviated the defensive focus on Stamkos by other teams as well as the pressure on him to produce.
Needless to say, the Canadiens lack the same level of talent to properly insulate Stamkos. He quite realistically has one or two really good years left, but he shouldn’t be expected to carry a team at this stage of his career, because he hasn’t in some time. And, after finishing 15 points out of a playoff spot this season, it’s unlikely Stamkos alone pushes the Habs over the top. The Canadiens will obviously experience organic growth on their own. Such is simply the nature of a young team that increased from 55 to 68 to 76 points in the standings since 2021.
It begs the question, though: Even if Stamkos is enough to get them over the hump in 2024-25 or the season after that, is the projected burden of his albatross contract worth it, when his cap hit exceeds his contributions to the team, hindering their ability to sign someone new when it best aligns with their window to otherwise contend for the Stanley Cup? The way things are going, it’s a matter of time before it happens on its own, without Stamkos.
Canadiens Don’t Need a Stamkos Right Now
With that, this isn’t an argument against signing unrestricted free agents to big contracts. Obviously, if you do, you’re always going to be shouldering risk it backfires. However, there are ways to minimize that risk. Way #1: Avoid signing 34-year-olds to long-term contracts. Way #2: Avoid making huge waves via free agency when the team as a whole will have to play catch up to the player(s) you’re signing. Otherwise, it amounts to little more than a waste of an investment. It’s not rocket science.
If you’re going to sign a significant contract, the time to go all-in on a specific free agent is ideally the point at which Stamkos was in his career the last time around: Age 26 or thereabouts, so that you take advantage of their prime production years (as much as possible). It isn’t nearly a decade later and it certainly isn’t when you’re actively looking to deal other bad contracts attached to players taking up roster spots. There’s a lesson to be learnt there, but only if you’re willing.
Related: 5 Worst Canadiens Contracts for 2023-24 Season
On the subject of the time at which Stamkos signed his last contract, remember he had a chance to leave the Lightning. He even entertained pitches from other teams, including the Canadiens. Ultimately, he made the decision to stay put, seemingly much to the chagrin of his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs and their fans. So, if he decided to ironically take a hometown discount last time to stay with the Lightning, why wouldn’t he now?
Maybe it’s naïve to assume the status quo will hold true once again, because so much else has changed. However, even though the Lightning are one of the few teams higher above the cap ceiling based on their final hit compared to the Canadiens, they do have several expiring contracts. It seems equally naïve if not more so that the Bolts wouldn’t be able to find some room to re-sign Stamkos (their captain) if there’s still at least some interest on his part.
Stamkos Seems Committed to Lightning
Circumstances obviously change. However, Stamkos was quoted as saying at the time, “I made the decision to stay with the team that drafted me and brought me up as an 18-year-old kid. It’s my second home now.” Those circumstances haven’t changed, one would assume. So, regarding talk amongst analysts of Stamkos having potentially played his last game with the Lightning after their recent elimination at the hands of the Florida Panthers?
Some perspective is needed.
Oh, it’s possible Stamkos wants to play for Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis, with Vincent Lecavalier, another of his ex-teammates, also employed by the team (in an advisory role). However, are those ties more significant than the ones he’s forged with his current teammates, with whom he’s won multiple Stanley Cups? When it’s literally been a decade since he last played with the former, 11 years the latter? That’s hard to believe, especially when he rejected the nostalgic allure of playing for the Leafs eight years ago.
Hughes Has Higher Priorities for Rebuilding Canadiens
Look at it this way: Stamkos actually has more history with Toronto… and more time spent in his career playing without the two Hall of Famers than he does with. It’s that simple. Perhaps St. Louis wants to coach Stamkos and would be more than willing to make an emotional, convincing pitch to him to help sway any decision he has to make. However, that’s not his decision to make. It’s general manager Kent Hughes’ and he’s got significantly higher priorities than unrestricted free agency this offseason.
Some may argue that you make it a priority when a player of Stamkos’ calibre becomes available. If the John Tavares sweepstakes of 2018 are any indication, it happens every so often. And the Leafs and/or their fans would be lying if they said there’s no hint of buyer’s remorse there.
Obviously, Stamkos’ latest deal shows that there are exceptions to the rule that all big-market free-agent signings hurt come a certain point. You can argue that Stamkos was 26 instead of Tavares’ 28 years at the time of their respective signings, so it made more sense. There’s some truth in that, but there’s even more truth in the following:
No one’s talking about signing a 28-year or even a 26-year-old. Stamkos is 34. Taken everything else into account, that one callback should serve as a sobering spring shower to wake proponents of pursuing him up from their fever dreams. There is no “what if?” He is again 34. There are no “ands” or “buts,” just undeniable reality that this can’t and won’t work.
