Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes might be a victim of his own offseason success ever since getting hired a few years ago. That’s if fan and analyst expectations are anything to go by, as many assume he’ll make a big trade whether at or in the lead-up to the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, like ke did in 2022 (Kirby Dach) and 2023 (Alex Newhook).
Barring that, maybe Hughes will be active in free agency? Some have even suggested that, of all players, Steven Stamkos may be a good fit. Don’t let the fact he’s not (or that he’s unlikely to be interested in signing with anyone but again with the Tampa Bay Lightning based on past history) get in the way of a good narrative.
Canadiens Lack Elite Top-Six Talent
There is undeniably some justification behind the desire on the part of Canadiens fans for Hughes to improve the team’s offense. After all, while the Canadiens have significant forward depth in terms of their number of NHL-calibre players, they lack top-six talent, at least elite top-six talent, to the point they finished 26th in the league in goals scored (232).
In contrast, the Canadiens were among the league leaders in terms of goals by defensemen (48). Especially with the pipeline filled to the brim with young defensemen, it does make sense for the Canadiens to ship out someone on defense for more help up front, at least superficially speaking. However, it doesn’t need to be this offseason. It really doesn’t even have to be all of next season.
Justin Barron will be eligible for waivers for the first time. If he stays, that gives the Canadiens seven NHL defensemen with relatively extensive NHL experience, each of whom should be expected to stick with the team out of training camp (barring an offseason trade): Mike Matheson, David Savard, Johnathan Kovacevic, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj and Jordan Harris. Seven is manageable, but admittedly less than ideal given there are high hopes surrounding how Barron and the latter three develop. The easy, albeit imperfect fix is to simply rotate several in and out of the lineup.
The Canadiens admittedly have several defensemen on the cusp of promotion from the American Hockey League. For example, Jayden Struble took huge steps towards establishing himself as a NHL regular last season by playing 56 games. However, after a strong start, he struggled down the stretch, suggesting both he and the Canadiens could benefit from taking advantage of his waiver-exempt status.
So, it shouldn’t be controversial to similarly suggest the Canadiens should take their time with the likes of rookies Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher in the AHL, at a position where players are widely acknowledged to take more time to develop properly, at least for next season as the contracts of Kovacevic and Savard expire.
Canadiens Have No Room to Add to Forward Group
So, all that to say, the Canadiens don’t absolutely need to trade a defenseman this offseason for extra top-six help. Despite the fact the top-six could use an upgrade on paper, in practice there isn’t room for anyone else. The top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky is at little risk of being broken up as a fairly cohesive, offensively capable unit. Meanwhile, Dach is projected to return from a season-long injury to centre the second line, which could realistically feature a wide variety of wingers.
Arguably the likeliest combination is Dach between Newhook and Josh Anderson. Anderson, despite having struggled immensely this past season, remains under contract for the next three at a cap hit of $5.5 million per. While no one should love his inclusion here, there would be a method to the Canadiens’ madness, putting him in the best position to succeed to salvage something out of the situation. They can’t do that if they bury him in the lineup, even if a true meritocracy would dictate he plays on the fourth line or worse.
The progression, presumably straight into a permanent NHL position, of Joshua Roy is an example of the amount of options the Canadiens have. Prospects with realistic, on-the-cusp-of-the-NHL aspirations like Owen Beck, Emil Heineman, Oliver Kapanen and Filip Mesar serve as proof the Habs aren’t exactly starving for talent to round out the rest of the lineup in the near to medium-term future. So, what’s the rush to make a move this specific offseason?
Necas vs. Zegras
Obviously players like Martin Necas and Trevor Zegras are reported to be available in the present. However, they would each cost a pretty penny. You could maybe argue Necas would be worth the projected price tag of Xhekaj and a first/second-round pick, in the sense Necas is already a legitimate top-six, maybe top-line forward, while Xhekaj arguably tops out as a top-four defenseman, if he reaches his potential.
However, players like the physical, yet relatively mobile and offensively capable Xhekaj, at a massive 6-foot-4, 240 pounds, are worth their weight in gold come the playoffs. Plus, as he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury for the second year in a row, it’s hard to believe the Carolina Hurricanes would actually move forward with any hypothetical deal of the sort, when they have many suitors from which to choose.
In Zegras’ case, the reported price tag of Guhle/Reinbacher should be a non-starter as the Canadiens clearly believe in both as future pillars of the defense for years to come. Granted, to get something in the NHL, you need to give something up, but they arguably passed on several elite forwards in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft to take a right-handed defenseman in Reinbacher. Like Reinbacher or not, believe he reaches his ceiling or not, it makes no sense for the Canadiens to turn around and trade him for Zegras, especially when the latter is coming off a disappointing season and is widely considered to be overrated. Of course, if there’s any time to trade for a player, it’s when his stock is low, but giving up a player the Canadiens see as a top-pairing defenseman would be odd when an established Zegras failed to gain traction up a fairly weak Anaheim Ducks lineup last season.
Hughes Unjustifiably Under the Gun
Undeniably speaking, Hughes faces heightened expectations relative to the success the Canadiens enjoy in the standings next season. However, those expectations shouldn’t extend to this summer, when Hughes’ actual list of offseason priorities is fairly well-defined. Securing a top-six forward is more so a luxury than necessity.
Related: What Canadiens Will Do This Offseason, Beyond a Reasonable Doubt
No one should expect the Canadiens to become Stanley Cup contenders over the summer. They should instead count on organic growth through the development of their younger players instead. The thing about organic growth is it by definition happens on its own.
Now, Hughes shouldn’t avoid making moves altogether. However, if he manages to pull one off, it should be seen as more of a pleasant surprise (a la Mike Hoffman trade from last summer) rather than something that absolutely needs to/or will happen, which brings up an interesting point: It should be about addition by subtraction up front, to make room for prospects, rather than simple addition of top-six talent. Why not have faith in the team’s drafting/developmental system thus far under this new regime? Trust they made the right selections in the past, like Reinbacher, rather than have them ship out that young talent for other young talent?
Granted, it’s all been speculation in the media up to now. However that speculation unjustly raises fan expectations, setting Hughes up for failure, when he’s done little to warrant being doubted. His track record speaks for itself, which doesn’t mean he should be seen as infallible… only fully capable of assessing the market, whether it be the trade market or free agency, and determining whether making a move is justified or not.
The fact is the Canadiens will be all right even if Hughes doesn’t make a big splash this summer. At this point, a little more fan patience might be more valuable than a move he feels pressured to make, when the demands of other teams or free agents are as high as they are. That may not be the sexy narrative, but, believe it or not, it is the one that best aligns with Hughes’ modus operandi up to now, having a good sense of what the Habs need… and what they don’t.
