The 2023-24 season has been underwhelming for the New York Islanders, while the Montreal Canadiens have overachieved. Injuries and poor coaching have hurt the Islanders, placing them in a tough playoff race. For the Canadiens, goaltender Sam Montembeault has emerged as a starter, boasting a 12-8-4 record on the presumed bottom-feeders. Thanks to his play, the Canadiens will be less likely to finish with a top-five pick in the draft.
However, general manager Kent Hughes is expected to stick with his preseason plan and sell at this year’s trade deadline, and Mike Matheson could be the biggest asset on the move.
Timing for Kent Hughes is Perfect
The timing for Hughes could not be better. At a point when top assets are expected to fetch massive hauls, capitalizing on Matheson’s value could help set the franchise up well for the future. Matheson, who will be 30 years old by the deadline, is nearing the end of his prime but on a very team-friendly contract of roughly $4.8 million with two seasons remaining after this one.
His 7 goals and 39 points in 52 games lead another top defenseman on the market, Noah Hanifin of the Calgary Flames, who has 29 points in 53 games. While Canadiens defensemen Jordan Harris and Kaiden Guhle suffered injuries over the weekend, Hughes is sure to peruse the market to gauge the value of his top assets. While the Matheson speculation has been quiet, fans know that Hughes is not afraid to make a deal.
With Hampus Lindholm’s trade to the Boston Bruins in 2022 for comparison, Hanifin will fetch around a first-round pick, two second-round picks, a prospect, and a cap dump, if necessary. Considering Matheson is playing better than Hanifin and has an extra two years on his contract, the Canadiens may be able to get even more.
While the Islanders do not have a lot to offer, a trade could work.
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Firstly, adding Matheson would make a lot of sense for the Islanders. While the Alexander Romanov-Noah Dobson pairing has worked well this season, they have a 48.4 expected goals percentage (xG%), according to Moneypuck. Finding Dobson a partner who is better at driving offense while simultaneously pushing Romanov into a more defensive-orientated role down the lineup would add depth to the overall defense. Matheson can also slot in well on the second power-play unit, an area of struggle for the team in recent years.
For Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello, going all-in on a rental would not be wise, especially considering the playoffs are far from guaranteed. But acquiring a player with term is the best way to buy while also looking toward the future.
Islanders’ Offer
What the Islanders have to offer is pretty standard: French Canadian prospect William Dufour, a protected first-round pick, a 2024 second-round pick, and a conditional 2025 third-round pick – the condition on the pick is if the Islanders reach the Eastern Conference Final in either the 2024 or 2025 NHL Playoffs when the pick becomes a 2025 second-round pick.
For the Canadiens, they are getting a first-round pick that can be used to move up, if needed, and they would be clearing space for their younger defenseman to shine. With Guhle cementing himself as an elite young defenseman, Jayden Struble impressing in his rookie season, and Lane Hutson expected to push for an NHL spot next season, making space on the left-side defense is almost inevitable and prolonging Matheson’s departure would be unwise, especially for a team with zero playoff aspirations.
While Matheson may not be in daily trade rumors, he possesses everything a team looking to buy could want, and his prime does not line up well with the Canadiens. While holding onto him would provide value to the young roster, shipping him out would be better in the long run. If the Islanders decide to buy at the deadline, look for a skater with a similar profile to Matheson to be acquired.